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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Will Probably Outsell Wii U by Spring Globally - Michael Pachter

think-man on 02 January 2014

Well I was thinking by August, but the PS4 is already outselling the WiiU every week without Japan it'll be much sooner than I thought. 



 

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Nem on 02 January 2014
vivster said:

Nem said:

"GamerFitNation suspected that the PS4 would outsell the Wii U by March, and we contacted Pachter, managing director of equity research for Wedbush Securities, for his opinion."

So now that I made sure it isn't your eyes that are broken. If you still don't get what this big bold part of text means then it's obviously just your non existant reading comprehension.

It clearly states that they were the ones reaching out to Pachter. Pachter doesn't throw numbers around at will. He always responds to questions from Twitter, emails or forums. This site asked, he answered. End of story.


My eyes certainly werent broken. I quoted the OP. None of that was there. I know you think you're special and i need to either click the link, wich i refuse to do, or dig up your post in the confines of the thread, wich i dont care about.

You are accusing me of not reading something that isnt there. Very rich indeed. Carry on.



DietSoap on 02 January 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
DietSoap said:


Well... What does the PS4 or One even have for 2014 that can match two of the biggest hitters in the entire industry, Smash and Mario Kart (you know, the game that sold over 30 million last gen)? Infamous 3million LTD? Titanfall that's also on 360 and PC? Some crossgen multiplats also strewn across both next gen platforms and PC, with some even on Wii U?


Yes. Imagine that. People want to play a variety of games. Also, no... Wii U will not drop to 200 dollars... Unless it's a fire sale

Sure, and as I pointed out, those variety of games aren't just on PS4, they aren't just on the Xbox One, they're on the PS4, the Xbox One, the PC, the 360, the PS3, and some even on the Wii U. When CoD sells 20 million (and with the way Ghosts hurt the series, that may be overly generous at this point), but those sales are stretched out over 6 platforms, and yet you have two 10 million sellers that can ONLY be found on the Wii U... Yeah.

And lol, yeah you better hope they don't drop it to $200, because the Wii U is going to absolutely crush the One and PS4 when it does.



Zero999 on 02 January 2014
DerNebel said:
DietSoap said:
... Did he just forget about Mario Kart in spring or something?

I like Pachter and all, but yeah, nah, 2014 is going to be an absolute monster of a year for the Wii U. Between that and Smash it's going to sell more than the PS4 and Xbox One for the full year easily.

I'm just...I... seriously how can people still make assumptions like that? You know you're on a sales site here so you can easily look at the data we have, right? How can you look at those numbers and still think that 2 games are suddenly going to completely turn the Wii U around?

"2 games"

You heard it first here, folks. wii u only has two games in 2014 and it's situation didn't get any better already.



Iamdamilkman on 02 January 2014
Zero999 said:
DerNebel said:
DietSoap said:
... Did he just forget about Mario Kart in spring or something?

I like Pachter and all, but yeah, nah, 2014 is going to be an absolute monster of a year for the Wii U. Between that and Smash it's going to sell more than the PS4 and Xbox One for the full year easily.

I'm just...I... seriously how can people still make assumptions like that? You know you're on a sales site here so you can easily look at the data we have, right? How can you look at those numbers and still think that 2 games are suddenly going to completely turn the Wii U around?

"2 games"

You heard it first here, folks. wii u only has two games in 2014 and it's situation didn't get any better already.

Thats not what he said you took that completely out of context. He was just quoting what another poster said about those 2 games making such a huge difference (They won"t).



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Max King of the Wild on 02 January 2014
DietSoap said:

And lol, yeah you better hope they don't drop it to $200, because the Wii U is going to absolutely crush the One and PS4 when it does.

and put Nintendo into the red for years to come



thismeintiel on 02 January 2014
DerNebel said:
Zero999 said:

“I am pretty sure the Wii U will still be ahead in March, but PS4 is going to pass it in 2014 at some point. PS4 will only be at 5-5.5 million by March, Wii U should be a hair ahead of that. Probably April or May,” said Pachter.

I thought this guy couldn't get more stupid. guess I was wrong.

Thanks for your opinion on someone elses console sales prediction Mr "10.2mil Wii Us sold by the end of 2013" and "22mil Wii Us sold by the end of 2014"

And Pachter's prediction is actually lowballing it a little.  I would think that the PS4 may be able to beat it in March if Sony can keep up with production.  Japan will add quite a bit, considering it sold out of its 2 preorder allotments within 48 hrs.  I would imagine Sony is going to make sure to have ~400K ready for launch.



 

thismeintiel on 02 January 2014
Dark_Feanor said:
Max King of the Wild said:
Dark_Feanor said:


As I understand, reality is based on facts, that you can prove or disprove. For now VGChartz numbers can´t be proven or disproved, they are just guestimatives.

So, going back to the OP, how do you or our friend know that Sony "is producing more PS4 than before"?


yes, vgc is just estimates. But for HW its a pretty reasonable estimate considering all the data we recieved from outside resources. As for how we know Sony is producing morethan 5mil is because thats what companies do when they underestimate demand. Nintendo did it for the Wii. Considering they are sold out everywhere at the end of the quarter then they have to produce another 1.5m to supply retail again if a total of 0 units sell this upcoming quarter. Im pretty sure Sony doesnt want their system supply constrained till next year so they have to increase production

 

The PS4 is not as nearly supply constrined the level the Wii was. Sony built and sold a lot more PS4 than Nintendo did with the Wii first hollydays.

The Wii was a completly different system, very cheap, very atractive for non gamers. Nintendo understimate sales for a large margin. Wiis could be found at EBay for two or three times the retail price.

Today the demand  for the PS4 has been satisfied, even with the system sold out at many places. There is no rush to buy the console for the next 2 or 3 months.

But forget about demand. My question is about production.

Is Sony producing more than they previous expected?

How much Sony first expected?

When Sony decided to produce more?

Where are the leads they are producing more?

If you don´t have the answers there is no shame. I just don´t like to discuss make beliving assuptions.

Are you being serious?  A console that is sold out, and then sells out within 24 hrs of going into stock (no rush, huh ), has satisfied demand.  Okay, whatever you say.



 

Rafux on 02 January 2014
DietSoap said:
DerNebel said:
DietSoap said:
... Did he just forget about Mario Kart in spring or something?

I like Pachter and all, but yeah, nah, 2014 is going to be an absolute monster of a year for the Wii U. Between that and Smash it's going to sell more than the PS4 and Xbox One for the full year easily.

I'm just...I... seriously how can people still make assumptions like that? You know you're on a sales site here so you can easily look at the data we have, right? How can you look at those numbers and still think that 2 games are suddenly going to completely turn the Wii U around?


Well... What does the PS4 or One even have for 2014 that can match two of the biggest hitters in the entire industry, Smash and Mario Kart (you know, the game that sold over 30 million last gen)? Infamous 3million LTD? Titanfall that's also on 360 and PC? Some crossgen multiplats also strewn across both next gen platforms and PC, with some even on Wii U?

Seriously, I'm just not seeing anything that can even come close to pushing units like Smash and Mario Kart. Couple that with my expectation that a new mainline Zelda and a new Metroid will be shown off this E3 as well as a drop to $200 for the holidays (not even counting the black friday deals), and yeah... I just don't see how either the PS4 or One can hope to match it.

The Wii U is going to absolutely explode in sales this year, I still can't believe people foolishly underestimate Nintendo time and time again only for them to dominate each and every time.

Mario Kart and Smash Bros will save the Wii U like they did with the Gamecube... oh wait a minute

Don't understimate Titanfall its going to blow up also Bungie is releasing his long awaited new game Destiny and Watchdogs looks like a winner.



DerNebel on 02 January 2014
Zero999 said:
DerNebel said:

I'm just...I... seriously how can people still make assumptions like that? You know you're on a sales site here so you can easily look at the data we have, right? How can you look at those numbers and still think that 2 games are suddenly going to completely turn the Wii U around?

"2 games"

You heard it first here, folks. wii u only has two games in 2014 and it's situation didn't get any better already.

You do realize that I said that, to account for the 2 games he mentioned in his post right? Also regarding the situation getting better, how about we talk about this after we see some post holiday numbers.