There's not really any incentive for Call of Duty players (for example) to switch to the Wii U though, so that was the problem there. 

I think Nintendo drank the Kool-Aid that if they had multiplats they could grab some of that Sony/MS demo, but that notion was about 2-3 years too late by 2012. 

They should have instead invested in some Western development studios to help them out (or at least financed some without buying a stake, ala Platinum Games and Next Level Games). I think they need to acknowledge now that basically third parties aren't going to help them, and even when they can no third party can afford to stick their neck out for Nintendo any more unless its for the 3DS in Japan. 

Think we will know by January, second Xmas on the market for Wii U, now is sink or swim time.

Any money nintendo spends on projectd that are not their own is wasted money, peopoe just wont buy it in meaningful enough numbers.

Unless it has nintendo on the box and one of their core franchise characters slapped in, in some way or another, you'll at best tempt a few of the less dedicated fanbase, bored with waiting on their holy grain, to bite.

You may be right. Though some of that may fostered by Nintendo's own impatience. If something isn't a huge hit right away or just a moderate one, they tend to back away. 

Uncharted on the Playstation wasn't a huge hit initially, but over the years you can see how its grown into a brand and how that's also rubbed off a new franchise like Last of Us. 

It's kinda the blessing and curse of having Mario. If you greenlit any game with Mario in it, it's pretty much gaurunteed to make a profit. Even things like Mario Tennis 3DS clear 400-500k worldwide easy, and you gotta figure the development cost on these games isn't that high either, Nintendo's probably printing a nice amount of $$$ every time they slap Mario on the box. 

But its hindered them in that they've become gun shy in trying new ideas and when they do, they don't bother to market them. 

Too early. We'll know after Christmas.

Not really irrelevant when Nintendo has two platforms, and combined they have sold over 40,000,000.

If Wii U can't crack 300k for November 2013 NPD, I'd say the writing is pretty much on the wall. That would mean that its selling at about a Dreamcast rate (maybe even slightly worse) even with NSMBU + Mario 3D World + Wii Fit U + Wii Party U and by now a decent supporting library.

It sold somewhere between 50-60k in October, and generally speaking consoles/handhelds have a multiplier of 2x-3x more sales in November over October (this is true of Wii, DS, and many other platforms). 

Even if we give the Wii U several benefits of the doubt here ... lets say it sold 59k for October (the higher end of the range given by creamsugar at NeoGaf), and lets say it has a whopping 5x multiplier in sales from October to November, much higher than the normal 2-3x increase most platforms get... that still only takes you to 295,000 systems sold for November. 

295k is not good. The GameCube sold 468k its second November and that wasn't anything to crow about back then. 

Didn't you get the memo? Apparently Nintendo will sell millions this Christmas rofl. Back to reality, Nintendo have been pushed out of the living room as they cashed in and sold out with the Wii, a one trick pony and failed to wisely invest the earnings.

That's a cold way to put it, but it's probably true. Nintendo really screwed up, with all the momenteum they had with the Wii they really could have taken their brand into prestigious new directions and expanded into areas like making a Facebook/Twitter like service with all the casuals they had eating out of the palm of their hand 4-5 years ago. 

They squandered all that and now that door is basically closed shut by a combination of Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Sony. 

Nintendo really was the darling of the 20-something crowd just a few years ago, but they failed to take that momenteum anywhere and instead of expanding out and creating a proper successor for the Wii with social networking features while the iron was hot, they chose to basically ride the Wii into the ground and instead of finding the next "Wii Sports" they focused on making Wii Sports 2 (Resort) and Wii Fit 2. 

Yeah. Not a lot of hope really, but I'll reserve judgement until Jan.