Hear ye, Hear ye!  Me and TheBigFatJ have entered into a bet that before the end of the year (December 31, 2008) the PS3 will have 25% marketshare.  I believe it will, he believes it won't.  Just thought that I'd share that with everyone.  The wager is a one week ban.

 I think you will be banned ...

In order for the PS3 to hit 25% marketshare it will have to be close to passing the XBox 360 in total sales (because the Wii will be close to outselling both consoles combined); this means that the PS3 would have to outsell the XBox 360 by (roughly) 7 Million units in 2007.

Really doesnt matter anymore, deleted original post after a few calculations... 

Personally, I feel that the Wii will not achieve 50% marketshare, because the price drops at GTA time will spur sales to a higher plateau for the PS360 than before, with their total sales, eclipsing the wii

At the time of this post, installed bases for the three consoles follow (rounded slightly):

Wii: 21.5 million

360: 17 million

PS3: 10 million

To give everyone an idea of the realistic numbers that would have to occur.

Senario 1: PS3 needs to sell 14.5 million units in 10.5 months.

Assuming the Wii reaches and maintains about 50% market share in 2008:

- The PS3 would have to match the installed base of the Xbox 360 to get 25%.
- If the 360 sells 7.5 million again units again, it will be at ~24.5 million units installed.
- The PS3 would have to match that, selling ~14.5 million units this year, averaging more than a million units per month

Senario 2: PS3 needs to sell 10.5 million units in 10.5 months

If the unthinkable happens and Wii sales slow significantly, keeping the Wii around 45% market share for 2008, the following could happen:

- The PS3 could reach 25% market share while the 360 has 30%. This means they'd have to have an installed ratio of 5:6.
- If the 360 sells 7.5 million units again, it will be at 24.5 million units installed
- The PS3 would have to be at 20.5 million units to reach 25% vs the 360's 30%. This is only 10 million units for the rest of the year -- just about a million per month.

Of course, there are infinite scenarios. The wildcard here that I've overlooked is Xbox 360 sales: if the 360 sells more than 7.5 million units this year, it will be significantly harder for the PS3 to reach 25%. I believe scenario 2 to be the most conservative case for my position: even if the 360 and Wii both do poorly, the PS3 still needs phenominal sales to reach 25%.

do my sig predictions agree with you? 

Edit: Just about. 

Gonna be very close. Good bet, I can see either winning.

Personally, I really don't care if I lose or win, I just have a gambling habit

Just barely -- you have the PS3 at 25.3% marketshare. Your total assumes:

1) The PS3 will sell 14 million consoles this year. It sold 7-8 million last year.

2) The PS3 sells nearly 6 million more consoles this year than the 360 does. It sold less consoles than the 360 last year.

I think we can agree those are very generous totals, but your Wii total is also fairly optimistic too. I think the most likely scenario where BigFatJ loses is the one Munkeh describes -- where Wii sells a bit less than many expect and PS3 sells a bit more. Something like this:

PS3: 21 million
360: 23 million
Wii: 40 million

Seems like a much more likely scenario. To me, at least.

DMeisterJ said: Personally, I really don't care if I lose or win, I just have a gambling habit

 It's a very good bet, DMeister. Usually, these ban bets are ROFL-its-obvious-whos-gonna-lose, but yours isn't. I'd say you're less likely to win (perhaps 60/40 in favor of BigFatJ?) but it's close and reasonable.