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Forums - Nintendo - To Wii U "Haters": Why Do You Think Wii U Will Sell On The Same Level Or Worse Than GameCube?

Nintentacle said:
chapset said:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=170598&page=-1#1
look at the gamecube numbers than look at the wii u's and be sad

I already knew GameCube is tracking ahead of Wii U, but didn't Wii U used to be ahead of PS360? Anything could happen. Remember when Vita was going to dominate? The exact opposite happened.

when was the vita going to dominate, did you listen to gilgamesh again? wii U ahead of the ps360? first month maybe, the situation changed really fast after that. The ps3 did around 5.7 mill the first 11months (jan-07 to novem-07)of it's first year, the wii u did around 2mill (jan-13 to november-13)



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

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All Wii U needs is a better library. GCN had a better library, thus was able to sustain better sales. Wii U has Pikmin, an HD remake, and a poor excuse for a "next-gen" 3D Mario title, that's not enough to carry it around. All Wii U needs is consistent releases of games, good advertising, and I'm certain it can surpass GCN numbers if/when that happens.



chapset said:
Nintentacle said:
chapset said:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=170598&page=-1#1
look at the gamecube numbers than look at the wii u's and be sad

I already knew GameCube is tracking ahead of Wii U, but didn't Wii U used to be ahead of PS360? Anything could happen. Remember when Vita was going to dominate? The exact opposite happened.

when was the vita going to dominate, did you listen to gilgamesh again? wii U ahead of the ps360? first month maybe, the situation changed really fast after that. The ps3 did around 5.7 mill the first 11months (jan-07 to novem-07)of it's first year, the wii u did around 2mill (jan-13 to november-13)

 

That PS3/Wii U number you're citing is worldwide sales, no? 



i believe Nintendo will get it right in the end...

it is bad marketing along with high price

Nintendo could make WiiU a hit by simply releasing it with Wii Sports U or something, having the new sports game use the tablet and motion plus, better graphics, online etc...

this could appeal to mass audience and show WiiU capabilities at the same time, I did not even play NintendoLand, but definitely, sports would be more catchy and more ''Wii successor''



don't mind my username, that was more than 10 years ago, I'm a different person now, amazing how people change ^_^

Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Yeah certainly I expect a pretty ugly collapse for Wii U sales from Jan-March this year even with DKC.

Probably like 30k for Jan, 35k for Feb, and 30k for March for the US market.

I can see some logic in Wii U selling GameCube level, even if I think it'll do better. But this is either a sad excuse for trolling, or an unlogical prediction. 


I'm tired of Wii U apologists saying stuff like with nothing to back them up. You guys have been dead wrong *all year long*, talked a big game all year long about how this fall was going to change everything, and labelled anyone a troll for making predictions that in many cases actually were higher than what the actual numbers turned out to be.

Some humilty is in order, IMO. There's nothing unreasonable about my predictions. 

Let's make a bet.


Why don't you make an actual prediction with actual numbers of your own so it can be on record for everyone to see? I'd venture a bet that if you were asked to predict Wii U sales every month from day 1, every month you would list them to be considerably higher than what they actually turn out to be. 

When you have to make actual predictions based on numbers that when reality sets in a little bit because you have to actually look at what the data is telling you. 

Nov - 220k (confirmed); 280-290k was my prediction. 

Dec - 380k 

Jan - 30k

Feb - 30-38k

Mar - 35k

Would be my predictions, barring an unforseen change like a price drop before April. 

December: 360k

January: 42k

February: 45k

March: 39k



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forethought14 said:
All Wii U needs is a better library. GCN had a better library, thus was able to sustain better sales. Wii U has Pikmin, an HD remake, and a poor excuse for a "next-gen" 3D Mario title, that's not enough to carry it around. All Wii U needs is consistent releases of games, good advertising, and I'm certain it can surpass GCN numbers if/when that happens.


I would guessed that too, except the release schedule has picked up nicely since last August. 

Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101, Splinter Cell: Blacklist, Sonic: Lost World, Wii Party U, Zelda: Wind Waker HD, Batman, ACIV, Wii Sports Club, Wii Fit U, Super Mario 3D World, Mario & Sonic Sochi Olympics, Just Dance 2014, plus a $50 price drop and new NSMBU + Skylanders hardware bundles.

And sales really are not showing any real uptick. October and November sales were horrible. 



Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Yeah certainly I expect a pretty ugly collapse for Wii U sales from Jan-March this year even with DKC.

Probably like 30k for Jan, 35k for Feb, and 30k for March for the US market.

I can see some logic in Wii U selling GameCube level, even if I think it'll do better. But this is either a sad excuse for trolling, or an unlogical prediction. 


I'm tired of Wii U apologists saying stuff like with nothing to back them up. You guys have been dead wrong *all year long*, talked a big game all year long about how this fall was going to change everything, and labelled anyone a troll for making predictions that in many cases actually were higher than what the actual numbers turned out to be.

Some humilty is in order, IMO. There's nothing unreasonable about my predictions. 

Let's make a bet.


Why don't you make an actual prediction with actual numbers of your own so it can be on record for everyone to see? I'd venture a bet that if you were asked to predict Wii U sales every month from day 1, every month you would list them to be considerably higher than what they actually turn out to be. 

When you have to make actual predictions based on numbers that when reality sets in a little bit because you have to actually look at what the data is telling you. 

Nov - 220k (confirmed); 280-290k was my prediction. 

Dec - 380k 

Jan - 30k

Feb - 30-38k

Mar - 35k

Would be my predictions, barring an unforseen change like a price drop before April. 

December: 360k

January: 42k

February: 45k

March: 39k


That's fine, but your predictions are basically in line with mine, lol. Next time try not to play the "are you trolling card" when your own predictions are fairly similar. 



I can't understand why the GC never sold that well. If GTA was on the cube I probably never would have even bothered with the PS2. The GC and PC had all the other games I wanted.



Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Nintentacle said:
Soundwave said:
Yeah certainly I expect a pretty ugly collapse for Wii U sales from Jan-March this year even with DKC.

Probably like 30k for Jan, 35k for Feb, and 30k for March for the US market.

I can see some logic in Wii U selling GameCube level, even if I think it'll do better. But this is either a sad excuse for trolling, or an unlogical prediction. 


I'm tired of Wii U apologists saying stuff like with nothing to back them up. You guys have been dead wrong *all year long*, talked a big game all year long about how this fall was going to change everything, and labelled anyone a troll for making predictions that in many cases actually were higher than what the actual numbers turned out to be.

Some humilty is in order, IMO. There's nothing unreasonable about my predictions. 

Let's make a bet.


Why don't you make an actual prediction with actual numbers of your own so it can be on record for everyone to see? I'd venture a bet that if you were asked to predict Wii U sales every month from day 1, every month you would list them to be considerably higher than what they actually turn out to be. 

When you have to make actual predictions based on numbers that when reality sets in a little bit because you have to actually look at what the data is telling you. 

Nov - 220k (confirmed); 280-290k was my prediction. 

Dec - 380k 

Jan - 30k

Feb - 30-38k

Mar - 35k

Would be my predictions, barring an unforseen change like a price drop before April. 

December: 360k

January: 42k

February: 45k

March: 39k


That's fine, but your predictions are basically in line with mine, lol. Next time try not to play the "are you trolling card" when your own predictions are fairly similar. 

Yes, but you still predicted a higher drop.

You choose: For every month the official numbers are closer to the prediction, the person who's number was closer... 

Can't choose sig control because I don't have one, and have no clue how to get one, and everyone uses it.



http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly.php/?reg=World&console=&date=2002&maker=

http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly.php/?reg=World&console=&date=2003&maker=

Not sure how accurate this is but it says that Gamecube sold over 7m buy the end of its first full year and with the way things are going Wii U will likely be around 5.5m by the end of the year, give or take a few 100k. By the end of 2003 GC was at 13.4m so in order for Wii U to match that it will have to sell about 8m in 2014.

Now there are some things to take into consideration, GC was $199 at launch and $149 within 6 months wo at any gicen point it was $50-100 cheaper than its rivals vs Wii U being $299-349 in its first year or $50-100 more expensive than its rivals. Now with PS4/One out its $100-200 cheaper than its main rivals so maybe going into next year that will make it seem like a better option.

Also Gamecube had a better release schedule from 1st/3rd parties and didnt suffer nearly as big a drought as Wii U. In the launch window GC had Luigi's Mansion, Smash Bros Melee, Rogue Squadron, Wave Race, Pikmin, Super Monkey Ball as key exclusives and in the first 3 quarters of 2002 had Sonic Adventure 2, Resident Evil Remake, Eternal Darkness, Mario Sunshine, Star Fox Adventures, Animal Crossing. In the holiday quarter it had Mario Party 4, Metroid Prime, Resident Evil Zero, Super Monkey Ball 2 and Sonic Mega Collection also throughout the year it had a majority of multiplat releases.

Wii U had New Super Mario Bros U, Nintendo Land and ZombiU as key launch exclusives. Exclusives in the first 3 quarters of this year included Lego City Undercover, Game & Wario, Pikmin 3, New Super Luigi U, Wonderful 101 and only a fraction of multiplats. Things have picked up in the holiday quarter with Wind Waker HD, Sonic Lost World, Wii Party U, Mario & Sonic Olympics and Mario 3D World and better multiplat support.

So Gamecube was cheaper than the competition and had strong support from both 1st and 3rd parties. For the majority of this year Wii U has been the most expensive option and had terrible support from both 1st and 3rd parties but In the last few months that has changed and Wii U sales have been increasing, we wont know until early next year if thats just a holiday boost or if there really is increased demand in Wii U.

As for needing 8m next year to match GC sales thru 2003, I think its possible. It may recieve a true price cut next year (this years price cut was more like a bundle realignment) and has some big games lined up like Donkey Kong, Mario Kart and Smash Bros which all are typically 5m+ sellers, also some smaller games like Bayonetta, X, Yarn Yoshi, Sonic, SMTxFE if spaced out nicely can help give Wii U a consistant release schedule next year and Nintendo has some unannounced games coming next year. Its not certain but i think its possible Wii U starts making up some lost ground against GC next year.

With the way Wii U is currently tracking it looks like its on pace to sell about 15m lifetime but if it has a solid turnaround something like 30m isnt out of the question.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.