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Forums - Nintendo - 3DS is cannibalizing Wii U

zorg1000 on 27 March 2014
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
curl-6 said:
theshonen8899 said:
The Wii and DS both dominated within the same generation. Your point is moot.

Already addressed this: Wii and DS  were different enough that they did not cannibalize each other. Wii U and 3DS  are much more similar.

How?? I fail to see much difference. Gaming on a handheld and gaming on a tv are so completely different that I can't imagine it's an either or situation for anybody, even if the games are similar ...

 look at my post on the previous page. Why is gaming on a handheld and gaming on a TV so different?

Handheld gaming is more solitary, more mobile and generally has its own style, home consoles are the opposite. I can understand how someone is into one or the other, or both, but somebody deciding between the two? That's not happening en mass.

I dont have a link but I remember reading surveys that have shown most people play handhelds at home. I would agree with u on handhelds having there own style in the past but not anymore, look at the traditional Nintendo games on 3DS and Wii U, they are very similar like I stated in my last post meaning the 2 devices have similar styles. Wii U is basically an HD 3DS with half the support and twice the cost.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Soundwave on 27 March 2014
curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:

Let's look at the PS2 for a sec; it had a 150 million install base, and  yet...

- Goldeneye Rogue Agent barely sold more than Red Steel 2, despite being the sequel to a game that sold over 8 million.

- Critical darling Okami barely crossed 600k also.

- Silent Hill 4 barely crossed 500k, despite being from a popular series.

Clearly a big install base does not guarantee that every game will sell well.

But PS2 obviously had many instances of tons of hardcore games selling extremely well. The Wii does not. People used the Wii as their party console, but if they wanted to do any serious gaming beyond their Mario/Mario Kart sweet tooth, it's fairly obvious they bought one of the other two HD consoles. 

I had many friends that bought a Wii and were really excited about it in 2006/2007/2008, but by the second half of the generation, they were playing almost exclusively on their PS3 or 360 and rarely even bothering to boot up their Wii at all. 

There's also so many hours you can play Wii Sports before it starts to get stale. 

Core games outside of Mario could sell on Wii.

Twilight Princess is closing in on 7 million.

Monster Hunter Tri and Resident Evil 4 both cleared the 2 million mark.

Goldeneye 007 and Metroid Prime 3 are both about 1.8m. And if you count COD as "hardcore" in this context, then COD3, Wold at War, Modern Warfare, and Black Ops all sold between 1.3m and 2.2m.


That's fairly mediocre for a platform with 100 million sell through honestly. Zelda sold 5.8 million actually on the Wii, not 7 million, that's if you include GameCube numbers and that was buoyed a lot by the initial frenzy over the Wii. The PS4 and X1 will have 3+ million sellers in the core gamer demo before either of them hits 15 million sell through.

The best selling Wii third party games were predictably the casual ones -- Guitar Hero and Just Dance and Zumba Fitness and the like. 



nitekrawler1285 on 27 March 2014
Soundwave said:
nitekrawler1285 said:

Umm Cameron himself has managed to beat Titanic with Avatar. By almost a billion to boot if wikipedia can be believed.

 


He would be the exception to this rule but even there, I don't Avatar was quite the pop culture phenomenon that Titanic was. It benefitted a lot from higher ticket prices (especially the 3D markup). JK Rowling and Harry Potter is a more apt comparision ... fairly unlikely Rowling will ever top Harry Potter even if she writes a book 10x better. Things like that are just hard to repeat. 

What I'm getting at is that it may seem like a tall order but it can be done.  Even Apple managed 3 hits in a row.  Give Rowling some time.  I'm sure once she gets her more adult stuff out of her system and targetting the younger audience again that she might find success.  

Nintendo really just needs to go back to what made the Wii so successful.  A large part of that was the simple and intuitive controller. I can't even think they were trying to replicate the Wii's success looking at the huge and terrifying gamepad.  



Soundwave on 27 March 2014
nitekrawler1285 said:
Soundwave said:
nitekrawler1285 said:
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:
leyendax69 said:
curl-6 said:
leyendax69 said:

Nintendo is cannibalizing wii u -_- they just don't know how home console market works, every console since the SNES has sold less, wii was a miracle.

Wii wasn't a miracle, it was a conscious and brilliant insight into the market; insight they completely failed to exercise with Wii U.

Wii U is the antithesis of the Wii; the Wii's success was due to its recognition of a changing market, Wii U's failure is due to its lack of recognition of a changing market.

The whole point of the Wii was: do something that hasn't been done before, break new ground. The Wii U is just "try the same strategy that worked last time."

I do agree however that Nintendo is cannibalizing Wii U.

You can call it fluke, miracle, luck, whatever. The numbers are there and wii u is struggling to even surpass Gamecube.

It was none of those things; not a fluke, not luck, not a miracle. It was a deliberate, premeditated, and thought out smash hit.

The Wii U's struggles are due to the way it itself was handled; confusing name, too expensive, delayed software, but most importantly, a failure to account for the current market.

There's always a degree of serendipity when anything is that successful. 

Michael Jackson's Thriller is a miracle. So is James Cameron's Titanic. So is TV's Seinfeld. 

Of course these things were deliberate in their design, but to the degree that they are embraced by the public requires a certain amount of timing and (sure) luck. 

Because otherwise you should be able to make a hit product everytime just by execution and that's not always the way things work.

Michael Jackson tried his damndest to top Thriller multiple times but never could do it, because it's not that f*cking easy, lol. I think that's one thing Nintendo fans don't get, you can't just pull a Wiimote type idea out of your ass every 5 years, that's not how basic creativity works. That's an idea that comes around maybe once every 20 years. 

Not even Apple is capable of doing that ... they had an incredible streak with the iPod, iPhone, iPad, but since then haven't been able to come up with a new idea as strong as that ... because it's *difficult* to do (you think they haven't invested billions in trying to find the next big thing?).

Umm Cameron himself has managed to beat Titanic with Avatar. By almost a billion to boot if wikipedia can be believed.

 


He would be the exception to this rule but even there, I don't Avatar was quite the pop culture phenomenon that Titanic was. It benefitted a lot from higher ticket prices (especially the 3D markup). JK Rowling and Harry Potter is a more apt comparision ... fairly unlikely Rowling will ever top Harry Potter even if she writes a book 10x better. Things like that are just hard to repeat. 

What I'm getting at is that it may seem like a tall order but it can be done.  Even Apple managed 3 hits in a row.  Give Rowling some time.  I'm sure once she gets her more adult stuff out of her system and targetting the younger audience again that she might find success.  

Nintendo really just needs to go back to what made the Wii so successful.  A large part of that was the simple and intuitive controller. I can't even think they were trying to replicate the Wii's success looking at the huge and terrifying gamepad.  

You can write this down or take a picture of it -- JK Rowling will never, ever top Harry Potter. Ever. Ever. Never. Ever. Never.

Have people ever really considered that motion gaming simply has just ran its course as a phenomenon/sales driver? Kinect isn't doing sh*t fo the XBox One either, after a while jumping around in front of your TV pretending to play tennis gets stale. 

Motion gaming + mini-games as a craze may simply be like a hundred other popular movements in gaming -- like once upon a time 2D Fighters were the no.1 genre in gaming ... after about 5-6 years, that trend ran its course. 2D fighters were so popular at one point, I remember you had to line up at the freaking 7-11 to get in at lunch time so you could play Street Fighter II or Mortal Kombat. It was insane. It doesn't mean 2D fighters stopped existing, it just means they just normalized/declined in popularity. Just like music instrument games (Guitar Hero, Rock Band, DJ Hero, etc.), 7 years ago those were the hottest games, today not so much. Mascot platformers once upon a time were everything in the game business, now you don't need one to have success anymore (Sony doesn't need Crash Bandicoot any longer). Trends change. 



curl-6 on 27 March 2014
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:

Core games outside of Mario could sell on Wii.

Twilight Princess is closing in on 7 million.

Monster Hunter Tri and Resident Evil 4 both cleared the 2 million mark.

Goldeneye 007 and Metroid Prime 3 are both about 1.8m. And if you count COD as "hardcore" in this context, then COD3, Wold at War, Modern Warfare, and Black Ops all sold between 1.3m and 2.2m.


That's fairly mediocre for a platform with 100 million sell through honestly. Zelda sold 5.8 million actually on the Wii, not 7 million, that's if you include GameCube numbers and that was buoyed a lot by the initial frenzy over the Wii. The PS4 and X1 will have 3+ million sellers in the core gamer demo before either of them hits 15 million sell through.

The best selling Wii third party games were predictably the casual ones -- Guitar Hero and Just Dance and Zumba Fitness and the like. 

VGChartz has Twilight Princess on Wii at 6.94m. http://www.vgchartz.com/game/4573/the-legend-of-zelda-twilight-princess/

And there are plenty more that aren't party/fitness/Wii-Sports-type games: Mario Galaxy at 11m, Galaxy 2 at 7.2m, Donkey Kong Country Returns at 6.13m, Sonic Secret Rings and Unleashed  at over 2 million each, Skyward Sword at 3.7m.



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nitekrawler1285 on 27 March 2014
leyendax69 said:

Key word: Inflation. But yes, no one can deny Avatar was a huge sucess.

Even with inflation it's practically a tie.  According to Wikipedia titanic did 2.18 Billion. Checking the CPI inflation chart inflation from 1997 to 2009 seems to be about 33%  2.18* 1.336 = 2.894. Avatar did 2.78 Billion. That's just theaters. I'm sure the nature of Avatar lead it to be far more successful than Titanic as far as DVD/BluRay sales and merchandising.  You can't make Titanic halloween costumes and action figures, video games etc.  



cusman on 27 March 2014

If someone owns both 3DS and Wii U, then I agree, there is too much crossover. Mario starts to feel really over saturated and unnecessary.

I think the Mario games themselves are better on Wii U, but most people would have gotten the earlier/cheaper releases on 3DS and wouldn't really be feeling the need for more by time Wii U rolls around.



nitekrawler1285 on 28 March 2014
Soundwave said:

You can write this down or take a picture of it -- JK Rowling will never, ever top Harry Potter. Ever. Ever. Never. Ever. Never.

Have people ever really considered that motion gaming simply has just ran its course as a phenomenon/sales driver? Kinect isn't doing sh*t fo the XBox One either, after a while jumping around in front of your TV pretending to play tennis gets stale. 

Motion gaming + mini-games as a craze may simply be like a hundred other popular movements in gaming -- like once upon a time 2D Fighters were the no.1 genre in gaming ... after about 5-6 years, that trend ran its course. 2D fighters were so popular at one point, I remember you had to line up at the freaking 7-11 to get in at lunch time so you could play Street Fighter II or Mortal Kombat. It was insane. It doesn't mean 2D fighters stopped existing, it just means they just normalized/declined in popularity. Just like music instrument games (Guitar Hero, Rock Band, DJ Hero, etc.), 7 years ago those were the hottest games, today not so much. Mascot platformers once upon a time were everything in the game business, now you don't need one to have success anymore (Sony doesn't need Crash Bandicoot any longer). Trends change. 

I don't need a picture or note to remember people nay saying.  Your point has been more than noted even if I don't necessarily agree.

Motion controls are not a fad. The Wii wasn't even the first console to have motion controlled games and it's not the last.  PS3 and 4 are compatible with Move which is moving into VR space.  360 and One have Kinect which was targetted in a similar fashion as the Wii mote while never having the software elegance to pull it off.  It was here well before the Wii and will be here well after.  

The latest SF and MK actually compares rather well to old school SF and MK in sales so I don't know what you are talking about unless them being in 3d means they are no longer 2d fighter which would be an absurd argument. Activision released sometimes 3 or 4 guitar hero games a year. That is just a horrible publisher fatiguing the IP.  The largest maker of the most popular platform mascot games stopped making them for almost 20 years caused a pretty big hit to the genre. 3D also made those new attempts by that company and others to be an order of magnitude less accessible and thus less popular as the old ones had been.  It's been so long since someone actually tried to make a game of that sort that I can't tell you if they would be successful or not. Just because the few big publishers standing in the industry don't invest in it doesn't mean it wouldn't sell. They have been known to overshoot their audience before. 



curl-6 on 28 March 2014

Trim those quote trees, guys!



Soundwave on 28 March 2014
nitekrawler1285 said:
Soundwave said:

You can write this down or take a picture of it -- JK Rowling will never, ever top Harry Potter. Ever. Ever. Never. Ever. Never.

Have people ever really considered that motion gaming simply has just ran its course as a phenomenon/sales driver? Kinect isn't doing sh*t fo the XBox One either, after a while jumping around in front of your TV pretending to play tennis gets stale. 

Motion gaming + mini-games as a craze may simply be like a hundred other popular movements in gaming -- like once upon a time 2D Fighters were the no.1 genre in gaming ... after about 5-6 years, that trend ran its course. 2D fighters were so popular at one point, I remember you had to line up at the freaking 7-11 to get in at lunch time so you could play Street Fighter II or Mortal Kombat. It was insane. It doesn't mean 2D fighters stopped existing, it just means they just normalized/declined in popularity. Just like music instrument games (Guitar Hero, Rock Band, DJ Hero, etc.), 7 years ago those were the hottest games, today not so much. Mascot platformers once upon a time were everything in the game business, now you don't need one to have success anymore (Sony doesn't need Crash Bandicoot any longer). Trends change. 

I don't need a picture or note to remember people nay saying.  Your point has been more than noted even if I don't necessarily agree.

Motion controls are not a fad. The Wii wasn't even the first console to have motion controlled games and it's not the last.  PS3 and 4 are compatible with Move which is moving into VR space.  360 and One have Kinect which was targetted in a similar fashion as the Wii mote while never having the software elegance to pull it off.  It was here well before the Wii and will be here well after.  

The latest SF and MK actually compares rather well to old school SF and MK in sales so I don't know what you are talking about unless them being in 3d means they are no longer 2d fighter which would be an absurd argument. Activision released sometimes 3 or 4 guitar hero games a year. That is just a horrible publisher fatiguing the IP.  The largest maker of the most popular platform mascot games stopped making them for almost 20 years caused a pretty big hit to the genre. 3D also made those new attempts by that company and others to be an order of magnitude less accessible and thus less popular as the old ones had been.  It's been so long since someone actually tried to make a game of that sort that I can't tell you if they would be successful or not. Just because the few big publishers standing in the industry don't invest in it doesn't mean it wouldn't sell. They have been known to overshoot their audience before. 


Motion controls as a *system seller* may in fact be over though. Just like once upon a time Mortal Kombat almost won the console war for the Genesis, before Nintendo realized their mistake and changed allowed blood in MK2, but by the late 1990s, 2D fighters, while still having a dedicated fanbase no longer moved systems. Nobody bought a Playstation or N64 for Mortal Kombat. 

Same goes for the Final Fantasy series, which was once a hugely pivotal turning point for the Playstation brand ... today it's still popular but it isn't going to tip the scales of the console race one way or another. JRPGs had a boom period in the late 90s/early 2000s which has subsided and the genre has largely gone back to being a niche genre. 

Kinect isn't moving XBox One's and Wii Sports Club, Wii Fit, Wii Party U, etc. aren't moving Wii Us. It's a novel idea, it's just not something people will buy a new console for anymore, been there, done that (just like Guitar Hero ... after guitar riffing on every Aerosmith track for the 2000th time ... the consumer loses interest).