Why take his words seriously? This man lost credibility years ago.

Thats bullshit. Subtract third party sales from Nintendos previous generation before they lost them (SNES vs N64 or even GC) and you have the truer number to what Nintendo would get if they had proper third party added to their ranks. Essentially they will sell half or a little more than half of what they could've gained (roughly 35 to 40 million more than they currently have as a prime first party.). Its always been up to Nintendo because they put themselves in that position. You can act like its a position they don't deserve, but it truly is. There are a lot of gamers who demand third parties. Microsoft knows this very well.

Still generous. GC numbers, at this peace, is the best Wii U can hope.

i remember him saying vita will steal 3ds spotlight... and where is vita now?

how does he think the nintendo fans who criticize him didn't buy the wii u? i would say many of them bought the wii u but not those people who aren't in internet forums and don't criticize him.

Here is the article.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/pachter-vita-will-rob-nintendo-market-share/03008

I love how you amateurs and keyboard warriors reject a guy who is ten times more successful and gets paid six figures for what you do on your spare time.

If he lost credibility "years ago" how come he's still a paid analyst? I've watched a few of his shows and he is definitely not some hack seer with no insight into the industry what so ever. His Wii U projections are based on current data which is extremely plausible.

No one can perfectly predict the future, the Wii U could very well turn things around but so far there is not a single thing to suggest it will.

Casuals aren't buying it because of poor marketing, lack of novelty, necessity (they have a Wii, why should they buy a Wii U)
Core consumers like myself aren't buying it because it haz no gaemz, weak graphics, and the controller is uncomfortable and awkward to use.

The Wii U is an abject failure, and that's the bottom line as of the present. .

I think he's low balling the Wii U but he's not *that* far off either. My guess would be about 30 million or slightly less than that.

The GameCube sold about 460k in November 2002 (it's second holiday season), I think the Wii U is probably in tough to match that even with Mario 3D World.

Mario/Zelda/Smash etc. only really get you 25 million-ish consumers, the Wii was successful because Wii Sports and motion gaming brought in many new gamers. People like Mario sure, plenty more than 25 million, the issue is when you start to ask people to buy an entirely seperate console just to get those Nintendo games, for a lot of people that becomes a pass. 

Even with something like Super Mario 64, lets not forget, the majority of gamers that gen were content not owning a N64 at all and going with Playstation and maybe having something like Crash Bandicoot instead because the Playstation was a more wide appealling console especially to game enthusiasts. 

A lot of people like Nintendo but they're not *married* to Nintendo the way Nintendo fanatics are, you really need to give them a compelling reason outside of the just the same Nintendo staple franchises to buy a Nintendo console, because they're pretty much already going to get a PS4 or XB1 already to get the wider variety of games that they want (simply put Nintendo is only one developer, a lot of the third party community is absent on Nintendo platforms). 

3rd parties from back then are very different from the third parties of today that are all about the West's pursuit of cinematic experiences and that just jives more with Sony and MS' output.

 And when I look at the software sales of SNES to GC/N64/Wii, I see mostly Nintendo dominating the lists with third party games here and there, not so different from back then, except Western style games are now the core of the industry.

They've made alot of mistakes, like losing Final Fantasy, but I, for one, don't see it as a bad thing that they haven't largely changed their software philosophy to suit Western ideals so they can pull in third parties because by now I think it's obvious hardware power isn't what's stopping them from getting the same support as MS and Sony.

Like I've said many times before, what they need to focus on is putting out first party games, collaborating with third parties for exclusives like Bayonetta/ SMT x FE/Lego City, keep making their platforms attractive for indies, market their products well and get whatever third party multiplats they can.

The only difference between third parties then and now is that the lot of them were not under Nintendos thumb because of lack of competition giving them a way out. Today they can choose who they work with based on demand, console power, etc. There are many more factors these days.