Anything short of 15k for release week would be a small disaster in my opinion, but that's nearly double current sales. That's the thing I've been saying all along though and that is being proven more and more as time goes by; the Wii U's main problem is not software and it's not the price; the core product simply lacks appeal due to its bipolar identity and lack of market aim.
Mario Kart 8 and Smash will probably yield decent but short-lived boosts, there are no games that can repair the image of the console itself, or more specifically; the Gamepad concept.
I wonder just how much it will take for a lot of people to realize this.
NA boost: 12-15k, Europe boost: 5k, global numbers for DK launch week: about 50-60k. That's my guess anyway. I think DK will have a decent FW in NA though, but not in Europe. Should manage about 150k in NA FW, give or take. Europe is a complete toss-up, I'm gonna say 90-120k FW.
Edit; misread the OP, whole of February. Well, there's only about a week, so that, logically, leaves about the same as my expected FW boost as a boost for the whole month since it appears flat in that region. I'd say about 20% then, give or take.