Kasz216 said:
kitler53 said: i was just asking myself this same question yesterday... ...if putin/russia has anything to gain from this i don't see it. seems risky with too many bad outcomes to me. |
Russia has a naval base in Crimea where they keep their fleet... and it's pretty much the only place Russia can keep their western navy as northern ports freeze over too often to be reliable.
Basically to lose Crimea is to lose all western europeon naval capabilties.
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More or less this. Some Russian presence will be in the Crimea for the foreseeable future whichever way the winds blow in Kiev, and i think, more than anything else, that's what Putin's trying to communicate here: we're going to protect our interests in the Crimea, and we are ready and willing to take action if you in Kiev become too adverse to the Russian populations.
They may honestly wish for Crimean repatriation to Russia proper, or for Crimea to become an independent or semi-independent state in Russia's sphere, a la Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, but i think for the moment it's primarily about posturing and laying a clear line in the sand to show Kiev what is "non-negotiable" even as elections come up that could change the face of Ukrainian politics.