Certainly an interesting question, but people shouldn't underestimate the big franchises.
Without them it would be very clear that 10m is out of reach.

Nobody else believes Nintendo will release a version without the Gamepad next year I see.

Nice skewed poll.  How about a check box for yes!

Theres a few things Nintendo really needs to do if it wants to start picking up massive sales like the Wii and 3DS.

1. Mario Kart and Smash Bros bundles at launch. The Mario and Zelda bundles have quietly been doing extremely well and I think cool limited edition Kart and Smash consoles would sell out fast.

2. NFC figures for Smash Bros. The Pokemon rumble ones sold out within days and are really expensive still on ebay. Kids love these things along with Skylanders and the Infinity ones. Do them so you get a Dr. Mario figure or a Dark Samus one and you get alternate costumes or something.

3. This is the Biggest one to me, more than console specs or anything else. PUMP OUT MORE GAMES FASTER. I know it seems obvious but this is the single reason why PS4/X1 are killing Nintendo right now. Even though alot of games were bad, 360/PS3 had so much new stuff all the time that it got people away from Nintendo. It's the same reason why the 3DS is thrashing the Vita right now. VGX would be the perfect time to announce something big.

4. DO NOT skip the BIG press conference at E3 this year. Other than the lack of games, this was the worst choice that Nintendo has made in years. Nintendo Direct is great but unless you have a 3DS or Wii U already, you probably wont see it. On top of that it made Nintendo look small and weak by not putting on an over the top press conference with the other 2, which was even dumber because they had alot of good big time announcments to make. Nintendo is fighting a perception of being console #3 right now, so why they decided to help that perception out, I have no idea.

5. Miyamoto's new IP......better be freaking amazing. I love Miyamoto and his games but he needs to make something with some serious main stream appeal. Maybe his vision of what an FPS should be. Maybe a crazy big RPG. All I know is that if it is some Niche title like Pikmin, then it won't move the needle whatsoever.

6. Sell the Wii U with a Pro Controller and no tablet for $199. Just do it. Almost all of the games will work anyways and they just made the 2DS so obviously a budget console is'nt beyond them. I love the tablet but a $199 console with a regular controller would have appeal to a whole ton of people, and you can just sell the tablet separately with new colors and zelda/mario stuff on them and they will sell anyways.

That would be the one and only way I'd ever purchase one.  I'm hoping.

It will sell 6M+ in 2014 so LT will be roughly 12M

if they do this then they would probably have to start selling the gamepads seperatly, something i dont think they want to do.

Price + Power + Massive Third Party Support.  If PS3 had been as powerful as it was and had launched at $350 Wii wouldn't have got off the ground.  Notice the cheaper PS3 became the less Wii sold.

What?! Just no ..... you can't be serious. You think the Wii audience would have bought a PS3 instead? It didn't offer them what they wanted remotely. Wii could have been $400 and it'd still sold gangbusters.

No, but the PS2 audience would have.  The only reason Wii was able to get off the ground was its price versus the other consoles and not some mythic property inherent in games like Wii Sports or Wii Play that only sold as well as they did because they were bundled with the system, a controller, or dirt cheap.