Final-Fan said:
On the PS3 side, however, I do have a few objections: 1. The PSX and PS2 were both market leaders -- i.e. in "first place". The "second place" console got about 33 and 25 million respectively. 2. It's true that the PS3 is getting a lot of cost reductions and price reductions, and that there are surely more to come. However, you have to remember that the PS3 started with its price and cost SO HIGH that it has that much further to go before it gets to "mass market" pricing. It's STILL as expensive as the Premium was at launch, despite all the price cuts! 3. Just like any console. Why would this help the PS3 so much more? 4. All the consoles are getting great exclusives. PS3 may have more than 360 (I would like to see your numbers) but it's not some massive avalanche of awesome that will bury the other console. 5. Blu-ray is an asset but not as much so as you are making out. By the time Blu-ray really takes off in the mass market there will be standalone players much cheaper than PS3 with equal (Blu-ray) functionality. 6. Again, yes this is true but it will not help as much as it would have to to meet the goal you are setting. 7. By the time this stuff truly gets popular enough to make a huge difference the gen will be almost over. It may help the PS3 last a while into the next gen but won't magically give it a giant boost. Most people today don't really care about 5.1, why will they suddenly care about 7.1? Strangely, you actually DON'T mention what I think will be one of the PS3's strongest arguments for why sales will take off -- it's kind of a corollary to (2). The fact that even after the price drops it's still not close to mass market pricing means that when it finally DOES get down there sales just might skyrocket! Especially if that event happens to coincide with a giant exclusive nudge nudge wink wink say no more. For all of the above reasons I think the PS3 will be fighting to break 50 million by end of gen. Some would say that I am deluding myself to say even that number, so just give up the dream of 100 million, OK MikeB? |
Regarding point 1, the original PSX started with far worse conditions, yet reached over 100 million in sales.
Regarding point 2, the PS3 is has globally outperformed the 360 despite a higher entry price and fewer timed exclusives, global PS3 sales are accelerating rapidly however, meanwhile 360 sales for Europe already slowed down compared to 2006 sales (based on EA report). Sony has already slimmed down their Blu-Ray technology and IBM slimmed down the Cell, advancements yet to be implemented into the PS3.
Regarding point 3, the short answer Cell and Blu-Ray, for the long answer hit the link within my profile. Basically the Cell is a radically new design requiring significant software adaptations, which takes time and effort. But the new design is worth it as the performance potential is orders of magnitude greater.
Regarding point 4, look at the games which best sold on the PS2. Most are PS3 exclusives, all are expected to come to the PS3.
Regarding point 5, Blu-Ray adoption is happening at a similar rate as DVD adoption. DVD becoming relevant didn't take too long. Blu-Ray movie sales are growing rapidly.
Regarding point 6, I think this will be an important distinguishing factor. Rivals can't follow due to lack of technology, like no default harddrive, much smaller OS flash memory, OS not being built with this functionality in mind.
Regarding point 7, according to a Nielsen study most PS3 users are connecting to 5.1 or greater audio setup already, about 1/4 have a 7.1 setup. HDTV sales are gowing through the roof, 1080p HDTV adoption is happening faster than expected.
