kirby007 said:
Mummelmann said:
kirby007 said:
Mummelmann said:
Last half of 2015 probably, or first half of 2016, depends on the 3DS' decline and the PS4's peak sales levels. Even the PS3 managed to sell about 14 million in its best year, something the 3DS is having huge problems beating despite having massive amounts of software, historical price cut and several hardware revisions, not to mention no competition to speak of, I don't understand why anyone would see this as impossible by any measure; the 3DS is likely headed down and the PS4 will probably peak in 2015 or 2016, there will be a crossing point where the PS4 should manage to beat the 3DS consistently through the year.
For anyone saying "never"; the 3DS is not the DS and it's not doing as amazingly as you think, the DS had three consecutive years of near 30 million sales, the 3DS is struggling to reach half that. On the same note; the PS4 is not the PS2 either, it will never sell 20 million in one year, I expect it to have a sales pattern similar to the PS3 but with a flatter sales curve and with higher sales overall but a shorter life cycle.
|
flatter at thestart or the tail of its lifecycle?
|
Throughout. If it sells 80 million, it will more likely be, say, six years of 13.3 million average rather than eight years of 10 million average. End result would be largely the same, a higher average over a shorter span of time is neither a boon nor a curse in sales totals, it should affect software sales rather significantly though and leaves less time and a more cramped budget plan for the 9th gen. There are those who would claim; "Yeah, well look at the million seller on the PS4 already! It will move tons of software and certainly more than the PS3!", to which I would repeat what I said in another thread a while back; "Choosing a favorite game among a launch line-up is kind of like announcing employee of the month in a gulag."
|
i suspect that the ps4 will have a bigger 2nd year (2014) then the ps3 had (2007).
the sales curve isn't flatter tho, yearly sales are flatter
|
If yearly sales are flatter, the overall sales curve for the generation will be flatter, which is my view on the matter. I don't think we'll see spikes the same size as the PS3/360 when big titles launch, but rather a higher, sustained average level of weekly sales. The good start would already indicate as much, and yes; I also believe that the PS4 will have a higher first full calendar year than the PS3, the PS3 sold about 7.9 million in 2007 (as I recall), the PS4 should be able to beat that with reasonable ease.
Flatter sales curve with higher yearly average numbers over a shorter time = roughly equal lifetime sales.
