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Forums - Nintendo - Wii U to rule in Japan: yay!

justiceiro said:
Cobretti2 said:
Well i'll throw in my conspiracy theory into the mix as to why wii u will win Japan.

The Wii U sales seem much bigger than a holiday boost to me considering how bad it was selling.

Sony has betrayed their own country
by not releasing the PS4 there around the same time, whilst the Gajin's get one first. The Japanese are are proud people and therefore will support the other Japanese console instead.


Sony just shot themselves in the foot.

I don't know how much the rest of you know about Japanese culture (I'm an expert), but honor and shame are huge parts of it. It's not like it is in America where you can become successful by being an asshole. If you screw someone over in Japan, you bring shame to yourself, and the only way to get rid of that shame is repentance.

What this means is the japanese public, after hearing about this, is not going to want to purchase PS4 at any time, nor will they purchase any other sony consoles. This is HUGE. You can laugh all you want, but Sony has alienated an entire market with this move.

Sony, publicly apologize and redirect all your next shippments to japan or you can kiss your business goodbye.

If you try to report me or respond to this message, i will put your answer as a perpetue remider that you know nothing about internet rage history :)

There is some truth to this; my Japanese friends from college said pretty much the same thing, and that nationality and brand loyalty and the business-consumer relationship is a bigger deal there than it is in the West; however, it will not be that pronounced. In the long run, Sony won't have cost itself much marketshare.



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zorg1000 said:
Lawlight said:
benji232 said:
Mummelmann said:
A holiday boost, no competition and numbers still below Gamecube levels for christmas equals ruling Japan now? I think this is a very premature statement. That said; I'd be surprised if any home console manages more than 12-15 million in Japan this gen.

Right.

GameCube, 2002:
Week 49, 39,849
Week 50, 44,902
Week 51, 66,410
Week 52, 60,290

Wii U, 2013:
Week 49, 46,773
Week 50, 72,982
Week 51, 119,159


Wrong:

GameCube, 2001:
Week 49, 52,806
Week 50, 100,882
Week 51, 168,268
Week 52, 130,719

That was Gamecube launch year, the other comparison is december of the first full year.

I see. Ok. The WiiU will definitely outsell the GC as there's still some remnants of the Wii purchasers around. 40M seems about right.



Rafux said:
Remind me again where will japanese people play NEXT GEN Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Kingdom Hearts, Yakuza, Metal Gear Rising, Devil May Cry, Gran Turismo and Street Fighter series among others? Oh thats right on PS4.

Wii U with one year ahead of games and exclusives can't beat a console with no stock to be found.

Remind me, which of those franchises (not counting the spinoff Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles games) were found on the Wii? Oh, that's right, the Wii dominated in Japan without any of them.

Meanwhile, the Wii U has (or will have) Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario, Donkey Kong, and Wii series. Do you know what sets those franchises apart? They represent 36 of the top 41 games ever in Japan, with the remaining five being Final Fantasy 7 and 8, Tomodachi Collection, Tetris, and Brain Training. Number 42 is Street Fighter.

So tell me again how PS4 has all of the exclusives that the Japanese people want.



Lawlight said:
benji232 said:
Mummelmann said:
A holiday boost, no competition and numbers still below Gamecube levels for christmas equals ruling Japan now? I think this is a very premature statement. That said; I'd be surprised if any home console manages more than 12-15 million in Japan this gen.

Right.

GameCube, 2002:
Week 49, 39,849
Week 50, 44,902
Week 51, 66,410
Week 52, 60,290

Wii U, 2013:
Week 49, 46,773
Week 50, 72,982
Week 51, 119,159


Wrong:

GameCube, 2001:
Week 49, 52,806
Week 50, 100,882
Week 51, 168,268
Week 52, 130,719

Uh? That was it's launch year. Were comparing year 2 vs year 2. 
EDIT: Someone already replied for me :P.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

Mummelmann said:
benji232 said:
Mummelmann said:
A holiday boost, no competition and numbers still below Gamecube levels for christmas equals ruling Japan now? I think this is a very premature statement. That said; I'd be surprised if any home console manages more than 12-15 million in Japan this gen.

Right.

GameCube, 2002:
Week 49, 39,849
Week 50, 44,902
Week 51, 66,410
Week 52, 60,290

Wii U, 2013:
Week 49, 46,773
Week 50, 72,982
Week 51, 119,159


Right. Have you seen the 2003 numbers for GC in Japan for this week? Week 51 was 129k as I recall, these numbers are not overly impressive, especially with no competition. The Wii U is still behind the GC in Japan at this point, GC sold about 1.040.000 units in 2003 in Japan, Wii U still has a ways to go to sell over one million in one year here.

"still below Gamecube levels for christmas" really nothing in there about "christmas 2002", is there? Or christmas 2004 for that matter, which was pretty bad. You might think that it's unfair to compare the GC's best holiday with the Wii U's worst (for now) but then again; the Wii U has no competition, the GC already had the PS2 to battle at this point and still managed a pretty good holiday in 2003, even in the West. There's no way to tell whether next holiday will be better or worse with some actual competition, so it is also way too soon to be calling the Wii U the victor in Japan.

People are so hung up on shooting down One and PS4 predictions based on launch hype (and rightly so) and saying that there is no proper data to draw any conclusion from, but make ridiculous claims like the OP at the same time, it's equally silly since we actually don't have any valid data to go by for now. If the Wii U outsells the PS4 weekly through 2014 after the PS4's launch and then beats it during holidays 2014, then we can start making these claims.

I mean, honestly; are you impressed with what the Wii U has accomplished with its one year head start?

I never agreed with the OP. And I'm not buying that *no competition* excuse. Nintendo and Sony are aiming for two very different audiences in Japan. I don't think PS4 would have affected sales of the wiiU by a lot. 

With that said, wiiU had a horrible first full year on the market in Japan (and worldwide). However, the system has been showing that it's been having a lot of momentum on it's side ever since the launch of wii party U bundle. I believe the wiiU will have a baseline of around 20k in Japan in 2014 which would be decent enough all things considered. I just can't see the system going back to that 3k baseline.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

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Aielyn said:
Rafux said:
Remind me again where will japanese people play NEXT GEN Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Kingdom Hearts, Yakuza, Metal Gear Rising, Devil May Cry, Gran Turismo and Street Fighter series among others? Oh thats right on PS4.

Wii U with one year ahead of games and exclusives can't beat a console with no stock to be found.

Remind me, which of those franchises (not counting the spinoff Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles games) were found on the Wii? Oh, that's right, the Wii dominated in Japan without any of them.

Meanwhile, the Wii U has (or will have) Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario, Donkey Kong, and Wii series. Do you know what sets those franchises apart? They represent 36 of the top 41 games ever in Japan, with the remaining five being Final Fantasy 7 and 8, Tomodachi Collection, Tetris, and Brain Training. Number 42 is Street Fighter.

So tell me again how PS4 has all of the exclusives that the Japanese people want.

Protip: Wii U is not the Wii

Wii was a phenomenon and even with that horrible start PS3 is 3 million behind the Wii on Japan.

Those exclusives you listed are first party which always sell well on Nintendo platforms but didn't save the Gamecube or the N64. Monster Hunter will inevitably have a version for each platform and Dragon Quest you don't know yet if DQ11 is WiiU exclusive.



This thread will be funny in a year...



 

Rafux said:
Protip: Wii U is not the Wii

Wii was a phenomenon and even with that horrible start PS3 is 3 million behind the Wii on Japan.

Those exclusives you listed are first party which always sell well on Nintendo platforms but didn't save the Gamecube or the N64. Monster Hunter will inevitably have a version for each platform and Dragon Quest you don't know yet if DQ11 is WiiU exclusive.

The point regarding PS3 vs Wii was that PS3 had all of those franchises you listed while Wii had the ones I then listed (with Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest not coming until fairly late in the generation), yet the Wii clearly dominated in Japan, horrible start for PS3 or not.

The Dragon Quest franchise (including spinoffs and main series games) hasn't been on any console system other than Nintendo consoles since 2006, with no signs of change in the near future. Meanwhile, there is a Dragon Quest game on the Wii U already. Monster Hunter is also already on the Wii U, and the best-selling PS3 MH sold just half a million copies, whereas the MH3 for Wii sold over a million copies - even adjusting for install base, the Wii comes out ahead. And Capcom have clearly chosen the 3DS for portable MH going forwards, so what are the chances that they'll choose the PS4 for a Monster Hunter any time soon?

Meanwhile, let me spin your argument right back at you - how can you be sure that Kingdom Hearts 3 won't release on Wii U? Or the next Final Fantasy? Or Metal Gear? Or Yakuza (especially given Sega's increasing closeness to Nintendo)? Or Street Fighter? Or Devil May Cry? By the exact same reasoning that you just used for Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest, you cannot dismiss the flipside.

As for Nintendo first-party franchises, there's a key difference - the Wii series. In Japan, Wii Party U has driven Wii U sales through the roof, relatively speaking. Mario 3D World has helped, but Wii Party U is the game that is selling the system the most. And Animal Crossing didn't become a major franchise until the DS version, which came after the Gamecube version (obviously).

Also, Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter weren't on Gamecube, and MH wasn't a big franchise at the time.

So really, it all comes down to me demonstrating that your argument is flawed - I'm not arguing that the Wii U franchise lineup will mean the Wii U will dominate. I'm arguing that the franchise lineup you provided doesn't even remotely support the argument that PS4 will dominate. And you have yet to counter that argument.



Aielyn said:
Rafux said:
Protip: Wii U is not the Wii

Wii was a phenomenon and even with that horrible start PS3 is 3 million behind the Wii on Japan.

Those exclusives you listed are first party which always sell well on Nintendo platforms but didn't save the Gamecube or the N64. Monster Hunter will inevitably have a version for each platform and Dragon Quest you don't know yet if DQ11 is WiiU exclusive.

The point regarding PS3 vs Wii was that PS3 had all of those franchises you listed while Wii had the ones I then listed (with Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest not coming until fairly late in the generation), yet the Wii clearly dominated in Japan, horrible start for PS3 or not.

The Dragon Quest franchise (including spinoffs and main series games) hasn't been on any console system other than Nintendo consoles since 2006, with no signs of change in the near future. Meanwhile, there is a Dragon Quest game on the Wii U already. Monster Hunter is also already on the Wii U, and the best-selling PS3 MH sold just half a million copies, whereas the MH3 for Wii sold over a million copies - even adjusting for install base, the Wii comes out ahead. And Capcom have clearly chosen the 3DS for portable MH going forwards, so what are the chances that they'll choose the PS4 for a Monster Hunter any time soon?

Meanwhile, let me spin your argument right back at you - how can you be sure that Kingdom Hearts 3 won't release on Wii U? Or the next Final Fantasy? Or Metal Gear? Or Yakuza (especially given Sega's increasing closeness to Nintendo)? Or Street Fighter? Or Devil May Cry? By the exact same reasoning that you just used for Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest, you cannot dismiss the flipside.

As for Nintendo first-party franchises, there's a key difference - the Wii series. In Japan, Wii Party U has driven Wii U sales through the roof, relatively speaking. Mario 3D World has helped, but Wii Party U is the game that is selling the system the most. And Animal Crossing didn't become a major franchise until the DS version, which came after the Gamecube version (obviously).

Also, Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter weren't on Gamecube, and MH wasn't a big franchise at the time.

So really, it all comes down to me demonstrating that your argument is flawed - I'm not arguing that the Wii U franchise lineup will mean the Wii U will dominate. I'm arguing that the franchise lineup you provided doesn't even remotely support the argument that PS4 will dominate. And you have yet to counter that argument.


Again Wii U is not the Wii, Wii was a phenomenon and you can't dismiss the fact that PS3 had a horrible start (quite the opposite of PS4) and yet it will finish only a couple of millions behind the Wii.

I can assure Kingdom Hearts or any of those franchises won't release on Wii U because they would have been announced already, MGS5 is even coming to PS360 there's no reason to release it later Wii U obviously can handle MGS5. Devil May Cry and Yakuza has never been on a Nintendo platform the audience is not there, DQ has been succesfully on Sony platforms before it could happen on PS4 but I think DQ11 will be 3DS exclusive and Street Fighter 5 we'll see about that one yet because Capcom loves porting SF.

Also I never said Monster Hunter won't be coming to Wii U or that it will exclusive to PS4 I said there will be a version on every platform even mobiles phones.

Bottom line is Wii U third party won't be as strong as PS4, it has never been and thats why in my opinion PS4 will take Japan.



naruball said:
farlaff said:

 if we take what is happening now in, say, the US, where the sales of the U are not much far from those of the PS4 (even though the latter has all the hype train to help it) as any indication, Japan is to see Nintendo rule there again 


Not to rain on your parade, but not sure if serious. You do realize that the ps4 is suffering from massive shortages, right? Basically, every console they can ship, they sell. Even after the holidays, if there are no shortages, the ps4 will suffer from a drought and some will wait till next holidays when it has a decent library. I think in order to make a fair comparison, you'll have to wait till then.

Now when it comes to Japan, you absolutely have to wait till the ps4 launch. No matter how much you love Ninty, you just have to wait till after the ps4 shortages end in Japan before jumping to any conclusions. 

I AM serious. The supposed shortage is just part of the answer. If that is all of it, why is PS3 still selling so well? Wouldn't it be natural that those people buying the 3 should in fact be waiting to buy the 4? 

For the regular Joe, PS4 is not much of an upgrade and the market WILL suffer from that. Whereas, debatable as it is, the gamepad does add something different.

And, to top it all, I'm attempting to make a prediction but, for the most part, the topic reflects my desire of a japanese development rise from all the room it has lost to westerns. If they come to WiiU, that I already have (I was about to skip this gen like I did on the PS2 era to keep PC only), so much the better.