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Forums - Gaming Discussion - When will the ps4 start outselling the 3ds

Mummelmann on 15 January 2014

Last half of 2015 probably, or first half of 2016, depends on the 3DS' decline and the PS4's peak sales levels. Even the PS3 managed to sell about 14 million in its best year, something the 3DS is having huge problems beating despite having massive amounts of software, historical price cut and several hardware revisions, not to mention no competition to speak of, I don't understand why anyone would see this as impossible by any measure; the 3DS is likely headed down and the PS4 will probably peak in 2015 or 2016, there will be a crossing point where the PS4 should manage to beat the 3DS consistently through the year.

For anyone saying "never"; the 3DS is not the DS and it's not doing as amazingly as you think, the DS had three consecutive years of near 30 million sales, the 3DS is struggling to reach half that. On the same note; the PS4 is not the PS2 either, it will never sell 20 million in one year, I expect it to have a sales pattern similar to the PS3 but with a flatter sales curve and with higher sales overall but a shorter life cycle.



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DerNebel on 15 January 2014

The people in this thread completely dismissing even the possibility of the PS4 outselling the 3DS on a pretty much constant basis are ridiculous.

"Bu-bu-but the 3DS was the best selling console last year and the year before." Great and what did it sell? In 2013 about 14.7 million units according to this website (and this is with Pokemon, MH4 and a $129 model among other things). What did the PS3 do in 2011? Oh, about 14.7 million units, looks like that number ain't that impossible to reach after all.

So either you people think the 3DS is going to have serious YOY hardware growth in the coming years after the incredible 2% YOY growth it had in 2013 (arguably its best year software wise) or you think the PS4 is going to have the same sales curve as the PS3 and take about 5 years to get to that height. Both scenarios are not very likely.



BreedinBull on 15 January 2014

As soon as Nintendo kills the 3ds for the 3ts. The world isn't ready for a three screen system yet.



Thanks jlmurph!

colafitte on 15 January 2014

PS4 will definitively outsell 3DS this year, by various millions, IMO. PS4 will sell, only this year, between 15-20 million, whoever doesn't think this is absolutely wrong. PS4 is already in a position of popularity that PS3 never was, and in the best year of PS3, it sold almost 15 million in 2011. PS4 just need time to start shipping according to demand, and this will be accomplished just after Japan release. When this happens PS4 will outsell 3DS weekly easily...

If 3DS didn't sell 20m or more this year (with the best exclusives for the year for any platform, IMO), i'm not seeing doing it ever. 3DS is not DS....



BeElite on 15 January 2014

This year, PS4 is sold out till feb/april where I'm at. They sale everything they ship, 3ds holiday sales were great but they will drop while PS4 goes the second it hit the store.

Might even do it this month.



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xJbownagex on 15 January 2014

After it launches in Japan (will beat it for a few weeks) and maybe holiday 2014.



kirby007 on 15 January 2014
Mummelmann said:

Last half of 2015 probably, or first half of 2016, depends on the 3DS' decline and the PS4's peak sales levels. Even the PS3 managed to sell about 14 million in its best year, something the 3DS is having huge problems beating despite having massive amounts of software, historical price cut and several hardware revisions, not to mention no competition to speak of, I don't understand why anyone would see this as impossible by any measure; the 3DS is likely headed down and the PS4 will probably peak in 2015 or 2016, there will be a crossing point where the PS4 should manage to beat the 3DS consistently through the year.

For anyone saying "never"; the 3DS is not the DS and it's not doing as amazingly as you think, the DS had three consecutive years of near 30 million sales, the 3DS is struggling to reach half that. On the same note; the PS4 is not the PS2 either, it will never sell 20 million in one year, I expect it to have a sales pattern similar to the PS3 but with a flatter sales curve and with higher sales overall but a shorter life cycle.


flatter at thestart or the tail of its lifecycle?



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

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Mummelmann on 15 January 2014
kirby007 said:
Mummelmann said:

Last half of 2015 probably, or first half of 2016, depends on the 3DS' decline and the PS4's peak sales levels. Even the PS3 managed to sell about 14 million in its best year, something the 3DS is having huge problems beating despite having massive amounts of software, historical price cut and several hardware revisions, not to mention no competition to speak of, I don't understand why anyone would see this as impossible by any measure; the 3DS is likely headed down and the PS4 will probably peak in 2015 or 2016, there will be a crossing point where the PS4 should manage to beat the 3DS consistently through the year.

For anyone saying "never"; the 3DS is not the DS and it's not doing as amazingly as you think, the DS had three consecutive years of near 30 million sales, the 3DS is struggling to reach half that. On the same note; the PS4 is not the PS2 either, it will never sell 20 million in one year, I expect it to have a sales pattern similar to the PS3 but with a flatter sales curve and with higher sales overall but a shorter life cycle.


flatter at thestart or the tail of its lifecycle?


Throughout. If it sells 80 million, it will more likely be, say, six years of 13.3 million average rather than eight years of 10 million average. End result would be largely the same, a higher average over a shorter span of time is neither a boon nor a curse in sales totals, it should affect software sales rather significantly though and leaves less time and a more cramped budget plan for the 9th gen. There are those who would claim; "Yeah, well look at the million seller on the PS4 already! It will move tons of software and certainly more than the PS3!", to which I would repeat what I said in another thread a while back; "Choosing a favorite game among a launch line-up is kind of like announcing employee of the month in a gulag."



kirby007 on 15 January 2014
Mummelmann said:
kirby007 said:
Mummelmann said:

Last half of 2015 probably, or first half of 2016, depends on the 3DS' decline and the PS4's peak sales levels. Even the PS3 managed to sell about 14 million in its best year, something the 3DS is having huge problems beating despite having massive amounts of software, historical price cut and several hardware revisions, not to mention no competition to speak of, I don't understand why anyone would see this as impossible by any measure; the 3DS is likely headed down and the PS4 will probably peak in 2015 or 2016, there will be a crossing point where the PS4 should manage to beat the 3DS consistently through the year.

For anyone saying "never"; the 3DS is not the DS and it's not doing as amazingly as you think, the DS had three consecutive years of near 30 million sales, the 3DS is struggling to reach half that. On the same note; the PS4 is not the PS2 either, it will never sell 20 million in one year, I expect it to have a sales pattern similar to the PS3 but with a flatter sales curve and with higher sales overall but a shorter life cycle.


flatter at thestart or the tail of its lifecycle?


Throughout. If it sells 80 million, it will more likely be, say, six years of 13.3 million average rather than eight years of 10 million average. End result would be largely the same, a higher average over a shorter span of time is neither a boon nor a curse in sales totals, it should affect software sales rather significantly though and leaves less time and a more cramped budget plan for the 9th gen. There are those who would claim; "Yeah, well look at the million seller on the PS4 already! It will move tons of software and certainly more than the PS3!", to which I would repeat what I said in another thread a while back; "Choosing a favorite game among a launch line-up is kind of like announcing employee of the month in a gulag."

i suspect that the ps4 will have a bigger 2nd year (2014) then the ps3 had (2007).

the sales curve isn't flatter tho, yearly sales are flatter



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Mummelmann on 15 January 2014
kirby007 said:
Mummelmann said:
kirby007 said:
Mummelmann said:

Last half of 2015 probably, or first half of 2016, depends on the 3DS' decline and the PS4's peak sales levels. Even the PS3 managed to sell about 14 million in its best year, something the 3DS is having huge problems beating despite having massive amounts of software, historical price cut and several hardware revisions, not to mention no competition to speak of, I don't understand why anyone would see this as impossible by any measure; the 3DS is likely headed down and the PS4 will probably peak in 2015 or 2016, there will be a crossing point where the PS4 should manage to beat the 3DS consistently through the year.

For anyone saying "never"; the 3DS is not the DS and it's not doing as amazingly as you think, the DS had three consecutive years of near 30 million sales, the 3DS is struggling to reach half that. On the same note; the PS4 is not the PS2 either, it will never sell 20 million in one year, I expect it to have a sales pattern similar to the PS3 but with a flatter sales curve and with higher sales overall but a shorter life cycle.


flatter at thestart or the tail of its lifecycle?


Throughout. If it sells 80 million, it will more likely be, say, six years of 13.3 million average rather than eight years of 10 million average. End result would be largely the same, a higher average over a shorter span of time is neither a boon nor a curse in sales totals, it should affect software sales rather significantly though and leaves less time and a more cramped budget plan for the 9th gen. There are those who would claim; "Yeah, well look at the million seller on the PS4 already! It will move tons of software and certainly more than the PS3!", to which I would repeat what I said in another thread a while back; "Choosing a favorite game among a launch line-up is kind of like announcing employee of the month in a gulag."

i suspect that the ps4 will have a bigger 2nd year (2014) then the ps3 had (2007).

the sales curve isn't flatter tho, yearly sales are flatter

If yearly sales are flatter, the overall sales curve for the generation will be flatter, which is my view on the matter. I don't think we'll see spikes the same size as the PS3/360 when big titles launch, but rather a higher, sustained average level of weekly sales. The good start would already indicate as much, and yes; I also believe that the PS4 will have a higher first full calendar year than the PS3, the PS3 sold about 7.9 million in 2007 (as I recall), the PS4 should be able to beat that with reasonable ease.

Flatter sales curve with higher yearly average numbers over a shorter time = roughly equal lifetime sales.