MikeB said: @ Avinash_Tyagi First off the fact that Sony knocked off nintendo proves how easy it is for a market leader to fall IMO the problem was Nintendo wasn't focussing enough on (and appealing to) mature gamers. The N64 took off much faster than the PS1 did though, IMO the real showcase and high profile title for the platform was Mario64, a launch title. I bought a N64 at launch (although I have far more fond memories of Amiga gaming the years before the Snes launched in Europe, I did love Super Mario World on the Snes, thus made me keep an eye out for Mario64), but lost interest eventually due to its games library from the big perspective. IMO the GameCube looked 100% like a child orientated console. Much more so than the Snes, N64 and Wii.

Which (in my opinion) is one of several groups Sony and Microsoft have ignored in this generation ...

A lot of people like to bring up that the average age of gamers is now in the 30's but they don't actually consider what this means; this means that the average gamer has seen the evolution in graphics from Pong to the PS2 and (probably) thinks that the Wii's graphics are "Pretty Good", has children and a wife (or at least is in a serious relationship) and (probably) realizes that he can play more videogames if his chidren and wife (or Significant Other) can play with him, and has countless drains on his income means that he is reluctant to buy a system that is (much) more than $200.

Basically, what this all means is that I would expect PS3/XBox 360 userbase to be heavily supported by 13 to (about) 25 year old Males and Nintendo is taking everyone else because Sony and Microsoft have ignored younger and female gamers.

I don't think either of them will come close, 80M tops.

I do think however the Wii will.

i would be mildly surprised to see ps3 and 360 COMBINED break 90 million...i would be shocked to see them combined break 100 million

tech doesn't matter...ps4 will have to launch within 6 years of ps3's debut...competition and market are more important than the tech inside


there are not 100 million gamers in the world...ps2 got casuals (plus people buying multiple due to dead ps2s) to get up to the 120mil+ number...it will not get those casuals this time as ps3 is a machine built for and marketed to hardcore gamers

360 - no (around 50m)
PS3 - no (around 55m)

MikeB said: Final-Fan said: MikeB said: (360 list excised for space reasons) PS3 IMO likely - PSX and PS2 both sold beyond 100 million units. - PS3 is being cost reduced fast. Sony has an excellent track record wtih regard to slimming down and cost reducing their consoles. - A lot of headroom for developers to make much more impressive games for years to come. - The amount of high profile exclusives is overwhelming, almost all high profile PS2 exclusives are known to see sequels on the PS3. In addition several successful new franchises have been introduced. - Blu-Ray is winning the high definition format war and the PS3 has the reputation of being the best upgradeable Blu-Ray movie player next to being far more multi-functional. (even DVR functionality and extensive PSP connectivity) - Home service looks very promising and pretty unique. - HDTV and 7.1 audio setup install base is growing rapidly. 1080p set have become increasingly popular. 1. The PSX and PS2 were both market leaders -- i.e. in "first place". The "second place" console got about 33 and 25 million respectively. 2. It's true that the PS3 is getting a lot of cost reductions and price reductions, and that there are surely more to come. However, you have to remember that the PS3 started with its price and cost SO HIGH that it has that much further to go before it gets to "mass market" pricing. It's STILL as expensive as the Premium was at launch, despite all the price cuts! 3. Just like any console. Why would this help the PS3 so much more? 4. All the consoles are getting great exclusives. PS3 may have more than 360 (I would like to see your numbers) but it's not some massive avalanche of awesome that will bury the other console. 5. Blu-ray is an asset but not as much so as you are making out. By the time Blu-ray really takes off in the mass market there will be standalone players much cheaper than PS3 with equal (Blu-ray) functionality. 6. Again, yes this is true but it will not help as much as it would have to to meet the goal you are setting. 7. By the time this stuff truly gets popular enough to make a huge difference the gen will be almost over. It may help the PS3 last a while into the next gen but won't magically give it a giant boost. Most people today don't really care about 5.1, why will they suddenly care about 7.1? Strangely, you actually DON'T mention what I think will be one of the PS3's strongest arguments for why sales will take off -- it's kind of a corollary to (2). The fact that even after the price drops it's still not close to mass market pricing means that when it finally DOES get down there sales just might skyrocket! Especially if that event happens to coincide with a giant exclusive nudge nudge wink wink say no more. For all of the above reasons I think the PS3 will be fighting to break 50 million by end of gen. Some would say that I am deluding myself to say even that number, so just give up the dream of 100 million, OK MikeB? --Regarding point 1, the original PSX started with far worse conditions, yet reached over 100 million in sales. --Regarding point 2, the PS3 is has globally outperformed the 360 despite a higher entry price and fewer timed exclusives, global PS3 sales are accelerating rapidly however, meanwhile 360 sales for Europe already slowed down compared to 2006 sales (based on EA report). Sony has already slimmed down their Blu-Ray technology and IBM slimmed down the Cell, advancements yet to be implemented into the PS3. --Regarding point 3, the short answer Cell and Blu-Ray, for the long answer hit the link within my profile. Basically the Cell is a radically new design requiring significant software adaptations, which takes time and effort. But the new design is worth it as the performance potential is orders of magnitude greater. --Regarding point 4, look at the games which best sold on the PS2. Most are PS3 exclusives, all are expected to come to the PS3. --Regarding point 5, Blu-Ray adoption is happening at a similar rate as DVD adoption. DVD becoming relevant didn't take too long. Blu-Ray movie sales are growing rapidly. --Regarding point 6, I think this will be an important distinguishing factor. Rivals can't follow due to lack of technology, like no default harddrive, much smaller OS flash memory, OS not being built with this functionality in mind. --Regarding point 7, according to a Nielsen study most PS3 users are connecting to 5.1 or greater audio setup already, about 1/4 have a 7.1 setup. HDTV sales are gowing through the roof, 1080p HDTV adoption is happening faster than expected.

A. Maybe that's because it wasn't coming off two generations of hugely successful consoles?
B. That does nothing to address point 2. Note that I have said nothing about PS3 not performing better than 360 (in point of fact I think it will do better) but rather question the assertion that 100m is even remotely possible.
C. The Cell may be the best thing EVAR but the games are not blowing the 360 away in terms of technical prowess. even if the PS3 starts to pull away from 360 in this regard it will be a slow process and nowhere NEAR big enough to catapult sales within shouting distance of 100m. Again you seem obsessed with showing that the PS3 will outperform the 360 which has nothing to do with whether it gets to 100 million.
D. And yet the PS3 is not selling like the PS2.
E. You do not refute my point.
F. OK, no one else can do Home until next gen. I never said otherwise and if you had asked me I would have agreed. But why will that be some huge monster hardware pusher? It will be a unique feature that the PS3 boasts and yes will probably boost hardware sales but, again, not as much as necessary for your goal to be met even in conjunction with your other points.
G. Your data is interesting but does not refute my point. I'd bet those numbers were even better earlier on because the PS3's early adopters were mostly technophiles. The ordinary gamer does not have 7.1 or really care that much about it and that will remain true until it is too late to really help the PS3. HDTV is better but still is not as compelling a reason to get PS3 over the other systems as you seem to think. Yeah it looks the best (and has Blu-ray) but looking the best (and having Blu-ray) isn't everything -- it just helps.

I'm not saying that the PS3 will fail or that it will not do well; in fact I think my expectations for the PS3 are among the more optimistic on this site but you need to face the fact that the PS3 is not going to be anywhere close to the other PlayStation lifetime sales figures and that it will be a miracle if it gets to 65 million.

PS3 FTW 100,000,000+!!

360 - no chance - not with less than 20 Million consoles after over two years and three holiday periods in market.

PS3 - very unlikely, but it retains a slim chance if it can get broad library of games and really drive its price down. It also depends whether it gains strong sales as BR player (I don't mean early adopter sales like now, I mean format war officially over and films only available in BR or DVD and the format picks up momentum)

the ps3 would need a major price cut for that to happen

This thread seems very familiar. LOL