Not the slightest chance in hell PS3 or 360 will reach 100m.

The Wii has an outside chance, assuming it continues this pace for quite a few more years.

Many PS3 fanboys are seeing the future through rose colored glasses.

Sales decrease after year 3, however, even if they drastically increased, the PS3 would still need to stay on the market for another 8 years. 10m plus selling years aren't gonna last till the very end of its lifecycle, as sales will drop drastically whenever the 360 decides to launch the 720 or whatever it'll be called.

I think the absolute best case scenerio for the PS3 right now, is to start selling huge by the end of 08, and not stop till it reaches the end of its lifecycle, then and only then will it reach the 80,000,000 mark. I'm guessing the best case scenerio won't happen.

...and for the record, naming off 2008 games as a reason the PS3 will sell 100,000,000 units is the biggest pile of fanboy bullshit I've ever heard.

@ ZenfoldorVGI

The core Amiga technology hit the market in 1985. The platform's gaming sales heydays were with the cheaper slimmer Amiga 500 (1987) which saw its highs in sales around 1989-1991, so years after introduced, a period when Amiga games really set themselves apart from Atari ST games (the Amiga suffered from weak early ST to Amiga ports, later on par [held back by ST technology] and then far more advanced)

The c64 was introduced in 1982, its sales heydays was around 1987/1988.

PS1, PS2 saw huge sales later in their lifecycle as well.

PS2 vs 360 vs PS3 sales chart (Note the PS2 is alive and kicking while the XBox has been left unsupported for over two years pushing XBox fans to upgrade towards the 360 to play sequels to popular XBox games like Halo, PGR, Forza Motorsport, Splinter Cell, etc.)

no except if PS3s breaks after a couple years..... XB not a chance and like said they'll release another one before.... PS3 maybe if they really go for 8 or 10 years with it... which I doubt... in 10 years it will be totally obsolete for gaming...especially facing computers and if the other 2 release another console...

I don't who said the reason PS2 hit the 100 million is many good games... I don't agree... PS1 and 2 might be the 2 console with the lower percentage of good games.... i'd go more for the quantity factor than the quality but that's my point of view... and IMO the real reason is just that out of 120 million you have at least 30 it's there second PS2... I don't know any PS2 owners that have their first one still working... and a lot of kids in family with 2 kids bought a third one when the big brother moved out for college or else... hell even all the foreign student I know in all over USA first thing they did is buy a new PS2 with winning eleven.... my guess is the success of PS2 is a lot due to 2 or more purchase for a good part of the consumers...
some even for the compact design... we can see the same phenomenon with Ipods how many people bought a first generation and bought other smaller models after.... it's not unusual on the electronic market.... especial with product being produced for that much time....

I don't see it happening on this gen... but we'll see that's another question we could answer more clearly by the end of the year or even mid 2009

MikeB said: @ ZenfoldorVGI Sales decrease after year 3, however, even if they drastically increased, the PS3 would still need to stay on the market for another 8 years. The core Amiga technology hit the market in 1985. The platform's gaming sales heydays were with the cheaper slimmer Amiga 500 which saw its highs in sales around 1989-1991, so years after introduced, a period when Amiga games really set themselves apart from Atari ST games (the Amiga suffered from weak early ST to Amiga ports, later on par [held back by ST technology] and then far more advanced) The c64 was introduced in 1982, its sales heydays was around 1987/1988. PS1, PS2 saw huge sales later in their lifecycle as well. PS2 vs 360 vs PS3 sales chart (Note the PS2 is alive and kicking while the XBox has been left unsupported for over two years pushing XBox fans to upgrade towards the 360 to play sequels to popular XBox games like Halo, PGR, Forza Motorsport, Splinter Cell, etc.)

 PS1 and 2 were market leaders, if anything its Wii that will see continued high sales

@ Avinash_Tyagi

Nintendo and Sega were the market leaders when the Playstation launched.

Nintendo platforms traditionally show relatively high early adoption ratios (they discontinue their consoles while introducing a new platform at mass market entry pricing and release content appealing to the former userbase fairly quickly like Mario and Zelda games), be sure that many GameCube users bought a Wii to play the latest Mario, Zelda and Metroid games. The Wii is doing great, especially by expanding their market next to making Nintendo fans upgrade towards the Wii.

I think things will get more difficult later on as more people are becoming more interested in high definition content and technologically more advanced games and by the end of this year the bulk of Nintendo fans will own a Wii already. The Wii is a platform which has almost no overlap with the PS3, if you look at the top 20 best selling PS3 and Wii games there's no overlap there apart from Guitar Hero 3! Thus it's not weird to imagine many Wii users will also own higher specced platforms eventually.

MikeB said: @ Avinash_Tyagi PS1 and 2 were market leaders, if anything its Wii that will see continued high sales Nintendo and Sega were the market leaders when the Playstation launched. Nintendo platforms traditionally show relatively high early adoption ratios (they discontinue their consoles while introducing a new platform at mass market entry pricing and release content appealing to the former userbase fairly quickly like Mario and Zelda games), be sure that many GameCube users bought a Wii to play the latest Mario, Zelda and Metroid games. The Wii is doing great, especially by expanding their market next to making Nintendo fans upgrade towards the Wii. I think things will get more difficult later on as more people are becoming more interested in high definition content and technologically more advanced games and by the end of this year the bulk of Nintendo fans will own a Wii already. The Wii is a platform which has almost no overlap with the PS3, if you look at the top 20 best selling PS3 and Wii games there's no overlap there apart from Guitar Hero 3! Thus it's not weird to imagine many Wii users will also own higher specced platforms eventually.

 Wow, that was like listening to every Sony fan on this site rolled into one post

 

First off the fact that Sony knocked off nintendo proves how easy it is for a market leader to fall, like Sony with the PS3, secondly its not just GCN owners buying the Wii, its also nontraditional gamers and those non hardcore who owned a PS2 last gen PS3 and 360 however are restricted to the hardcore pool by and large, last gen those pools only netted less than 25 million for the Xbox and GCN, they will be unlikely to do that much more for the PS3 and 360 this gen, thirdly HD adoption is slow and is likely to reamain limited this generation as we have seen in survey after survey even HDTV owners have little interest in Blu-ray or HD service, not to metnion many hae their Wii's hooked up to HDTV's and still enjoy the picture quality.  As such you hoped for sales increases are very unlikely.

If they give them away in boxes of Corn Flakes then yes they will, otherwise hahahahahahaha

@ Avinash_Tyagi

IMO the problem was Nintendo wasn't focussing enough on (and appealing to) mature gamers. The N64 took off much faster than the PS1 did though, IMO the real showcase and high profile title for the platform was Mario64, a launch title. I bought a N64 at launch (although I have far more fond memories of Amiga gaming the years before the Snes launched in Europe, I did love Super Mario World on the Snes, thus made me keep an eye out for Mario64), but lost interest eventually due to its games library from the big perspective.

IMO the GameCube looked 100% like a child orientated console. Much more so than the Snes, N64 and Wii.

360 nah................
PS3 hmmm............... possible.....

The thing is, the PS3 started the generation with a relatively negative public image. I believe that public image of a console is a huge factor in determining its sales.

When something is perceived to be undesirable from the get go, it's extremely hard for the public to change their minds on a whim. It'll take years for that to happen.

No matter how good the games are out for a system, people still won't buy it due to the system's negative image. This is probably why the N64 was outsold 3:1 by the first PS (The insistence on using carts makes them look bad in the eyes of both developers and consumers).

When I really want to play Blu-ray films, I'd buy a Blu-ray player. There are probably many other players to choose from. It's not like the PS3 has no competition in that area.

Finally, having a large surround system may be everyone's dream, and more and more people are buying it. However, does the majority of the population really need it? I'm sure most are just satisfied with the basics, and aren't overly materialistic to seek the best of the best in the home entertainment area.