pezus said:
Dude. WiiU launched that week last year in Japan... |
^This. Half of those sales were because of the launch week in Japan. 250k is a generous estimate for WiiU.
Sigs are dumb. And so are you!
Fusioncode said:
^This. Half of those sales were because of the launch week in Japan. 250k is a generous estimate for WiiU. |
I guess I was wrong by looking at last year number since I din't account for the Japan launch.
But still Historically Nintendo best month is December about 2.5x the numbers in November.
In the month of December most of the sales are completed before Xmas.
November 2013 WiiU's sold is 530K. December estimate is then 1,325,000 (530K * 2.5).
1,325,000 / 4 weeks = 331250. But i'm assuming that the first week is the best week so maybe my estimate for next week will then be 350-400K.
Xbox One 450,000
PS4 450,000
Wii U 200,000
| yvanjean said:
I guess I was wrong by looking at last year number since I din't account for the Japan launch. But still Historically Nintendo best month is December about 2.5x the numbers in November. In the month of December most of the sales are completed before Xmas. November 2013 WiiU's sold is 530K. December estimate is then 1,325,000 (530K * 2.5). 1,325,000 / 4 weeks = 331250. But i'm assuming that the first week is the best week so maybe my estimate for next week will then be 350-400K. |
Where are you getting this idea that the first week of December is the best week? Usually sales grow through the month peaking right before Christmas (depends where the tracking week falls each year). Also that week you posted from last year was two weeks after Black Friday. The week prior to that (the one following BF) saw drops for every system.
Even to hit the reduced number of 400k would require a 46% boost. The only system that got that last year was the WiiU since it launched in Japan, and of course it was two weeks after BF rather than the week after.
we're gonna see how much and how fast they can ship now, so basicly what is sold should be what is manufactured in a week
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yvanjean said:
But still Historically Nintendo best month is December about 2.5x the numbers in November. In the month of December most of the sales are completed before Xmas. November 2013 WiiU's sold is 530K. December estimate is then 1,325,000 (530K * 2.5). 1,325,000 / 4 weeks = 331250. But i'm assuming that the first week is the best week so maybe my estimate for next week will then be 350-400K.
|
It will not have average weekly sales over 330k, you need to take off about 100-80 at least. The Wii U sells the vast majority of consoles in NA now, last week, Europe moved 1/5 as many units as NA and Japan about 25% below that again. With that in mind and the traditional steep drop from BF week into December in NA, there is no cause in the world to think that the Wii U will be able to manage averages well above BF week.
350-400k was my guess scenario for BF week since October (and was off by some measure), there is no concieveable way that it will do this in the first week of December. It will be a lot closer to half of 400k than the actual 400k. If I had to guess, I'd say next week should see sales of 200k-ish, slightly below or slightly above. Low baseline with large percentage-wise spike on BF week = larger percentage-wise drop towards original baseline after BF week, especially with NA numbers being as important as they currently are for the global total (European numbers were about 40% of the PS3 last week, not amazing if I'm honest).
So you really think next week there will be supply's problem ??
yes
"I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007
Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions
Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.
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