Wow these numbers were a huge surprise. How was everyone so wrong?

The Wii sales weren't surprising at all.  Nintendo's supply chain was clearly off kilter due to the holidays and seemed to have extra units selling in Japan.  However, both the PS3 and Xbox 360 numbers were very surprising: the PS3 did extremely well and the 360 did more poorly than expected.

It's only one month and a month where both of the PS3's competitors had huge shortages, so there's no conclusion to draw here.  However, it certainly is interesting.  Let's see of February goes. 

I really hopes this whole mess about the difference between NPD and VGC don't affect the great image that with a lot of effort VGC had build,I believe that "ioi" can make some adjustments if he thinks that's right,both Microsoft and Sony acceptance to NPD January data confirms the NPD numbers,but I hope this ends well.

Wow this thread went crazy after I left. I always miss all the action. There's a lot of interesting things concerning this months NPD. Unfortunately we'll have to wait a few months to know for sure, but overall, one or more of the following things could be reasons for the difference between NPD and VGChartz:

• NPD adjusting numbers by lowering numbers (seems unlikely, why wouldn't they just change the previous months numbers?)
• Difference in samples shows preference to different consoles. The DS really stands out in this one
• NPD and/or ioi shows bias? <--- It's this one /sarcasm
• NPD was underestimating, VGChartz was overestimating, causing the numbers to be really off

As for comparisons, here are hardware comparisons:

I'd like to also point out some of the more interesting tidbits, starting with items that favor VGChartz numbers:

• WiiPlay usually sells 50-75% of whatever Wii hardware sells, yet this month it sold 108%
• DS doubled in holiday sales from 2006 to 2007, yet only managed a mere 30% increase Jan 07 to Jan 08? Even with supply issues last year in Jan, you'd think they would manage more this year (due to more supply). This could also favor NPD if the DS was really THAT sold out.
• As has been pointed out, VGChartz has been more accurate at times, and besides the DS and PS3 difference, the numbers are still within acceptable figures

Items that favor NPD numbers:

• Microsoft came out before NPD and said that there were some supply issues, thus PS3 outselling the 360 isn't surprising
• DS could have supply issues, just like it did in Jan 2007
• PS3 did 209k in the same period in America in 2007, so with price cuts and new SKUs, it's not surprising that it would sell more (and not less, like VGChartz)

I think we'll almost have to wait for Feb NPD at least to see how those numbers compare to these, and see how supply issues are effecting sales trends. And we'll also have to wait until March for shipment figures to really know.

Overall, I think those averages are probably good indicators of where the sales could be. What's really interesting though, is how all the consoles sold so similarly, all within 50k or so of each other (except for the DS, depending on which numbers you use).

Edit: I forgot to do software, but the only one that I think was really off was the SMG, and as some one else pointed out, NPD LTD of SMG is very close to VGChartz LTD of SMG, so at least that agrees. I don't know how to look up NPD LTD totals (or where to even find half of these numbers), so I have to rely on what people post for the most part. 

@ Stever, note this is a 4 week month, as opposed to the 5 week month last year, which is why the PS3's total sales could have been down according to VGC

I took that into account... if you click the link to 2007 PS3, it only uses 4 weeks, starting with "Week Ending Jan 14" and ending with "Week Ending Feb 4th" which is a 4 week period, and would, in theory, be the equivalent to this years 4 week period.

Will VGC numbers be updated ?

I

The fact that MS came out and acknowledge in a press release that they had issues with keeping the XboX360 in stocks tends to validate NPD numbers in terms of PS3 outselling the Xbox360...

I am conviced that MS is not as short on stock as they would like you to believe.. I went to Walmart today and they had 4 arcades behind the glass, 3 pros and 3 elites... I also talked to the Guy at the bigger GS near me and asked him about the 360, he said they sell steady, but never sell out before a new shipment comes in. I know it is anecdotal, but it has to mean something, if it was so contrained why do they keep sending my area so much when it is sold out other place? I live in Greenville SC, it is a commercially upbeat town, but not and Huge comercial area like, NY, Orlando, San Fran or whatever.

Some interesting thought ...

1. The first reports have Wii selling 374K units, the later sales had Wii selling 274K units (100K less). The higher number would be more fitting given the predictions and given the normal Wii Play: Wii sales ratio.

2. All the predictions were off the same way. Look at the SimsExchage, whose pre-NPD numbers were very close to VGC (and even higher for hardware sales).

3. A 60 percent sample size means nothing if not represetative. You can predict a presidential election in the US (upwards of 100M voters) with a sample size of 1K. But without Wal-Mart and Toys R Us - and relying heavily on Amazon.com (which has been discussed previously as being unrepresentative of acutal purchasing trends) - is merky.

4. We will never know the official corrections. Remember, NPD is estimates too. And they change too.

Basically, I think the order is right but the numbers are wrong -- and in some cases very wrong. I would tend to believe VGChartz because their process is more transparent.

Mike from Morgantown