I think there's a chance.
Based on current curve I thought 3DS will sell 75 Million. Just curious to see some analysis why it would sell 100 Million. I'll show you mine, you show me your analysis.
- 3DS is currently at ~44 Million.
- 3DS is currently selling 1/3 of DS at the same time. That's what I use as the trend.
- DS sales in last 6 years of life ~110 Million. 1/3rd = ~37 Million
- DS sales in last 5 years of life ~85 Million. 1/3rd = ~28 Million
- DS sales in last 4 years of life ~55 Million 1/3rd = ~18 Million
So based on current trend, and not being discontinued until 9 years old (!) it would get to ~80 Million. ~75 is a bit more conservative.
Another way to think about it is at it's peak 3DS sold 1/2 of DS in a year. Project that you get again ~75 million. Unless we think 3DS will have beter legs than DS... so far it looks like the opposite.
100 Million would take a big change, like a 200% boost in how 3DS is doing this year which seems unlikely given that it's actually in a 25% decline.