I'm not real worried about US sales being in line with Nintendo's expectations. It's really Europe that is the wild card. Wii U has to do well in Europe this holiday, otherwise Nintendo will not meet their targets.

Mario and to a lesser extent Zelda are the Wii U system sellers, then you look at the solid library that Wii U has accumulated over time. This is what will help sway a persons decision to purchase, heck even having games like the latest Batman, Assassins Creed and COD will make things more appealing.Then you have the party / fit games that seem to do well over the festive period. Nintendo wont hit their target, but i see it hitting around 7.5m.

Your correct about Europe, hopefully they will have solid sales there. Im also hoping Japan improves, with no PS4 this holiday in Japan Nintendo really need to take advantage. As far as US goes, like you i have no worries, in fact i think Wii U is going to have storming black friday sales. Is Mario released near or on Black friday??

Nintendo's estimates are ridiculous they are like 9 million for the FISCAL YEAR, not just total LTD, meaning their expectation is to sell 9 million from March 2013 to March 2014 alone. There's no chance in hell they are even coming close to that.

I have no grounds for it, but I'm pretty certain Wii U is going to enjoy a surprisingly good end of the year.

I still think Mario's release date is genius to pick up on panicking parents who can't find PS4s and XBONES for christmas.

$200 32 gb with game price point and they would have one from me. So prob not the next few weeks, maybe sometime late next year. Its abit crowded with the high powered next gen consoles, wiiu i think will be a fading memory. Its ok, gamecube was just like it and it was fun.

If the Wii U makes an incredible turn around and starts garnering some interest immediately then I still don't think it can happen. I think the limiting factor for the Wii U (in it's best case scenario) would be the retailers. Last year Nintendo shipped 3.06mil and after the holidays those units sat around and took a while to move the stock off shelves (and in Europe they even needed to take some stock back). This is lost money for retailers and they will want to prevent that from happening again so I think they will be conservative with the Wii U orders. The reason retailers don't like stock sitting on shelves is because they only have a limited amount of space. Each section is valuable to them and they would like things that sell in the spots. I think the retailers will give the front and center spots for the Ps4 and X1 this season.

I see where ur coming but again ill use 3DS as a reference.

3DS released in Feb/March 2011 and shipped 3.61m by March 31. According to Vgchartz it didnt reach those sales until the week ending Aug 13 which coincided with an $80 price reduction. So it took nearly 5 months and a 1/3 price cut to sell thru the initial launch shipments. Despite this retailers let Nintendo ship an additional 8.36m units from Oct-Dec.

Wii U released in Nov/Dec 2012 and shipped 3.06m by Dec 31. According to Vgchartz it didnt reach those sales until the week ending May 18. So it took a little over 5 months to sell thru ints initial launch shipments. In late Sept Wii U recieved a $50 price cut on the deluxe bundle and according to NPD sales for the month tripled with the price cut only being in affect for half the month and it appears Europe has had a similar spike in sales. So why wouldnt retailers let Nintendo ship an additional 4m from Oct-Dec?

Edit: also according to NPD in Aug 2011 sales of 3DS tripled from the previous month so the price cut has had a similar effect on both consoles in the US.