I bet SONY domination starts now and gets 50% marketshare at the end of '08. (Yes it will sell 50mil units this year)

i dont think it will make it to 25%this year it might though in 2009

^the extra day this month is going to help the ps3 alot.

This is pretty close to the scenario 2 I outlined above. The Wii would have to slack on demand significantly, of course, as Nintendo's production is expected to be 1.8 million * 12 = 21.6 million units this year. If Nintendo doesn't increase production (they said they would) they'd have produced about 41.5 million total Wiis. Also assuming the 360 doesn't increase its sales this year over last year, the PS3 would only have to sell about 11 million more units to reach 25%.

Except you (Bodhesavta) conclude the 360 will sell about half as many units as the PS3 this year, which I think is extremely unlikely. The PS3 will outsell the 360, but not 11 million to 6 million in the next 10.5 months. That also assumes the 360 will sell significantly fewer this year than either 2007 or 2006.

Looking at the charts, the 360 is selling faster so far in 2008 than it was in 2007. 

I give TheBigFatJ a probability of at least 90% of winning his bet.

My track record with bets is 0-1 right now, and I didn't even come /close/ to winning that one. 

That's because you didn't do your analysis properly at that time, this time you did :)

I'm not sure how to call it, it'll be interesting though. I think we'll know inside 3 months who wins, it all rides on GTA IV doing very well on PS3 and possibly MGS 4 and some other major exclusives giving it a huge boost.
Its not impossible.

TheBigFatJ is prob gonna win because of Wii reaching 50% MS soon but at least this is better than usual bets (easily know who's gonna win)