At the time of this post, installed bases for the three consoles follow (rounded slightly):
Wii: 21.5 million
360: 17 million
PS3: 10 million
To give everyone an idea of the realistic numbers that would have to occur.
Senario 1: PS3 needs to sell 14.5 million units in 10.5 months.
Assuming the Wii reaches and maintains about 50% market share in 2008:
- The PS3 would have to match the installed base of the Xbox 360 to get 25%.
- If the 360 sells 7.5 million again units again, it will be at ~24.5 million units installed.
- The PS3 would have to match that, selling ~14.5 million units this year, averaging more than a million units per month
Senario 2: PS3 needs to sell 10.5 million units in 10.5 months
If the unthinkable happens and Wii sales slow significantly, keeping the Wii around 45% market share for 2008, the following could happen:
- The PS3 could reach 25% market share while the 360 has 30%. This means they'd have to have an installed ratio of 5:6.
- If the 360 sells 7.5 million units again, it will be at 24.5 million units installed
- The PS3 would have to be at 20.5 million units to reach 25% vs the 360's 30%. This is only 10 million units for the rest of the year -- just about a million per month.
Of course, there are infinite scenarios. The wildcard here that I've overlooked is Xbox 360 sales: if the 360 sells more than 7.5 million units this year, it will be significantly harder for the PS3 to reach 25%. I believe scenario 2 to be the most conservative case for my position: even if the 360 and Wii both do poorly, the PS3 still needs phenominal sales to reach 25%.
