Hmmm.. I've read that in books related to business management before. Those 5 years you've said, are more like 5 stages. Each stage doesn't necessarily last a year. It can be much longer than that.

 true, but using the game cube as basis, product life would be around 5ish years. but tehn again, the wii could pull a ps2 and go on for over 7 years. but it will all depend on the games. and again, using the game cube as basis, nintendo's 3rd party support sucks eggs. and most traditional games would be better played or developed on the ps360 (such as gta, mgs etc), which is what many game developers are doing.  

 nothing to show that it will have a long product cycle either. if anything, a very fast addaption rate could lead to a shorter life cycle. we really cant say this early in its life cycle. probably in another year or two. but for now, might as well enjoy it for those who have it. i personally am saving for a ps3. nothing personal on the wii or the 360. i just love my tekken and ff. if tekken and ff would jump ship to any of the two consoles, id have no qualms in following whre these franchises go.

 In February 2008, using the gamecube as the basis for your predictions about the Wii is a pretty stupid move to make.  It is a very different situation than it was a couple of years ago, and that is why your analysis is coming up so short.  The Wii is not analogous to the Gamecube.  The Wii is tapping an entirely different market in addition to the market that was present at the outset of this generation.

 In addition, this new market is not craving the latest shader set on the next iteration of their games, and as a result the Wii inherits some additional staying power, because these people have made this investment by the millions, and they inevitably will be looking for new things to play on it as time goes on. 

Also, very fast adoption rate --> shorter life cycle?  Who are you kidding?  That makes no sense whatsoever.     

 Not that silly fad claim again, its following a similar trend as the DS just with higher sales

The PS2 will probably ship 140 million LT ... and that number will be hard to catch IMO ... Im not shure it will , but it has a good chance for it to happen :D

no, using the gamecube as basis for predictions is a viable option.  manufacturers often use historical data or past products to project their new products sales and life span. for sony, they used the orginial playstation to forcast the ps2's life cycle and sales, which also true for the ps3. they used the ps2 as a basis for its life span, sales and addaption rate. unfortunatly, they went overboard and made the ps3 very expensive.  which is why the intial addaption rate was quite slow.  once sony droped its price, as we can now see, sales have started to pick up quite nicely for them.

the same is true for the wii, nintendo used the cube to make their intial projections in sales and life span.  this is why they are illequiped to deal with its current demand. they most likely projected a percentage increase in sales from the gamecube not expecting that it would sky rocket.

and yes, fast adoption rate sometimes do lead to shorter product life cycles. i'm in retail, i know this things. many a products sells like heck initally but sudenly just dies suddenly.  i never claimed that what i said would be what will really happen to the wii, i'm just pointing out possibilities. 

and no, many gamers still look at eye candy in chosing a console. you're lieing through your teeth if you claim that  people dont care about pretty graphics. better graphics will always be part of peoples preferences when buying a game console. if people didnt care about graphics then we'd still be stuck with 2d sprites with 16 colors.

and where did i claim that the wii is a fad?  i said "could" have a shorter life cycle. i didn say it "will" have a short life cycle.  honestly, learn how to read and grasp content before shooting out crap.

 You said very fast adoption rate could lead to a shorter life cycle, that is what we call a fad (something that is wildly popular for a short while and then flares out) in fact it is the definition of a fad, so don't try and tell me that you weren't inferring that it could be a fad.  And if you actually believe for even a moment that that will happen then you are the one who is spouting crap.

What do you think about your prediction at the time when you look back? :D