ils411 said:
kylohk said:
ils411 said:
cbongiova said:
The wii will definitely pass the sales of the PS2.
PS2 sales - Max 150 million - Probably 135-140 mil.
Wii is currently selling 1.8 mil/month = 21.6 mil/year
Historically the most popular console gains momentum in the 2nd thru 5th years.
It is likely that by the end of this year they will be selling 2.5 mil/month = 30 mil/year
By the end of year 5 this would make it 32 mil (Currently 21 mil + 1.8 for 6 month) + 30*3 = 122 mil.
By this time Nintendo will be introducing the Wii2, but with the large library of games and very low price (probably $99) they will continue to sell and ultimately pass the lifetime sales of the PS2. |
i suppose you've never heard of the "product life cycle". many manufacturers project that their products whould have a life cycle of five years. 1st year - introduction 2nd year - aceptance and increase sales 3rd year - product maturity 4th year - decline 5th year - death so its stupid to asume that sales would remain as high as you predict. the ps2 is currently in its decline and would eventualy die in the next year or two. but by then, it would probably have sold 125-130m units. and to set an example the xbox died in what? 5 years or so? same with the cube. died early. the ps2 was first and still outlived both. got to give sony credit for being able to develop a really good product. |
Hmmm.. I've read that in books related to business management before. Those 5 years you've said, are more like 5 stages. Each stage doesn't necessarily last a year. It can be much longer than that. |
true, but using the game cube as basis, product life would be around 5ish years. but tehn again, the wii could pull a ps2 and go on for over 7 years. but it will all depend on the games. and again, using the game cube as basis, nintendo's 3rd party support sucks eggs. and most traditional games would be better played or developed on the ps360 (such as gta, mgs etc), which is what many game developers are doing. |
In February 2008, using the gamecube as the basis for your predictions about the Wii is a pretty stupid move to make. It is a very different situation than it was a couple of years ago, and that is why your analysis is coming up so short. The Wii is not analogous to the Gamecube. The Wii is tapping an entirely different market in addition to the market that was present at the outset of this generation.
In addition, this new market is not craving the latest shader set on the next iteration of their games, and as a result the Wii inherits some additional staying power, because these people have made this investment by the millions, and they inevitably will be looking for new things to play on it as time goes on.
Also, very fast adoption rate --> shorter life cycle? Who are you kidding? That makes no sense whatsoever.
