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Forums - Sony Discussion - Can Vita Outsell Sega's GameGear LTD?

betacon on 17 January 2014
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
JoeTheBro said:

You're fixating on this 30% figure. That's not how it works. Break it up per market.

USA did 1.18 million in 2012 and 0.51 million last year. Dropping by the same percent predicts 0.22 million this year.

Europe did 1.45 million in 2012 and 0.92 last year. Dropping by the same percent predicts 0.58 million this year.

Japan did 0.67 million i 2012 and 1.29 million last year. Increasing by the same percent predicts 2.48 million this year.

 

Excluding other markets, that adds up to 3.28 just this year. It'd be up YOY actually.

When I was giving the 30% figure I was being generous. Historically, once the decrease begins for a console it does not tend to stop. There are annomalies but I do not beleive the PS Vita will be one of them. 

Your Japan numbers are incorrect as well my friend. From Dec 17th 2011- Dec 16th 2012 the Vita moved 1.07mill, whereas from Dec 16th 2012 - Dec 13th 2013 it sold 1.15 mill which is only a 7% increase YoY. If 2014 manages that increase rate the total would be 1.23 mill by Dec 2014 which in addition to your .22 in N.A and .58 in EU would total 2.03  (33.8% decrease from 2013). 

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41259/Japan/

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41623/Japan/


2011(481,573)- 2012(3,674,466)-2013(3,116,056) ~ Thats not down 30%



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eFKac on 17 January 2014

Even if Sony discontinues it tomorrow in the West (or retailers stop having them in stock, which I actually expect to happen in the US quite soon) Japan alone would buy at least 4 million consoles, so the answer is yes. Guaranteed.



So it is happening...PS4 preorder.

Greatness Awaits!

Aerys on 17 January 2014
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
Aerys said:

Lol, funny thread, look at my predictions, it will answer to your insanity.

There will be no drop compared to 2013, it's even the opposite if you think a bit, Vita will obviously sell much better this  year in Japan, and there is absolutely no reason to think vita will drop in US or europe, again it's the opposite in europe thanks to the PS4(  and we all know why Vita sold more in 2012, helped by COD + launch year numbers, so the drop in 2013 is logic but there is absolutely no reason to think it will drop in 2014, but much more reason to think the opposite )


My insanity? Look at your predictions? Right! Vita will sell the exact same amount as the Wii U (which has MK8 and Smash Bros releasing). Now it's not to say that your Wii U numbers are bad, I'm saying your Vita numbers are completely out too lunch, and that is putting it in a nice way. I'd say it tops 2.3 million WW for the year.  Sorry to say but the PS4 will not save it! 


You say it'll drop based on nothing relevant when everything shows it will do better this year. So yes your predictions are totaly insane.

Wii U will have some big  games yes, but much less games, Vita sells better every week without games and  more when a game is released even if  it's a multiplatform game, Wii U sells better only with big exclusives games and at christmas but it's just temporary before it goes back to regular low sales because of the lack of regular release

Vita is getting more and more support in Japan, it will sell good there (+ PS4 that wont save Vita in europe but help a lot), it will be enough to compete with few Wii U momentum

 

So yeah, it's much less insane to say they will sell the same amount(like this year) than to say Vita  will struggle to reach 11M



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

TurboElder on 17 January 2014

Vita will be dead in the next 6 months.



Nirvana_Nut85 on 17 January 2014
Aerys said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
Aerys said:

Lol, funny thread, look at my predictions, it will answer to your insanity.

There will be no drop compared to 2013, it's even the opposite if you think a bit, Vita will obviously sell much better this  year in Japan, and there is absolutely no reason to think vita will drop in US or europe, again it's the opposite in europe thanks to the PS4(  and we all know why Vita sold more in 2012, helped by COD + launch year numbers, so the drop in 2013 is logic but there is absolutely no reason to think it will drop in 2014, but much more reason to think the opposite )


My insanity? Look at your predictions? Right! Vita will sell the exact same amount as the Wii U (which has MK8 and Smash Bros releasing). Now it's not to say that your Wii U numbers are bad, I'm saying your Vita numbers are completely out too lunch, and that is putting it in a nice way. I'd say it tops 2.3 million WW for the year.  Sorry to say but the PS4 will not save it! 


You say it'll drop based on nothing relevant when everything shows it will do better this year. So yes your predictions are totaly insane.

Wii U will have some big  games yes, but much less games, Vita sells better every week without games and  more when a game is released even if  it's a multiplatform game, Wii U sells better only with big exclusives games and at christmas but it's just temporary before it goes back to regular low sales because of the lack of regular release

Vita is getting more and more support in Japan, it will sell good there (+ PS4 that wont save Vita in europe but help a lot), it will be enough to compete with few Wii U momentum

 

So yeah, it's much less insane to say they will sell the same amount(like this year) than to say Vita  will struggle to reach 11M

Less games than Vita? I think not. Also those big exclusive games will be in constant flow for 2014. Vita N.A sales will be non existant this year and will be the same in EU. By months end Vita will be back to normal in Japan.

To even think that Vita will compete against Wii U is like saying Wii U will outsell the PS4 this year. It's nothing but an absurd pipe dream. We'll both win the lottery before either of those two things happen.



" Rebellion Against Tyrants Is Obedience To God"

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JoeTheBro on 17 January 2014
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
JoeTheBro said:

You're fixating on this 30% figure. That's not how it works. Break it up per market.

USA did 1.18 million in 2012 and 0.51 million last year. Dropping by the same percent predicts 0.22 million this year.

Europe did 1.45 million in 2012 and 0.92 last year. Dropping by the same percent predicts 0.58 million this year.

Japan did 0.67 million i 2012 and 1.29 million last year. Increasing by the same percent predicts 2.48 million this year.

 

Excluding other markets, that adds up to 3.28 just this year. It'd be up YOY actually.

When I was giving the 30% figure I was being generous. Historically, once the decrease begins for a console it does not tend to stop. There are annomalies but I do not beleive the PS Vita will be one of them. 

Your Japan numbers are incorrect as well my friend. From Dec 17th 2011- Dec 16th 2012 the Vita moved 1.07mill, whereas from Dec 16th 2012 - Dec 13th 2013 it sold 1.15 mill which is only a 7% increase YoY. If 2014 manages that increase rate the total would be 1.23 mill by Dec 2014 which in addition to your .22 in N.A and .58 in EU would total 2.03  (33.8% decrease from 2013). 

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41259/Japan/

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41623/Japan/

You're not being generous, you're being wrong. Vita is down YOY in the west but up in Japan. It's ridiculous that you continue to ignore this.

Maybe it's because you have the wrong numbers? This site has lots of cool features. No need to bother with the weekly sales and LTD numbers. Just go here: http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php?reg=Japan&ending=Yearly My numbers are correct, as far as VGCHARTZ goes.

With accurate numbers now, can you see why everyone is disagreeing with you?



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BlowoverKing on 17 January 2014

I can see it passing the 10 million mark this year so yeah it'll pass the GameGear. I think the Vita can squeeze out 15-18 million LTD with a break down of:

  • NA-    3-3.5 Million
  • EU-    5-6 Million
  • JP-     7-8.5 Million
BTW that NA figure is if Sony doesn't discontinue it and releases the 2000 model as well as Vita TV.

PSN: extremeM

PlayStation Vita Japanese Software Sales (Media Create Physical/ Famitsu Digital)

Nirvana_Nut85 on 17 January 2014
betacon said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
JoeTheBro said:

You're fixating on this 30% figure. That's not how it works. Break it up per market.

USA did 1.18 million in 2012 and 0.51 million last year. Dropping by the same percent predicts 0.22 million this year.

Europe did 1.45 million in 2012 and 0.92 last year. Dropping by the same percent predicts 0.58 million this year.

Japan did 0.67 million i 2012 and 1.29 million last year. Increasing by the same percent predicts 2.48 million this year.

 

Excluding other markets, that adds up to 3.28 just this year. It'd be up YOY actually.

When I was giving the 30% figure I was being generous. Historically, once the decrease begins for a console it does not tend to stop. There are annomalies but I do not beleive the PS Vita will be one of them. 

Your Japan numbers are incorrect as well my friend. From Dec 17th 2011- Dec 16th 2012 the Vita moved 1.07mill, whereas from Dec 16th 2012 - Dec 13th 2013 it sold 1.15 mill which is only a 7% increase YoY. If 2014 manages that increase rate the total would be 1.23 mill by Dec 2014 which in addition to your .22 in N.A and .58 in EU would total 2.03  (33.8% decrease from 2013). 

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41259/Japan/

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41623/Japan/


2011(481,573)- 2012(3,674,466)-2013(3,116,056) ~ Thats not down 30%

First full year on the market! Considering E.U & U.S launched in Feb (which I still only went until January)

Hell, even if we go from Dec 17th 2011- Dec 15 2012 (again the other two markets didn't launch until 2 months later)3.82 mill against Dec 15-2012 - Dec 14 2013 2.94 mill, thats still a 23% decrease.



" Rebellion Against Tyrants Is Obedience To God"

MentalAlliance on 17 January 2014

I think it's a safe bet to say it will. I mean, yeah it's in trouble, but I'm not sure it's at Game Gear's level of trouble.



JoeTheBro on 17 January 2014
Nirvana_Nut85 said:

To even think that Vita will compete against Wii U is like saying Wii U will outsell the PS4 this year. It's nothing but an absurd pipe dream. We'll both win the lottery before either of those two things happen.


Oh.

That explains this thread almost perfectly.



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