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Forums - Sales Discussion - Who here thinks that the PS3 or 360 will reach 100 million sold ????

Final-Fan on 13 February 2008

^ And there's MikeB. Here we go again...



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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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supermariogalaxy on 13 February 2008

360- NEVER, it will reach 60m MAX...Only will it reach 60m is if MS keeps it for 4 MORE YEARS

PS3-NEVER, lol, 80m MAX...It will probable be under 80m though..

Wii-YES!!!! Read sig...I said in a thread once...."...Wii will be 300-500m LTD"...Yes, I know...JL must be proud =-)



 

Wolf21 on 13 February 2008

Not me.. even the Ds is having a hard time trying to reach the 100 million mark... and it is the best selling videogame system.

so nah.. even the wii will need a lot of luck to reach that milestone



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Final-Fan on 13 February 2008
MikeB said:
360 IMO impossible
- Too many hardware issues (even if RRoD problems are reduced towards industry standards DVD problems will get worse in course of time due to wearing from having to spin so much at high speeds => bad reputation)
- the bulk of XBox users already upgraded
- hardware has been pushed near its peak potential
- Microsoft isn't really a popular brand anywhere outside of the US (a little more in Australia and UK than in other places) Provide people a good alternative and I think they the bulk of consumers will take the alternative instead.
- 360 is a non factor for Japan
- Microsoft seemingly putting no efforts into European localizations
- Lack of real high profile exclusives (most timed exclusives hit the PC as well), even a Halo 4 or Gears 2 wouldn't accomplish much as most Halo fans already upgraded, Gears 2 can be expected for at least the PC (probably better) and Resistance 2 and Killzone 2 will probably steal any thunder due to technical reasons.

PS3 IMO likely
- PSX and PS2 both sold beyond 100 million units.
- PS3 is being cost reduced fast. Sony has an excellent track record wtih regard to slimming down and cost reducing their consoles.
- A lot of headroom for developers to make much more impressive games for years to come.
- The amount of high profile exclusives is overwhelming, almost all high profile PS2 exclusives are known to see sequels on the PS3. In addition several successful new franchises have been introduced.
- Blu-Ray is winning the high definition format war and the PS3 has the reputation of being the best upgradeable Blu-Ray movie player next to being far more multi-functional. (even DVR functionality and extensive PSP connectivity)
- Home service looks very promising and pretty unique.
- HDTV and 7.1 audio setup install base is growing rapidly. 1080p set have become increasingly popular.
I think you're exaggerating the roadblocks the 360 faces by quite a bit, but we agree that the end result is "no chance at all the 360 will get to 100m" so we'll leave that alone unless you insist. 

On the PS3 side, however, I do have a few objections: 
1.  The PSX and PS2 were both market leaders -- i.e. in "first place".  The "second place" console got about 33 and 25 million respectively. 
2.  It's true that the PS3 is getting a lot of cost reductions and price reductions, and that there are surely more to come.  However, you have to remember that the PS3 started with its price and cost SO HIGH that it has that much further to go before it gets to "mass market" pricing.  It's STILL as expensive as the Premium was at launch, despite all the price cuts!
3.  Just like any console.  Why would this help the PS3 so much more?
4.  All the consoles are getting great exclusives.  PS3 may have more than 360 (I would like to see your numbers) but it's not some massive avalanche of awesome that will bury the other console. 
5.  Blu-ray is an asset but not as much so as you are making out.  By the time Blu-ray really takes off in the mass market there will be standalone players much cheaper than PS3 with equal (Blu-ray) functionality. 
6.  Again, yes this is true but it will not help as much as it would have to to meet the goal you are setting. 
7.  By the time this stuff truly gets popular enough to make a huge difference the gen will be almost over.  It may help the PS3 last a while into the next gen but won't magically give it a giant boost.  Most people today don't really care about 5.1, why will they suddenly care about 7.1? 

Strangely, you actually DON'T mention what I think will be one of the PS3's strongest arguments for why sales will take off -- it's kind of a corollary to (2).  The fact that even after the price drops it's still not close to mass market pricing means that when it finally DOES get down there sales just might skyrocket!  Especially if that event happens to coincide with a giant exclusive nudge nudge wink wink say no more. 

For all of the above reasons I think the PS3 will be fighting to break 50 million by end of gen.  Some would say that I am deluding myself to say even that number, so just give up the dream of 100 million, OK MikeB? 

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Road on 13 February 2008

Even combined feels like a slow probability. For PS3 and X360 to perform incredibly better than the "second" places of last gen they would need 40 million for each, and that would make 80 million.

100 million for them, even combined, only if the Wii train derails by some miracle.



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Bursche on 13 February 2008

No. The Wii might be able to crack it but I still doubt that.

How in the world you can be so delusioned to think that the PS3 or 360 will hit it is beyond me.



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elendar on 13 February 2008

The simple fact is Sony lost market share big time this generation while Nintendo & MS gained. The Wii may hit 100 million and if it does it will be alone in the club.



daactualfact on 13 February 2008

skip what cluelessguyever and crazzyman says, I KNOW DAACTUALFACT! (My sig says it all!)



Damn things have changed since 2009 began. Here are my new visions for the end of the generation.

 

Wii: 135 mil

Ps3: 85 mil

360: 60 mil

True Genius
MikeB on 14 February 2008
Final-Fan said:
MikeB said:
360 IMO impossible
- Too many hardware issues (even if RRoD problems are reduced towards industry standards DVD problems will get worse in course of time due to wearing from having to spin so much at high speeds => bad reputation)
- the bulk of XBox users already upgraded
- hardware has been pushed near its peak potential
- Microsoft isn't really a popular brand anywhere outside of the US (a little more in Australia and UK than in other places) Provide people a good alternative and I think they the bulk of consumers will take the alternative instead.
- 360 is a non factor for Japan
- Microsoft seemingly putting no efforts into European localizations
- Lack of real high profile exclusives (most timed exclusives hit the PC as well), even a Halo 4 or Gears 2 wouldn't accomplish much as most Halo fans already upgraded, Gears 2 can be expected for at least the PC (probably better) and Resistance 2 and Killzone 2 will probably steal any thunder due to technical reasons.

PS3 IMO likely
- PSX and PS2 both sold beyond 100 million units.
- PS3 is being cost reduced fast. Sony has an excellent track record wtih regard to slimming down and cost reducing their consoles.
- A lot of headroom for developers to make much more impressive games for years to come.
- The amount of high profile exclusives is overwhelming, almost all high profile PS2 exclusives are known to see sequels on the PS3. In addition several successful new franchises have been introduced.
- Blu-Ray is winning the high definition format war and the PS3 has the reputation of being the best upgradeable Blu-Ray movie player next to being far more multi-functional. (even DVR functionality and extensive PSP connectivity)
- Home service looks very promising and pretty unique.
- HDTV and 7.1 audio setup install base is growing rapidly. 1080p set have become increasingly popular.
I think you're exaggerating the roadblocks the 360 faces by quite a bit, but we agree that the end result is "no chance at all the 360 will get to 100m" so we'll leave that alone unless you insist.

On the PS3 side, however, I do have a few objections:
1. The PSX and PS2 were both market leaders -- i.e. in "first place". The "second place" console got about 33 and 25 million respectively.
2. It's true that the PS3 is getting a lot of cost reductions and price reductions, and that there are surely more to come. However, you have to remember that the PS3 started with its price and cost SO HIGH that it has that much further to go before it gets to "mass market" pricing. It's STILL as expensive as the Premium was at launch, despite all the price cuts!
3. Just like any console. Why would this help the PS3 so much more?
4. All the consoles are getting great exclusives. PS3 may have more than 360 (I would like to see your numbers) but it's not some massive avalanche of awesome that will bury the other console.
5. Blu-ray is an asset but not as much so as you are making out. By the time Blu-ray really takes off in the mass market there will be standalone players much cheaper than PS3 with equal (Blu-ray) functionality.
6. Again, yes this is true but it will not help as much as it would have to to meet the goal you are setting.
7. By the time this stuff truly gets popular enough to make a huge difference the gen will be almost over. It may help the PS3 last a while into the next gen but won't magically give it a giant boost. Most people today don't really care about 5.1, why will they suddenly care about 7.1?

Strangely, you actually DON'T mention what I think will be one of the PS3's strongest arguments for why sales will take off -- it's kind of a corollary to (2). The fact that even after the price drops it's still not close to mass market pricing means that when it finally DOES get down there sales just might skyrocket! Especially if that event happens to coincide with a giant exclusive nudge nudge wink wink say no more.

For all of the above reasons I think the PS3 will be fighting to break 50 million by end of gen. Some would say that I am deluding myself to say even that number, so just give up the dream of 100 million, OK MikeB?

Regarding point 1, the original PSX started with far worse conditions, yet reached over 100 million in sales.

Regarding point 2, the PS3 is has globally outperformed the 360 despite a higher entry price and fewer timed exclusives, global PS3 sales are accelerating rapidly however, meanwhile 360 sales for Europe already slowed down compared to 2006 sales (based on EA report). Sony has already slimmed down their Blu-Ray technology and IBM slimmed down the Cell, advancements yet to be implemented into the PS3.

Regarding point 3, the short answer Cell and Blu-Ray, for the long answer hit the link within my profile. Basically the Cell is a radically new design requiring significant software adaptations, which takes time and effort. But the new design is worth it as the performance potential is orders of magnitude greater.

Regarding point 4, look at the games which best sold on the PS2. Most are PS3 exclusives, all are expected to come to the PS3.

Regarding point 5, Blu-Ray adoption is happening at a similar rate as DVD adoption. DVD becoming relevant didn't take too long. Blu-Ray movie sales are growing rapidly.

Regarding point 6, I think this will be an important distinguishing factor. Rivals can't follow due to lack of technology, like no default harddrive, much smaller OS flash memory, OS not being built with this functionality in mind.

Regarding point 7, according to a Nielsen study most PS3 users are connecting to 5.1 or greater audio setup already, about 1/4 have a 7.1 setup. HDTV sales are gowing through the roof, 1080p HDTV adoption is happening faster than expected. 

 



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PS3 vs 360 sales

Avinash_Tyagi on 14 February 2008

Only Wii can break 100 million



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)