| Bodhesatva said: PS3: 21 million Seems like a much more likely scenario. To me, at least. |
This is pretty close to the scenario 2 I outlined above. The Wii would have to slack on demand significantly, of course, as Nintendo's production is expected to be 1.8 million * 12 = 21.6 million units this year. If Nintendo doesn't increase production (they said they would) they'd have produced about 41.5 million total Wiis. Also assuming the 360 doesn't increase its sales this year over last year, the PS3 would only have to sell about 11 million more units to reach 25%.
Except you (Bodhesavta) conclude the 360 will sell about half as many units as the PS3 this year, which I think is extremely unlikely. The PS3 will outsell the 360, but not 11 million to 6 million in the next 10.5 months. That also assumes the 360 will sell significantly fewer this year than either 2007 or 2006.
Looking at the charts, the 360 is selling faster so far in 2008 than it was in 2007.
