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Forums - Sales - Can 3DS outsell PSP (lifetime)?

 

Which handheld will end up with more sales (lifetime)?

PSP 69 10.27%
 
3DS 522 77.68%
 
About even 81 12.05%
 
Total:672
Somini on 11 January 2014
Anfebious said:
I am pretty sure the 3DS is going to outsell the PSP. You can quote me on that in a couple of years if you want but I am 100% sure it will outsell it.


Don't be so sure. You were also sure WiiU would sell 10 million before 2014 and look how that turned out.



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Seece on 11 January 2014
sidmeiernintifan said:
I think people are not talking into account Nintendo's ability to cut the price.
Nintendo was selling 2DS for 100 dollars this year IIRC, who knows if they won't be able to sell it much cheaper in 2 years. I guess they will.

And people are also forgetting the long life of the Gameboy, it lasted pretty much the whole 90s. Its biggest sellers were Tetris in 1989-1990 and Pokemon in 1998-1999.

I think it will sell PSP, GBA numbers, and could sell Game Boy numbers if a cheaper than USD100 2DS exists in 2016. And also if Nintendo decides to focus on it instead of the Wii U.

Surely $99 is the floor? Retailers and Nintendo would barely make anything out of something cheaper. Not to mention that's already incredibly low priced.



 

Anfebious on 11 January 2014
Somini said:
Anfebious said:
I am pretty sure the 3DS is going to outsell the PSP. You can quote me on that in a couple of years if you want but I am 100% sure it will outsell it.


Don't be so sure. You were also sure WiiU would sell 10 million before 2014 and look how that turned out.

Yep I got that one super wrong! But I was too optimistic at that time, almost delusional. Now it's pretty clear the Wii U isn't going nowhere.

The 3DS is a different story, the system is doing great numbers and it doesn't show any signs of dying anytime soon. There is a possibility we will get another Pokemon game in a couple of years too! And other games yet to be announced.

It depends in the life cycle of the system but I think the 3DS will be able to do it. As I said you can quote me if I'm wrong in a couple of years .



"I've Underestimated the Horse Power from Mario Kart 8, I'll Never Doubt the WiiU's Engine Again"

sidmeiernintifan on 11 January 2014

If Wall Marts USD100 2DS was the floor in 2013, the floor in 2016 will be probably considerably lower since it will be cheaper to manufacture.

As long as they make a profit they shouldn't worry about making the console cheaper. PS3 is much much cheaper nowadays than in its first year.

 

I think the console has 2 more years of selling over 10 millions with a normal price, and 2 more year of selling whatever it sells with a large price cut.



DonFerrari on 11 January 2014
pezus said:
EricFabian said:
why every Nintendo device has to be outsold by a Sony device? Some comments here are interesting....

PS2>DS
PS1>Wii
PSP>3DS
PSV>WiiU
PS3>N64, Gamecube, etc.

It's just the circle of life

I like your choice of battles.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari on 11 January 2014

The wishfull thinking is strong in one side of the force.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

benji232 on 11 January 2014
pezus said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:

It's overtracked.

NPD shows around 2.2m, Mediacreate shows around 1.7m, Europe will be on par with US so 2.2m, the rest of the world accounts for 10% of those sales combined. Total comes to 6.7m.

You're assuming Europe will be equal to the US when the past has always proven otherwise. DS sold a lot more in Europe then they did in the US. Also, when I calculate, we only have it overtracked by 200k in the US which still puts it at 7.4m. May I ask you again, where are you taking those figures except a bunch of assumptions for Europe and "others" and the rest of America. 

Anyways, we'll know the figures in 18 days. I am not saying that I'm stating facts, I'm merely stating my opinion here. If we really do have it overtracked by 1m like you're suggesting, then your 7-8m figure for Q4 might be right. 

What. DS sold more in the US than in Europe. 52.7m vs. 51.7m. Basically a similar amount. The same is true for 3DS (basically the same amount).

This http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=170598&page= shows Europe is almost 2m above the US. And these are official shipment figures. I know, it's basically equal, but it's still an assumption and not a fact.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

benji232 on 11 January 2014
Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:

October+November+December global data = more then 7.6m units sold. Shipments are usually higher then sell-through data. 1.4M units sitting on storeshelves is far from impossible. 

It's overtracked.

NPD shows around 2.2m, Mediacreate shows around 1.7m, Europe will be on par with US so 2.2m, the rest of the world accounts for 10% of those sales combined. Total comes to 6.7m.

You're assuming Europe will be equal to the US when the past has always proven otherwise. DS sold a lot more in Europe then they did in the US. Also, when I calculate, we only have it overtracked by 200k in the US which still puts it at 7.4m. May I ask you again, where are you taking those figures except a bunch of assumptions for Europe and "others" and the rest of America. 

Anyways, we'll know the figures in 18 days. I am not saying that I'm stating facts, I'm merely stating my opinion here. If we really do have it overtracked by 1m like you're suggesting, then your 7-8m figure for Q4 might be right. 

3DS is not DS. Take a look at this - http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/131030e.pdf

3DS LTD as of September 30th

Americas - 11.43m
Others - 10.22m

Others = Europe and everywhere else.
Americas = US and NA/SA.

You could argue which is bigger, the fact is they're neck and neck and US is probably a better market for 3DS than Europe. Case in point the previous 6 months Americas outshipped Others by 240k. (1.17m to 0.97m).

Also using US, Europe and Japan you can guage (and have been able to for a long time) that every other market makes up 10% of 3DS sales.

So I reiterate.

US is at 2.2m (thanks to NPD we know this), Europe is probably the same, Japan is 1.7m. Plus the 10% elsewhere. The sales are around 6.7m it could fluctuate either way a couple hundred k.

Also like I just said, bare in mind there was stock on shelves end of September. Probably 1m+, of which are part of that 6.7m. So saying you predict 9m shipped is saying you think there is 3.3m on shelves/warehouses.

9m - 6.7m =/= 3.3m lol. But you even said: "it could fluctuate either way a couple hundred k." meaning that let's say the couple hundred K is above 6.7m and brings it to 7m, were still looking at a 8-8.5m figure. 

But anyways, their financial results will be revealed in a matter of days, it's useless to argue over estimates when we will know official numbers in merely 18days.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

Seece on 11 January 2014
benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:
Seece said:
benji232 said:

October+November+December global data = more then 7.6m units sold. Shipments are usually higher then sell-through data. 1.4M units sitting on storeshelves is far from impossible. 

It's overtracked.

NPD shows around 2.2m, Mediacreate shows around 1.7m, Europe will be on par with US so 2.2m, the rest of the world accounts for 10% of those sales combined. Total comes to 6.7m.

You're assuming Europe will be equal to the US when the past has always proven otherwise. DS sold a lot more in Europe then they did in the US. Also, when I calculate, we only have it overtracked by 200k in the US which still puts it at 7.4m. May I ask you again, where are you taking those figures except a bunch of assumptions for Europe and "others" and the rest of America. 

Anyways, we'll know the figures in 18 days. I am not saying that I'm stating facts, I'm merely stating my opinion here. If we really do have it overtracked by 1m like you're suggesting, then your 7-8m figure for Q4 might be right. 

3DS is not DS. Take a look at this - http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/131030e.pdf

3DS LTD as of September 30th

Americas - 11.43m
Others - 10.22m

Others = Europe and everywhere else.
Americas = US and NA/SA.

You could argue which is bigger, the fact is they're neck and neck and US is probably a better market for 3DS than Europe. Case in point the previous 6 months Americas outshipped Others by 240k. (1.17m to 0.97m).

Also using US, Europe and Japan you can guage (and have been able to for a long time) that every other market makes up 10% of 3DS sales.

So I reiterate.

US is at 2.2m (thanks to NPD we know this), Europe is probably the same, Japan is 1.7m. Plus the 10% elsewhere. The sales are around 6.7m it could fluctuate either way a couple hundred k.

Also like I just said, bare in mind there was stock on shelves end of September. Probably 1m+, of which are part of that 6.7m. So saying you predict 9m shipped is saying you think there is 3.3m on shelves/warehouses.

9m - 6.7m =/= 3.3m lol. But you even said: "it could fluctuate either way a couple hundred k." meaning that let's say the couple hundred K is above 6.7m and brings it to 7m, were still looking at a 8-8.5m figure. 

But anyways, their financial results will be revealed in a matter of days, it's useless to argue over estimates when we will know official numbers in merely 18days.

Did you read what I said? There was already 1m on shelves going into the holiday, so Nintendo essentially sold 5.7m~ of the stock they shipped in Q4. Thus if you think they shipped 9m, they have 3.3m on shelves/warehouses. Get it now?

I'm not sure why they're going to ship an extra 1.5m 3DS's, that's a lot.



 

zorg1000 on 11 January 2014

I think 3DS can beat it. Here is the totals that vgchartz has them at for each region.

3DS
North America-12.98m
Europe-12.02m
Japan-14.72m
Others-2.59m
Total-42.31m

PSP
North America-21.38m
Europe-24.14m
Japan-19.92m
Others-15.26m
Total-80.70m

3DS will likely pass PSP in Japan sometime in 2015. I believe it will pass PSP in America as well in the long term. Maybe not in Europe and def not in Others. Overall I imagine 3DS passing it by a few million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.