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Forums - Nintendo - Pachter Predicts 3 Million Global 2014 Sales for Wii U

bonzobanana said:
It was about 3.45 million in March 2013 so will have sold about 2.5 million extra approx by this March. That's despite Zelda windwaker, Mario 3D etc being launched. I think 3 million is likely this year without a price cut but I think a price cut is likely and a big mario kart bundle for Christmas. I personally think 4-6 million this year is possible under ideal conditions. However it is also possible the wii u will be removed from shop shelves due to lack of sales and with limited software releases I can see it still possible that wii u sells less than 3 million.

We can all guess the figure but the reality is Nintendo's decisions will dictate the figure and we can't predict what they are going to do. They have made some truly atrocious decisions recently and its possible this will continue. Here in the UK the wii u has sold abysmally. The PS4 passed wii u lifetime sales in the UK in just days. Many retailers have already abandoned the wii u and its likely more will follow. In this scenerio its hard to see how the wii u can match 2013 sales figures.


The retailers that dump it will jump right back on once Nintendo's big titles are released and they see other retailers raking in a boatload of cash.  Wind Waker was never going to be a big seller.  It didn't even do that great on the gamecube + it's a remake.  Ocarina is considered to be one of the greatest games of all time and the remake on 3DS has sold 3.3 million and has been out for 2+ years now.  SM3DW did help alot though.   I know alot of people just write Decembers sales off as the holiday bump, but the Vita just proved that without some piece of compelling software that holiday bump is by no means guerenteed.  Without SM3DW Holiday Wii U sales would have been a massive disaster.



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WW already sold 1.5 million



The way I look at Smash Bros is like this

Smash Bros 64 - 5.55 million. - New IP with classic characters. Released only a year before PS2 launch, 2 years before gamecube launch.

Melee - 7.07 million - Released only 1.5 years after the original. Didn't have nearly the fanbase when released that is does now. Had a 30 percent install rate / became ehe game to own for Gamecube.

Brawl - 12.05 million - Released 6+ years after Melee. Melee had already built a solid fanbase. People were very hungry for a new version. Nintendo did a great job hyping it up with things like Smash bros Dojo. Best selling fighting game of all time.

This new one is going to do awesome. Whether the 3DS version eats into all of the sales I don't know. The "I don't know" factor is this to me. Smash Bros is one of those games that people will just buy a console for. The people buying Brawl on Wii were not the same ones buying it for Wii Sports and Wii Fit. Not even close. I actually think the new Smash Bros has a better chance to pump sales then Mario Kart. Mario Kart is much more casual, so it will help sales, just not in a big way right away. If Wii U is selling 50k per week, Mario Kart will boost it to 70k per week but for a long time. Smash Bros will boost it some crazy amount for a while.



Dr.EisDrachenJaeger said:

Donkey Kong has also pretty much never sold less than 5 million...

Well, it's about to.



VitroBahllee said:
Dr.EisDrachenJaeger said:

Donkey Kong has also pretty much never sold less than 5 million...

Well, it's about to.

On the WiiU? Nah.Donkey Konga came out on the gamecube and even that didnt burn lol



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I'm not even gonna bother with a prediction until MK8 hits. That said, comparing this years lineup to 2013, I'll be surprised if it doesn't sell a little better.



3 million is the minimum it will sell this year.



If January figures can hint how the rest of the year will be,we'll see figures 10-15 % above 2013 in 2014. That translates to 3,1-3,2 million systems sold in 2014. I actually expect sales of 5,4 million systems in 2014 (January-December), and 5,7 millon systems in fiscal year 2014/15 (April 2014-March 2015). However I made the estimate for calender year 2014 in December, when I expected Mario Kart 8 to be released in early april. The release of Mario Kart 8 in May instead might lead to a dramatic drop in sales in late March and through all of April. I'm not yet ready to revise my estimate for 2014 though.



superhippy420 said:
The way I look at Smash Bros is like this

Smash Bros 64 - 5.55 million. - New IP with classic characters. Released only a year before PS2 launch, 2 years before gamecube launch.

Melee - 7.07 million - Released only 1.5 years after the original. Didn't have nearly the fanbase when released that is does now. Had a 30 percent install rate / became ehe game to own for Gamecube.

Brawl - 12.05 million - Released 6+ years after Melee. Melee had already built a solid fanbase. People were very hungry for a new version. Nintendo did a great job hyping it up with things like Smash bros Dojo. Best selling fighting game of all time.

This new one is going to do awesome. Whether the 3DS version eats into all of the sales I don't know. The "I don't know" factor is this to me. Smash Bros is one of those games that people will just buy a console for. The people buying Brawl on Wii were not the same ones buying it for Wii Sports and Wii Fit. Not even close. I actually think the new Smash Bros has a better chance to pump sales then Mario Kart. Mario Kart is much more casual, so it will help sales, just not in a big way right away. If Wii U is selling 50k per week, Mario Kart will boost it to 70k per week but for a long time. Smash Bros will boost it some crazy amount for a while.


Wait, What!?

How the heck are you even making this assumption? I bought the Wii initially just to play Wii Sports (and Zelda TP) and I was also one of the people who bought Brawl on the Wii.



PS3, PS4, PSV, Wii U, 3DS + 3DS XL Owner.

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OT: I'm hoping the WiiU sells above 5million but I think 4.3-4.5 is more likely based on historical information and factors such as the MK8 and SSB.



PS3, PS4, PSV, Wii U, 3DS + 3DS XL Owner.

PlayStation Nation

NNID: aminryu1

I need to stop buying games...