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Forums - Sales Discussion - Why do people still think XB1 is going to fall to WiiU levels?

sales2099 on 14 March 2014
fleischr said:
Seece said:

WiiU's first february worldwide - 138k~
WiiU's second february worldwide - 159k~

XB1's first february in the US - 258k.

It's not the case, XB1 has been doing 65k~ in the US alone weekly this past month.

Because it has the fewest number of compelling exclusives + tends to get the watered-down versions of games compared to PS4.

As Sony and Nintendo release their exclusives, X1 seems more like an overpriced PS4 or a gaming PC with fewer game options.

Um really. I love saying this and will continue to do so.

Dead Rising 3 and Forza 5 provides more genre diversity then KZ did, since it launched alongside COD and BF4. Killer Instinct is also X1's dedicated exclusive fighter where as PS4 does not have one. In terms of crap launch titles, Ryse >>>> Knack for its story, graphics, and general badassery. In 2014 so far, X1 has the timed release of PVZ Garden Warfare and offcourse we know Titanfall is going to make a bigger splash then Infamous.

So I really find it hard to understand your point of view. Unless you include indie games, but those aren't system sellers. Games is ironically the one thing where X1 is actually beating PS4.



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

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Seece on 14 March 2014
osed125 said:
Seece said:
osed125 said:

Because Europe and Japan are a thing.

Europe XB1 is doing better than WiiU, and Japan WiiU has dropped to 7k weekly. What's your point?

Even with those sales, Wii U Japan+Europe is more than XB1 in Europe alone. The 8k and 10k trends won't be all the time, when MK8 comes out, we will see an increase in both regions (for a while at least), while the XB1 will only see an increase in Europe for Titanfall.

As for U.S, is basically the same as I said above. MK8 will give a big boost for a while at least, same for the XB1 with Titanfall, but what's after Titanfall? nothing has really been announced, BenVTrigger said it himself; same with Wii U after MK8 momentum fades .

So considering the known facts, both consoles will see a big boost once MK8 and Titanfall come out, but after that both will decrease pretty heavily in sales, the XB1 will most likely sell more, but not by much. 

That's at least my prediction.

What's after Titanfall? Multiplats. Games don't have to be exclusive to sustain momentumn. Japan will be a very short lived boost, we have enough evidence that is the case with that country. DK didn't even give a boost, lets see how Japan responds to MK before calling it a huge boost there. Fact is WiiU has Japan in its favour and not Europe, it's on par with XB1. Japan is nowhere near enough to off set US for XB1.

Feb 14 for WiiU in Japan - 30k?~
Feb 14 for XB1 in US - 260k~



 

sales2099 on 14 March 2014
Seece said:
osed125 said:

Even with those sales, Wii U Japan+Europe is more than XB1 in Europe alone. The 8k and 10k trends won't be all the time, when MK8 comes out, we will see an increase in both regions (for a while at least), while the XB1 will only see an increase in Europe for Titanfall.

As for U.S, is basically the same as I said above. MK8 will give a big boost for a while at least, same for the XB1 with Titanfall, but what's after Titanfall? nothing has really been announced, BenVTrigger said it himself; same with Wii U after MK8 momentum fades .

So considering the known facts, both consoles will see a big boost once MK8 and Titanfall come out, but after that both will decrease pretty heavily in sales, the XB1 will most likely sell more, but not by much. 

That's at least my prediction.

What's after Titanfall? Multiplats. Games don't have to be exclusive to sustain momentumn. Japan will be a very short lived boost, we have enough evidence that is the case with that country. DK didn't even give a boost, lets see how Japan responds to MK before calling it a huge boost there. Fact is WiiU has Japan in its favour and not Europe, it's on par with XB1. Japan is nowhere near enough to off set US for XB1.

Feb 14 for WiiU in Japan - 30k?~
Feb 14 for XB1 in US - 260k~

Technically Kinect Sports is coming in April. Now before we all laugh, it is technically a very successful IP and will go a ways to actually make kinect useful for games. Depending on its meta offcourse. Can see it being bundled this fall too.



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

TheLastStarFighter on 14 March 2014

I think XBOne is going to do poorly because it is not offering a good value proposition vs PS4. At this stage I see Wii U in better potential shape because it at least offers a true "alternative" - cheaper, family friendly, classic Nintendo, etc. that some may pick up if the AAA 3rd party offerings are not their cup of tea.

I'm not saying this as a "fan" who is against XBox - I've loved the products since the original XBox launched, I drooled over my 1st issue of the XBox magazine detailing the games that were coming and XB360 was my primary system last gen. But XBOne is making a very poor proposition to customers. Last gen it was cheaper than PS3, had better online, had Bioware, Bungie and Mistwalker exclusivity, and Fable was in fine form... it was a no-brainer as a system to get. Especially after GTA and FF went full multi-plat. And with the launch head start more friends had 360's than PS3's.

But right now I honestly can't see any reason to pick up the system as an objective consumer. Titanfall looks real cool but I can get it on my PC or 360. I feel that if PS4 continues to gain momentum, the mass consumer in North America will start picking up that product and XBOne will flatline once the early adopters have picked up there box. There needs to be a $100 price cut and some compelling software released ASAP.

Wii U, on the other hand, I think will continue to trend upward as it gets cheaper and more software, and with decent sales in Japan it should find its niche and move units around or beyond where One settles.



fleischr on 14 March 2014
Seece said:
fleischr said:
Seece said:
fleischr said:
Seece said:

WiiU's first february worldwide - 138k~
WiiU's second february worldwide - 159k~

XB1's first february in the US - 258k.

It's not the case, XB1 has been doing 65k~ in the US alone weekly this past month.

Because it has the fewest number of compelling exclusives + tends to get the watered-down versions of games compared to PS4.

As Sony and Nintendo release their exclusives, X1 seems more like an overpriced PS4 or a gaming PC with fewer game options.

That doesn't seem to be the case right now? XB1 has sold more software at retail in the US than PS4 and WiiU, that's thanks to Dead Rising, Forza and Ryse (and soon to be Titanfall). If any systems exclusives are selling well/being talked about it's XB1's (and PS4 when they release).

It's still weak reasoning given the facts.

True -- at least until this point.

Nintendo's exclusives have an impressive legacy. Though Forza is a great game, it hasn't yet taken down Mario Kart in terms of market success and influence. Ryse is a pretty game -- but it's pretty much only that. There's far more perceived interest in a new Zelda. A ten year old+ Zelda game on a failing platform outsold Ryse. TF is an awesome game in it's own right, but X1 was never really lacking in FPS. Variety is a key catalyst in a console's success.

Pre-orders for multi-plats in NA are breaking widely in favor of PS4 over X1. If you consider that an indication of future sales, PS4 takes software lead from X1 in only a matter of months. That, combined with a (vaguely) conceivable WiiU turnaround puts X1 in 3rd place in most people's minds.

X1's success to this point isn't owed to it's exclusives, it's owed to MS's hard-won customer loyalty to the Xbox brand. But they may shift beneath them as more exclusives are released to the PS4 and WiiU platforms.

I just can't take any talk of WiiU not being 3rd talkable. If Zelda remake didn't outsell Ryse that would be shocking. Halo remake did like 2.5m+? according to MS estimates.

WiiU has had loads of exclusives so far, more than XB1, and they've not helped it sell as well as XB1.

They haven't been Nintendo's strongest IPs though and/or have been retreads of the same concepts used in 3DS and Wii games.

DK:TF is an HD DK Wii with a few new features and different levels

SM3DW is basically a sequel to the 3D Land on 3DS.

Pikmin has always been one of Nintendo's weakest IPs.

To Nintendo fans these 7 things anchor the success of a Nintendo platform

-Mario Kart

-Super Smash Bros

-A Mario game with a new, unique concept of it's own

-A new Zelda

-A new Metroid

-A new Star Fox

-Apparently F-Zero suddenly for some reason

 

And really none of those are out yet.

3rd party support be damned.

When all those finally come out and the WiiU is still is doing badly, then about 90% of Nintendo fans will give their permission to pronounce WiiU as dead. The other 10% cling on and are very active on this site.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

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AZWification on 14 March 2014

All the people that believe that are probably Kaizar alts.



                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

BMaker11 on 14 March 2014
sales2099 said:
fleischr said:
Seece said:

WiiU's first february worldwide - 138k~
WiiU's second february worldwide - 159k~

XB1's first february in the US - 258k.

It's not the case, XB1 has been doing 65k~ in the US alone weekly this past month.

Because it has the fewest number of compelling exclusives + tends to get the watered-down versions of games compared to PS4.

As Sony and Nintendo release their exclusives, X1 seems more like an overpriced PS4 or a gaming PC with fewer game options.

Um really. I love saying this and will continue to do so.

Dead Rising 3 and Forza 5 provides more genre diversity then KZ did, since it launched alongside COD and BF4. Killer Instinct is also X1's dedicated exclusive fighter where as PS4 does not have one. In terms of crap launch titles, Ryse >>>> Knack for its story, graphics, and general badassery. In 2014 so far, X1 has the timed release of PVZ Garden Warfare and offcourse we know Titanfall is going to make a bigger splash then Infamous.

So I really find it hard to understand your point of view. Unless you include indie games, but those aren't system sellers. Games is ironically the one thing where X1 is actually beating PS4.

I'll concede "genre diversity", even though that's just something you made up to bring down KZ (if you saw Dante's Inferno and GoW3 on the shelf, which would you pick up? Are you gonna downplay GoW3 because of "genre diversity" or lack thereof? A good game is a good game, point blank, period.) But seriously, about Ryse....stop adding all kinds of qualifiers to give yourself a perceived "edge". I could just as easily say Knack >>>>>>> Ryse for it's whimsical art style, fun factor, and user friendly control scheme. Doesn't make it any less of a trash game, just like Ryse. Otherwise, we all should have been praising Lair because it had story, graphics, and general badassery. And you don't know that Infamous won't make a big splash. It's tracking over the prior 2 (in preorders) and its bundle is outselling the Titanfall bundle at retailers (prior to Titanfall's release).

Factoring all that in, and then throwing indies on top of it (which you were correct on that. They aren't system sellers. They're still there, though. edit: and indie support, in general, actually is a selling point for PS4, since Sony is focusing on it), XBone is not actually beating PS4 in games.



bananaking21 on 14 March 2014

in EU it already did, in USA it never will.



Seece on 14 March 2014

TheLastStarFighter said:
I think XBOne is going to do poorly because it is not offering a good value proposition vs PS4.

Clearly many disagree with that. Kinect is bundled, it's up for people to decide where they find value. Not to mention all signs point to MS making XB1 price comparitive with PS4 this fall.

At this stage I see Wii U in better potential shape because it at least offers a true "alternative" - cheaper, family friendly, classic Nintendo, etc. that some may pick up if the AAA 3rd party offerings are not their cup of tea.

It's been out for 16 months now? It's not suddenly going to gain attention by people because it has Nintendo exclusives.

I'm not saying this as a "fan" who is against XBox - I've loved the products since the original XBox launched, I drooled over my 1st issue of the XBox magazine detailing the games that were coming and XB360 was my primary system last gen. But XBOne is making a very poor proposition to customers. Last gen it was cheaper than PS3, had better online, had Bioware, Bungie and Mistwalker exclusivity, and Fable was in fine form... it was a no-brainer as a system to get. Especially after GTA and FF went full multi-plat. And with the launch head start more friends had 360's than PS3's.

XB1 needs to get price comparitive for sure. The other stuff you stated tho? Mistwalker exclusivity did not do jot ... MS have started new studio and will make new partnerships. You seem to think 2 core consoles can't co exist. News flash they did last gen they are now, and they will in the future.

But right now I honestly can't see any reason to pick up the system as an objective consumer.

That's you, look at it from other points of view. Kinect, where your friends are, exclusives, OS and Controller all play a part. As soon as MS get price on par, the only thing PS4 will have up on XB1 is the power. And if you really still think there is no reason to pick up an XB1 because PS4 is more powerful, vs all those other far important reasons ...

Titanfall looks real cool but I can get it on my PC or 360. I feel that if PS4 continues to gain momentum, the mass consumer in North America will start picking up that product and XBOne will flatline once the early adopters have picked up there box. There needs to be a $100 price cut and some compelling software released ASAP.

Wii U, on the other hand, I think will continue to trend upward as it gets cheaper and more software, and with decent sales in Japan it should find its niche and move units around or beyond where One settles.

it's trending upwards, minimially. It's still selling incredibly poorly. Since when is Japan going to be its savour? Again, out 16 months and lagging behind previous gen consoles badly.

 





 

Augen on 14 March 2014

I never did and that was being more optimistic about the Wii U than most. X1 has NA as a stronghold which is a massive console market while Wii U has Japan which is a fraction of that size.