Will Nintendo debut new tech half way through this gen??

[zorg1000]

Seece said:

zorg1000 said:

Seece said:

snowdog said:
The 3DS is selling fine. What's the point of this thread..?

It's down in every region, down 50% in Japan, and is trending to sell less than 10m this year. For a Nintendo handheld to continuously drop it's not good, it actually peaked in the US in its first year and has stayed at that level ever since.

I agree it's fine right now, I'm just forward thinking. What if it drops from sub 10m this year to sub 7m next year? That's dying platform (PS360 last year) levels isn't it?

Ill bet u it sells over 10 million this year.

I don't do bets, but I would bet against that.

US is down (again) 25% yoy so far and that trends around 2.8 - 3m (down from 3.8m) Europe is similar but slightly less than US. Japan was 4.9m last year, if it continues at being down 50%~ YOY that's a whopping loss of 2.45m there.

US - 3m
Europe - 2.5m
Japan - 2.5m
Rest of WW 10% - 800k~

WW = 8.8m.

Unless we see intervention from Nintendo this is the trending forecast. What will Nintendo do to rectify that? Another Pokemon? Another redesign? Another price cut? Isn't that all a bit too soon?  Redesign and Pokemon gave a good boost but nothing near what was expected, and 3DS is already very cheap, you can get a 2DS in the UK for like £70 if you shop around, insane.

This summer it will be 3 years since the first price cut, 2 years since the XL released which is still at its original price, and almost 1 year since 2DS launch. its not out of the realm of possibility that they get $30-40 price cuts this year, 2DS-$99, 3DS-$129, XL-$159 with further drops/bundles over the holidays. And yes 2DS is very cheap but the XL is still the most popular sku showing that people are willing to spend extra for the premium sku just like the $600 PS3 was selling better than the $500 PS3 and the $400 360 was outselling the $300 360 and the $350 Wii U was outselling the $300 Wii U.

There are also some big games that could cause boosts and prevent 3DS from dropping so fast. Monster Hunter 4G in Japan, Smash Bros could be huge since its the first handheld game of the series. Pokemon Z or Gen 3 remakes, Dragon Quest 11 is possible for the holidays or early 2015. Also smaller potential games that can give reasonable boosts like Persona Q, Final Fantasy Theatrythm, Kirby, Mario Golf, Metroid, Majora's Mask 3D, an original Donkey Kong game, Kid Icarus sequel, Mario 3D Land 2, Advance Wars, Golden Sun, Fire Emblem sequel, Bravely Second, Monster Hunter 5, Final Fantasy remakes/spinoffs.

There is still plenty of games that could release on 3DS  to ensure it doesnt have huge YoY drops. 3DS has been pretty consistant, selling between 13-15 million each year and I expect it to do 10-13 million this year, 7-10 milllion next year and have a successor in 2016.