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Forums - Gaming - Why is GAF treating Pachters Wii U prediction like its real sales data?

Soundwave on 09 December 2013
the_dengle said:

I don't think I've seen Pachter get his monthly predictions right once all year, so I'll be completely ignoring them as usual.

I've never understood why people want to draw conclusions based on such squishy numbers a mere three days before NPD. Pachter doesn't have any information we don't have -- in fact, his predictions are no more reliable than VGChartz numbers, and they have the Wii U selling roughly double what he says in November. Why should I trust either more than the other? I can have an iota of patience and wait for NPD.


Nintendo fans love jumping down Pacther's throat, but honestly his predictions are not that far off. If anything he is usually too generous in his Wii U numbers. 



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the_dengle on 09 December 2013
Soundwave said:


Nintendo fans love jumping down Pacther's throat, but honestly his predictions are not that far off. If anything he is usually too generous in his Wii U numbers. 

Well apparently he didn't bother making a prediction in August or October, but in September he predicted 55k and NPD reported 91k. One month isn't exactly conclusive, but I think it's clear that he doesn't have some kind of inside source with reliable information.

Mind you, that's just the Wii U, and only the most recent month he offered a prediction. He's been way off on other consoles loads of times as well.



Mummelmann on 09 December 2013
JGarret said:
If Pachter is off by 100K, it´ll still be less than the Gamecube in November 2005...at that point, the GC was in its 4th year, while the Wii U is still only a year old and on the back of Mario 3D World.

Hoping Pachter is off by like, 300 K.


I don't remember which thread it was but someone posted figures where they compared launch holiday season to the holiday season the year after, the trend was clear; most of them sold twice as much and up to three times as much the following holiday.

It's highly unlikely that the PS4/One will match that though, I can't see either selling 6 or 9 million over the holidays next year, pre-orders are the new thing, it seems. But, hwoever one looks at it, the Wii U is making history with these sales and not in a good way, doubly so when you consider the fact that it took over for a market leader. At this point, even with a 100% yoy increase in 2014, it will be hard pressed to reach the worst year the PS3/360 ever had, that's flat out unbelieveable.

OT: I think Pachter is a bit off here, I'm thinking 230-240k for NPD November with a 50-55% rise or so in December, NA is clearly the Wii U's strongest territory and will remain so.