after reading the netflix thread, i realized that the "home entertainment machine" is not a thing of future, but it is right around the corner. both the ps3 and 360 are positioned to be home hubs, and i imagine other companies will start negotiating deals with these console manufacturers.

the primary difference between the ps3 and 360 is the inclusion of blu-ray. now that blu-ray for all intents and purposes have won the format war, the ps3 seems to have a tremendous advantage over the 360. for just ~$100 extra, you get an HD player and a much more reliable piece of hardware. that's almost certainly well worth it.

the gaming library seems equivalent on those machines to the non-partisan.

why should the consumer who is ambivalent towards gaming on either machine choose the 360 then?

i think there is good likelihood the ps3 could start doing well in the US. maybe not so much in terms of game software sold, but in terms of hardware sold.

Maybe that is why it has been boosted in Jan (according to NPD)

 What he said.  I don't think it will ever be as succesful as the Wii, unless its sales drop precipitously, or even the 360, but I think it will carve out a market for itself.

The problem is that a console can have the best hardware sales in the world, but if the software sales don't match up (maybe people bought PS3s just for the Blu-ray player), then your console really is not doing well at all.

Look at Europe, where Hi-Def has barely made a breakthrough. The PS3 attach rates there are great, and have netted the system several million sellers. Look at Japan and America, where Hi-Def is becoming increasingly more popular.

The software is nothing to brag about in those two places. Sure the userbase is limited, but one should expect more.

@ montana hatchet, when the games come people will buy them. Most of these games do not quite attract the US market as much as the European market, but I'm pretty sure that software sales will pick up

Still need software success in order to come close (if ever) to Wii's success. In fact, a lot of PS3 owners know that Wii is in a different league at this point, with different targeting audience. PS3 will probably sell 60-100 million units and just be happy with 2nd place.

Blu-Ray win will certainly sell 20% more PS3 at least than if it's still a stalemate, just look at Jan's number. But to prolong this boost, it can't do it without great games.

Depends on what you mean by "Successful" ...  it is primarily an arbitrary term that can be argued regardless of the outcome.

Personally, I mentioned around January 2007 that the PS3 was built based on the unmaintainable spending habits of Americans which were (likely) going to be reversed in the future; Americans had increased their spending power far faster than their incomes through easy to access credit and imaginary home equity. Every day it seems more and more likely that Americans will be forced to live within their means for the foreseable future. What does this mean?

Expect HDTV adoption to slow as fewer Americans can (and are willing to) increase their debt load to buy a $1000+ toy; with fewer HDTVs expect "High Definition" to become less of a selling feature for Blu-Ray movies and Videogame consoles in the near future. Expect people to change what they mean by "big purchases" and for anything over $100 to $200 to become a "big purchase" for most families.

All in all, although Blu-Ray will help the PS3 don't expect its sales to ascend to a new level ...

If somebody has no interest in playing games I bet they would get a standalone player. Now if somebody wants a blu-ray player, and thinks they might want to get some PS3 games sometime, or maybe they have kids that would want to play on it, they would get a PS3.

I'm assuming (and hoping) this will happen and keep attach rates high.

@ happy squirriel, even with that, the price of the PS3 and HDTVs will drop where it is still a big purchase, but a managable one