By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Will Probably Outsell Wii U by Spring Globally - Michael Pachter

I think the majority of doubt in this thread comes from younger Nintendo fans who think that just because the Wii was so popular last gen, than surely the Wii U will eventually catch fire soon. Of course, one only has to go back a gen prior to see Nintendo getting completely crushed by the competition. And the gen prior to that, it happened, too. The N64 and the Gamecube had ALL the games people are saying will help the Wii U ignite in sales, but it didn't help them.

Nor will they help the Wii U. Sure, it will give it a nice boost for a week or two, but that's it. It doesn't help that the Wii U is getting poor 3rd party support and Nintendo keeps delaying their games, leading to droughts for months. I mean people were saying 3D Mario+holiday sales = domination, but that didn't happen. Only thing noticeable was a good boost in Japan, which will still end in a few weeks. You see, you need more than games to appeal to gamers. The console itself must interest people, as well. Unfortunately, not many are interested in the Wii U.



Around the Network
Max King of the Wild said:
DietSoap said:

I want to be clear again, it's an official price drop to $200 in 2014 and an overall profit for 2014, as well as every indivual quarter in 2015 (meaning if even the first quarter is an overall net loss, you win), but the conditions sound good.

I will win without worrying about forcasts considering Nintendo will never drop the price by $100 this year

I'm sorry for ever doubting your confidence lol



thismeintiel said:
I think the majority of doubt in this thread comes from younger Nintendo fans who think that just because the Wii was so popular last gen, than surely the Wii U will eventually catch fire soon. Of course, one only has to go back a gen prior to see Nintendo getting completely crushed by the competition. And the gen prior to that, it happened, too. The N64 and the Gamecube had ALL the games people are saying will help the Wii U ignite in sales, but it didn't help them.

Nor will they help the Wii U. Sure, it will give it a nice boost for a week or two, but that's it. It doesn't help that the Wii U is getting poor 3rd party support and Nintendo keeps delaying their games, leading to droughts for months. I mean people were saying 3D Mario+holiday sales = domination, but that didn't happen. Only thing noticeable was a good boost in Japan, which will still end in a few weeks. You see, you need more than games to appeal to gamers. The console itself must interest people, as well. Unfortunately, not many are interested in the Wii U.

I agree. What do you think about dietsoap saying Nintendo will dro wii u's price to $200



I'm quite certain PS4 will overtake WiiU at some point, however I do believe Pachter is overly optimistic. I actually believe we will se a dramatic drop in PS4 sales in the US and Europe around February/March and onward well into Q3 2014, as we saw with WiiU in 2013. I base this belief on the lack of high profile software for PS4 in the spring and summer.

And unfortunately the Japanese release won't be enough to pick up that drop. Likewise we will see a dramatic drop in sales in Japan in early summer and that drop will also last well into Q3 2014.

WiiU will also see a drop in sales, but that drop will be more modest as Super Mario 3D World will have legs long enough to carry hardware sales in Q1 and parts of Q2.

I predict weekly worldwide WiiU sales of aprox. 75 000-100 000 systems all spring and summer, based on the assumption that Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze and Mario Kart 8 will be released sometime in Q1/Q2. I'm quite certain such sales will be enough for WiiU to keep its lead at least until September/October 2014.

Key to all of this is of course if Mario Kart 8 will be released sometime in Q2 (the earlier the better). Otherwise WiiU will have yet another disastrous first half year, and by then it's highly doubtful they can pick up momentum again. In other words; this spring will make or break WiiU.



Hamister said:
I'm quite certain PS4 will overtake WiiU at some point, however I do believe Pachter is overly optimistic. I actually believe we will se a dramatic drop in PS4 sales in the US and Europe around February/March and onward well into Q3 2014, as we saw with WiiU in 2013. I base this belief on the lack of high profile software for PS4 in the spring and summer.

And unfortunately the Japanese release won't be enough to pick up that drop. Likewise we will see a dramatic drop in sales in Japan in early summer and that drop will also last well into Q3 2014.

WiiU will also see a drop in sales, but that drop will be more modest as Super Mario 3D World will have legs long enough to carry hardware sales in Q1 and parts of Q2.

I predict weekly worldwide WiiU sales of aprox. 75 000-100 000 systems all spring and summer, based on the assumption that Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze and Mario Kart 8 will be released sometime in Q1/Q2. I'm quite certain such sales will be enough for WiiU to keep its lead at least until September/October 2014.

Key to all of this is of course if Mario Kart 8 will be released sometime in Q2 (the earlier the better). Otherwise WiiU will have yet another disastrous first half year, and by then it's highly doubtful they can pick up momentum again. In other words; this spring will make or break WiiU.


Japan...will help Sony get over the five million mark before second quarter even starts. Theres also a Gamestop backup on demand WW until February or March. Sony will definitely pass Nintendo by the end of the first quarter.



Around the Network
leo-j said:
eyeofcore said:
leo-j said:
You guys realize pachter predicted that the WII and nintendo would look like the winners of last gen.. for the majority of the gen, and then they would fall off because of hardware spec/end of fad and lower priced competitors with better games and better visuals.. like the ps3 would rebound he said..


Pachter said these things when they were obvious, literally in your face.

 

pacther also predicted a WII HD upgrade as the wii started to lose steam.. what's the WII u?

I just have to laugh at this. Was Nintendo going to release a new console that can only perform 480p after the Wii? If a new console constitutes as an "hd upgrade" then certainly Patcher was saying "the sky is blue." 



Zero999 said:
Rafux said:
DietSoap said:


Well... What does the PS4 or One even have for 2014 that can match two of the biggest hitters in the entire industry, Smash and Mario Kart (you know, the game that sold over 30 million last gen)? Infamous 3million LTD? Titanfall that's also on 360 and PC? Some crossgen multiplats also strewn across both next gen platforms and PC, with some even on Wii U?

Seriously, I'm just not seeing anything that can even come close to pushing units like Smash and Mario Kart. Couple that with my expectation that a new mainline Zelda and a new Metroid will be shown off this E3 as well as a drop to $200 for the holidays (not even counting the black friday deals), and yeah... I just don't see how either the PS4 or One can hope to match it.

The Wii U is going to absolutely explode in sales this year, I still can't believe people foolishly underestimate Nintendo time and time again only for them to dominate each and every time.

Mario Kart and Smash Bros will save the Wii U like they did with the Gamecube... oh wait a minute

Don't understimate Titanfall its going to blow up also Destiny is releasing his long awaited new game and Watchdogs looks like a winner.

yeah, mario kart and smash bros popularity was so much higher back then, OH WAIT.

Mario Kart has been popular since the 90s and Smash Brothers Melee sold 7 million copies on a 21 million user base it was popular already.



Rafux said:
Zero999 said:
Rafux said:
DietSoap said:


Well... What does the PS4 or One even have for 2014 that can match two of the biggest hitters in the entire industry, Smash and Mario Kart (you know, the game that sold over 30 million last gen)? Infamous 3million LTD? Titanfall that's also on 360 and PC? Some crossgen multiplats also strewn across both next gen platforms and PC, with some even on Wii U?

Seriously, I'm just not seeing anything that can even come close to pushing units like Smash and Mario Kart. Couple that with my expectation that a new mainline Zelda and a new Metroid will be shown off this E3 as well as a drop to $200 for the holidays (not even counting the black friday deals), and yeah... I just don't see how either the PS4 or One can hope to match it.

The Wii U is going to absolutely explode in sales this year, I still can't believe people foolishly underestimate Nintendo time and time again only for them to dominate each and every time.

Mario Kart and Smash Bros will save the Wii U like they did with the Gamecube... oh wait a minute

Don't understimate Titanfall its going to blow up also Destiny is releasing his long awaited new game and Watchdogs looks like a winner.

yeah, mario kart and smash bros popularity was so much higher back then, OH WAIT.

Mario Kart has been popular since the 90s and Smash Brothers Melee sold 7 million copies on a 21 million user base it was popular already.

Yep, zero doesnt deal in facts.



DietSoap said:
DerNebel said:

I'm just...I... seriously how can people still make assumptions like that? You know you're on a sales site here so you can easily look at the data we have, right? How can you look at those numbers and still think that 2 games are suddenly going to completely turn the Wii U around?


Well... What does the PS4 or One even have for 2014 that can match two of the biggest hitters in the entire industry, Smash and Mario Kart (you know, the game that sold over 30 million last gen)? Infamous 3million LTD? Titanfall that's also on 360 and PC? Some crossgen multiplats also strewn across both next gen platforms and PC, with some even on Wii U?

Seriously, I'm just not seeing anything that can even come close to pushing units like Smash and Mario Kart. Couple that with my expectation that a new mainline Zelda and a new Metroid will be shown off this E3 as well as a drop to $200 for the holidays (not even counting the black friday deals), and yeah... I just don't see how either the PS4 or One can hope to match it.

The Wii U is going to absolutely explode in sales this year, I still can't believe people foolishly underestimate Nintendo time and time again only for them to dominate each and every time.

Well, I guess it's still possible to close your eyes and ears and just ignore everything that's going on in the real world. Don't get me wrong Smash and MK will sell great and they will move consoles, but the Wii Us problems reach way deeper than just not having the right Nintendo games out right now, so getting those games, that everyone and their grandmother knew were coming since before the console was out, released is not suddenly going to save the thing and that some people still don't seem to want to face that simply boggles my mind.

You know what's pushing PS4s and X1s right now? It's people being tired of this gen, it's people just wanting to make the switch, over 5 million people have already switched just because of that and I'll guarantee that a good percentage of PS4s will be sold this year just because of that, it doesn't need one specific game to sell. All the third party and first party games that will come out this year (btw a lot more games than the Wii U'll get), cross gen, multi or exclusive will account for the rest of the people buying a PS4 or X1, which will be alot. And the PS4 is going to almost certainly take the majority between it and the X1 thanks to a number of advantages, so yeah...I'm not going to say anything about the X1 but the PS4 is going to outsell the Wii U this year, by a healthy margin, I'm sure of that.

Also Nintendo dominated one home console generation of the last three, so your "they dominate each and every time" comment makes no sense.



DerNebel said:

Also Nintendo dominated one home console generation of the last three, so your "they dominate each and every time" comment makes no sense.


They didnt even do that. They dominated for a quarter of a gen. Thats it.