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Forums - Nintendo - Will Nintendo debut new tech half way through this gen??

Mr Khan on 26 March 2014
Seece said:
Nem said:

Doubt it. Nintendo has been showing they are slow to react and doing that would be a terrible mistake in the first place. So, unless they somehow plan to unite their portable and home console markets, its just not likely.

Assumptions that having a new console that is more powerful would land better support are highly unfounded. The Vita waves.

Totally agree, it wouldn't do a whole lot for Nintendo as it's only partially the problem. Like I said in the OP, their best bet going forward is to unify their handheld and home console. With 3DS coming in 2010? Maybe we'll see that sooner than they anticpated.

2011

Though that is the solution that has been most discussed, due to technological feasibility and how it would fix their game output problem (in part. Second part is buying more studios or forging more partnerships)



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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Seece on 26 March 2014
Mr Khan said:
Seece said:
Nem said:

Doubt it. Nintendo has been showing they are slow to react and doing that would be a terrible mistake in the first place. So, unless they somehow plan to unite their portable and home console markets, its just not likely.

Assumptions that having a new console that is more powerful would land better support are highly unfounded. The Vita waves.

Totally agree, it wouldn't do a whole lot for Nintendo as it's only partially the problem. Like I said in the OP, their best bet going forward is to unify their handheld and home console. With 3DS coming in 2010? Maybe we'll see that sooner than they anticpated.

2011

Though that is the solution that has been most discussed, due to technological feasibility and how it would fix their game output problem (in part. Second part is buying more studios or forging more partnerships)

It would be incredibly interesting to watch, would handheld only buyers be put off or still buy and vice verser for home consoles. Overall sales would be down because it's being sold as 1 item rather than 2, but it could prove to almost guarantee an acceptable level of sales (50m+) as no way would a Nintendo handheld and home console in the same gen do less than that.

If I were Nintendo that would be my plan of action, that and buying up a few western parties, maturing the company image (not at the expense of their IPS tho) and would allow NoE and NoA to have more say in things.



 

Soundwave on 26 March 2014

I think Nintendo will release their Quality of Life line in spring 2015 and then a new portable in November 2015 (worldwide).

They desperately need new profit generators or this streak of operating losses is going to become 5/6/7 years without an operating profit. The Wii U is a dud and 3DS is declining YoY, that's not a formula for profitability.



zorg1000 on 26 March 2014
Seece said:
snowdog said:
The 3DS is selling fine. What's the point of this thread..?

It's down in every region, down 50% in Japan, and is trending to sell less than 10m this year. For a Nintendo handheld to continuously drop it's not good, it actually peaked in the US in its first year and has stayed at that level ever since.

I agree it's fine right now, I'm just forward thinking. What if it drops from sub 10m this year to sub 7m next year? That's dying platform (PS360 last year) levels isn't it?

Ill bet u it sells over 10 million this year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Seece on 26 March 2014
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
snowdog said:
The 3DS is selling fine. What's the point of this thread..?

It's down in every region, down 50% in Japan, and is trending to sell less than 10m this year. For a Nintendo handheld to continuously drop it's not good, it actually peaked in the US in its first year and has stayed at that level ever since.

I agree it's fine right now, I'm just forward thinking. What if it drops from sub 10m this year to sub 7m next year? That's dying platform (PS360 last year) levels isn't it?

Ill bet u it sells over 10 million this year.

I don't do bets, but I would bet against that.

US is down (again) 25% yoy so far and that trends around 2.8 - 3m (down from 3.8m) Europe is similar but slightly less than US. Japan was 4.9m last year, if it continues at being down 50%~ YOY that's a whopping loss of 2.45m there.

US - 3m
Europe - 2.5m
Japan - 2.5m
Rest of WW 10% - 800k~

WW = 8.8m.

Unless we see intervention from Nintendo this is the trending forecast. What will Nintendo do to rectify that? Another Pokemon? Another redesign? Another price cut? Isn't that all a bit too soon?  Redesign and Pokemon gave a good boost but nothing near what was expected, and 3DS is already very cheap, you can get a 2DS in the UK for like £70 if you shop around, insane.



 

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gergroy on 26 March 2014

Nintendo would be just fine releasing some remodels I think. Wii u just needs to be completely reintroduced to the public. Do a remodel and massive advert campaign coupled with a small price cut and I actually think it could take off pretty well. 3ds is fine, simple remodel and a couple new games and it will continue to sell like hot cakes...



DevilRising on 26 March 2014

No. Reasons why this would be incredibly stupid have been discussed ad-nauseum. This topic need to die, and quit resurfacing. These boards could really benefit from some sort of "hey, here's a main thread that was already started about this very topic" type of effort from the moderators. Just saying.



tbone51 on 26 March 2014
supernihilist said:

why this guy cant keep making Nintendo threads is baffling, its close to be a obsession

Moderated,

-Mr Khan


:-<



zorg1000 on 27 March 2014
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
snowdog said:
The 3DS is selling fine. What's the point of this thread..?

It's down in every region, down 50% in Japan, and is trending to sell less than 10m this year. For a Nintendo handheld to continuously drop it's not good, it actually peaked in the US in its first year and has stayed at that level ever since.

I agree it's fine right now, I'm just forward thinking. What if it drops from sub 10m this year to sub 7m next year? That's dying platform (PS360 last year) levels isn't it?

Ill bet u it sells over 10 million this year.

I don't do bets, but I would bet against that.

US is down (again) 25% yoy so far and that trends around 2.8 - 3m (down from 3.8m) Europe is similar but slightly less than US. Japan was 4.9m last year, if it continues at being down 50%~ YOY that's a whopping loss of 2.45m there.

US - 3m
Europe - 2.5m
Japan - 2.5m
Rest of WW 10% - 800k~

WW = 8.8m.

Unless we see intervention from Nintendo this is the trending forecast. What will Nintendo do to rectify that? Another Pokemon? Another redesign? Another price cut? Isn't that all a bit too soon?  Redesign and Pokemon gave a good boost but nothing near what was expected, and 3DS is already very cheap, you can get a 2DS in the UK for like £70 if you shop around, insane.

This summer it will be 3 years since the first price cut, 2 years since the XL released which is still at its original price, and almost 1 year since 2DS launch. its not out of the realm of possibility that they get $30-40 price cuts this year, 2DS-$99, 3DS-$129, XL-$159 with further drops/bundles over the holidays. And yes 2DS is very cheap but the XL is still the most popular sku showing that people are willing to spend extra for the premium sku just like the $600 PS3 was selling better than the $500 PS3 and the $400 360 was outselling the $300 360 and the $350 Wii U was outselling the $300 Wii U.

There are also some big games that could cause boosts and prevent 3DS from dropping so fast. Monster Hunter 4G in Japan, Smash Bros could be huge since its the first handheld game of the series. Pokemon Z or Gen 3 remakes, Dragon Quest 11 is possible for the holidays or early 2015. Also smaller potential games that can give reasonable boosts like Persona Q, Final Fantasy Theatrythm, Kirby, Mario Golf, Metroid, Majora's Mask 3D, an original Donkey Kong game, Kid Icarus sequel, Mario 3D Land 2, Advance Wars, Golden Sun, Fire Emblem sequel, Bravely Second, Monster Hunter 5, Final Fantasy remakes/spinoffs.

There is still plenty of games that could release on 3DS  to ensure it doesnt have huge YoY drops. 3DS has been pretty consistant, selling between 13-15 million each year and I expect it to do 10-13 million this year, 7-10 milllion next year and have a successor in 2016.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Soundwave on 27 March 2014
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
snowdog said:
The 3DS is selling fine. What's the point of this thread..?

It's down in every region, down 50% in Japan, and is trending to sell less than 10m this year. For a Nintendo handheld to continuously drop it's not good, it actually peaked in the US in its first year and has stayed at that level ever since.

I agree it's fine right now, I'm just forward thinking. What if it drops from sub 10m this year to sub 7m next year? That's dying platform (PS360 last year) levels isn't it?

Ill bet u it sells over 10 million this year.

I don't do bets, but I would bet against that.

US is down (again) 25% yoy so far and that trends around 2.8 - 3m (down from 3.8m) Europe is similar but slightly less than US. Japan was 4.9m last year, if it continues at being down 50%~ YOY that's a whopping loss of 2.45m there.

US - 3m
Europe - 2.5m
Japan - 2.5m
Rest of WW 10% - 800k~

WW = 8.8m.

Unless we see intervention from Nintendo this is the trending forecast. What will Nintendo do to rectify that? Another Pokemon? Another redesign? Another price cut? Isn't that all a bit too soon?  Redesign and Pokemon gave a good boost but nothing near what was expected, and 3DS is already very cheap, you can get a 2DS in the UK for like £70 if you shop around, insane.

This summer it will be 3 years since the first price cut, 2 years since the XL released which is still at its original price, and almost 1 year since 2DS launch. its not out of the realm of possibility that they get $30-40 price cuts this year, 2DS-$99, 3DS-$129, XL-$159 with further drops/bundles over the holidays. And yes 2DS is very cheap but the XL is still the most popular sku showing that people are willing to spend extra for the premium sku just like the $600 PS3 was selling better than the $500 PS3 and the $400 360 was outselling the $300 360 and the $350 Wii U was outselling the $300 Wii U.

There are also some big games that could cause boosts and prevent 3DS from dropping so fast. Monster Hunter 4G in Japan, Smash Bros could be huge since its the first handheld game of the series. Pokemon Z or Gen 3 remakes, Dragon Quest 11 is possible for the holidays or early 2015. Also smaller potential games that can give reasonable boosts like Persona Q, Final Fantasy Theatrythm, Kirby, Mario Golf, Metroid, Majora's Mask 3D, an original Donkey Kong game, Kid Icarus sequel, Mario 3D Land 2, Advance Wars, Golden Sun, Fire Emblem sequel, Bravely Second, Monster Hunter 5, Final Fantasy remakes/spinoffs.

There is still plenty of games that could release on 3DS  to ensure it doesnt have huge YoY drops. 3DS has been pretty consistant, selling between 13-15 million each year and I expect it to do 10-13 million this year, 7-10 milllion next year and have a successor in 2016.


3DS peak year in shipments was 13.8 million. It's never gone above 14 million as far as I know. So 13.8 is probably the peak, it will be down every year from now on most likely.