The wii u is selling like a 20 -30 million console so i think 6-9 million is a decent estimate.

half of 3Dland

Super Mario 3D World is the most accessible and appealing 3D Mario to date for many, many consumers. The ability to have a locked camera, multiplayer, a female lead character and the simple and straightforward powerup/damage system of classic Mario make this game a cross between 2D and 3D Mario. I think there is a good chance it will sell to both audiences. We've seen hints of this with the very well-selling Mario 3D Land. I think they may have hit game design jackpot with this title, especially with some of the more vocal core Mario fan/critics being appeased by the latest trailer.

Assuming Wii U sells respectably, I see 3 million this Christmas and beyond 12 million lifetime. If Wii U completely bombs it will do much worse, obviously.

5 million

If Wii U keep going like that, it won't sell more than 6 million. If Wii U is 50 million lifetime, maybe 7 or 8 million.

The WiiU should bet everything in two niches: the kiddy friendlly classic games and the hardcore, balls to the walls, horror games. If the system had 3 good horror games, i would buy it.

Nintendo made a big mistake in GameCube or Wii period. If they had better thechonology at this time (for 50 or 100 $/€ per WII for construction and also buying), they would had take all the market of video games. I don't understand. Mario,  Zelda, StarFox, DK, Pikmin, Metroid, Kirby, Fire Emblem fans and all off those who are Sony or Microsoft fans. Nintendo would have been the king of video games. That's not :( This differenciation on the products doesn't mean anything. That's just ridiculous. A company can offer many different products.

Depends on the legs obviously, NSMB hasn't had good ones so far has it? I mean the most it'll get this holiday is 4m and that's with a 50% attach ratio, unlikely. Probably 2.5m maybe 3m end of the holiday.

Is it really gonna sell another 5m on top of that?

Yes, but Mario 3d world is a better game, isn´t?  If it half the game that Mario 3d land is, it is probably really good. 

At least 7m without being bundled.

I think that 3D Land impressed people with this new style of game design for Mario and I believe that the multiplayer aspect will be a pretty decent selling point for 3D World.

Plus, it just looks incredibly fun.