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Forums - Sales Discussion - Why do u believe PS4/One will outsell Wii U by March 31?

Aerys said:
zorg1000 said:
Ji99saw said:
History my dear Watson... History, ps1 and ps2 kicking Nintendo's ass is what I use to back my argument anything else is invalid


I think PS4 will for sure outsell Wii U in lifetime sales but by Mar 31 is rediculous and alot of people are claiming it will. What makes u think Wii U will only sell about 1 million units this holiday?


Lol i dont think wii U will sell 1 million, it will sell less.

 

But it cant outsell WiiU by march because PS4 will only be released on february in Japan, in september, PS4 will be the leader


why dont u think Wii U can sell 1 million over the holidays? Vita did like 1.7m last year and Gamecube shipped 1.3-3.5m every holiday from 2001-2005.



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I googled it and every article I have found says that Sony is aiming to 5 million PS4 sales and not 5 million units shipped.

Then i think Sony may ship 6 million units and sell around  5.5 million units and outsell the Wii U by March 31.



Because Sony insinuated that the PS4 already has a million pre-orders. That was a couple of weeks ago, and was said by an American, so they obviously only meant America! Which means, based on average ratios that I'm not willing to share, that the PS4 will have 8 million sales on week 1 alone!

I'm not satirizing anybody. This is an argument I've actually heard.



Love and tolerate.

I think you could be surprised. X360 was at 10 million by the end of 2006. It stayed first one year more.

Wii U is at 5 million, and potential good games are coming (Wind Waker HD, Super Mario 3D World, DK County : Tropical Freeze) with some casual games (Wii Fit U, Wii Party U) which will reach a few million each. It will help Wii U to sell better than past year.

So I think you're mistaken, let's wait a few months. Moreover, there is little chance than both next gen consoles can do this. According to me, the public will prefer one than the other, I don't know which one yet.


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Yoshi's the best of the beasts

Because the Wii U sells like a few hundred K per quarter, they're not even through their initial shipments.



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Shadow1980 said:
the_dengle said:

That is a very optimistic perspective for all three consoles. Glad to see somebody thinks they can all do well.

Well, there has been fairly rapid growth in console sales over the decades:

And that seventh-gen tally is likely going to get to around 290-300 million at this rate. While there are always limits to growth, there's no reason to think the eighth generation won't be even bigger than the seventh. The one biggest obstacle to growth will be Japan, which unlike the other major regions has not been buying home consoles at an accelerated rate. Here's how North America and Japan compare:

It's possible that handhelds cannibalized a good chunk of the sales of home consoles in Japan. The DS sold 33 million units there, while the PSP sold 19 million units. That's a total of 52 million handhelds vs. about 24 million home systems. Meanwhile, the GBA only sold 17 million units. However, handhelds do fill a different niche from home consoles, so its impossible to know how much if any sales of them cannibalize console sales. The DS was ridiculously popular in the U.S. & Canada as well, with 60 million units sold, and the PSP did decently as well with 17 million units sold, but those combined 77 million handhelds sold didn't prevent the seventh generation from being much bigger than the sixth in America. Whatever the cause is, there was a big decline in Japan. Will they rebound? Will they stay the same? Will they continue to shrink? The Wii U will of course not do anywhere near as well as the the Wii, and might get to around N64 levels at best in Japan, and the XBO will probably still struggle to get to the 2 million mark. That leaves the PS4 to be the dominant system there, but given the atypical nature of the Japanese market, there's no way of knowing for sure how well it will do. The PS3 is at around 9.5 million right now in Japan, and might add another 1 to 2 million to the LTD total by 2016. I think the PS4 will do a good bit better than that. There also might be less competition from handhelds this time (assuming they're even competition in the first place). While the 3DS has been selling like hotcakes, with over 12 million units sold in Japan, that's less than what the DS had sold by this point after its launch. The Vita also hasn't been doing nearly as well as its predecessor, with less than 2 million units out of some 5+ million worldwide. If the Wii U does 6 million in Japan and the XBO 2 million, then for the eighth generation to match the seventh, the PS4 would have to sell 16 million units. If it sells as well as the PS1 or PS2 and the Wii U and XBO as well as I think, that might drive the eighth-gen total to around 30 million, which would be a decent rebound.

In any case, given the unpredictable nature of the Japanese market, when I made my estimates in my previous post, I was actually assuming modest growth of less than 15% worldwide, versus the normal 40+%. Even Microsoft is projecting less-than-normal growth: they're estimating 385 eighth-gen systems, a 28% jump over an estimated 300 million seventh-gen consoles. Here's what the first chart in this post might look like by 2023 if my projections pan out:


Don't agree with it completely, but just wanted to comment that this was a well thought out and written post.  Seems to be something of a rarity so I felt it was worth pointing out



Salnax said:
Because Sony insinuated that the PS4 already has a million pre-orders. That was a couple of weeks ago, and was said by an American, so they obviously only meant America! Which means, based on average ratios that I'm not willing to share, that the PS4 will have 8 million sales on week 1 alone!

I'm not satirizing anybody. This is an argument I've actually heard.


on n4g they say that the ps4 will surpass Wii U on pre orders alone, 

here is one from a journalist whom I had an argument with

"Undeniable popularity aside, the PS4 and XOne pre-order count alone has already long outstripped the Wii U, despite its several-month lead. This will become overwhelmingly apparent (if it isn't already) the second the two systems release."

both consoles will have over 3 millions preorders? 

lmfao, fucking dumbasses



PigPen said:
Nintendo & Microsoft will keep turning up exclusives to the point Sony can't compete and fall behind. The exclusives will determine the winner of this generation. While the Xbox One is more powerful then the Wii U, Nintendo 1st & 2nd party games is a force to be challenged. It will come down to which console have the better exclusives.

Verdict: Either Xbox One or Wii U

So I'm not sure that either will outsell the Wii U.

What planet are you on ?

The Wii U is already dead, there is zero interest in the console and no third party support.  It's already on life support and once the XBox One and PS4 hit, it'll only get worse for the Wii U.

The only reason the Wii sold well because it was a gimmick that caught on with the casuals.  The huge decline in sales and lack of longativity in comparison to the PS3 and 360 is a testament to the fact that it was a fad.  The system never really resonated with gamers, it was essentially a console that was either bought for kids or bought for casuals for Wii Fit and Wii sports. Which is why no-one is interested in the Wii U because the Wii's main market has moved on to tablet and mobile phone gaming.

Anyone who actually thinks that the Wii U will just magically start selling en masse is kidding themselves, there will be a few short spikes here and there, but just like what happened with the Gamecube it'll always only be a niche console that will essentially only have a market with the Nintendo diehards but few else.

The PS4 and XBox One will be miles ahead by the end of 2014.



Its as simple as that : Wii U is the worst system of Nintendo in sales terms.



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

relapse said:
PigPen said:
Nintendo & Microsoft will keep turning up exclusives to the point Sony can't compete and fall behind. The exclusives will determine the winner of this generation. While the Xbox One is more powerful then the Wii U, Nintendo 1st & 2nd party games is a force to be challenged. It will come down to which console have the better exclusives.

Verdict: Either Xbox One or Wii U

So I'm not sure that either will outsell the Wii U.

What planet are you on ?

The Wii U is already dead, there is zero interest in the console and no third party support.  It's already on life support and once the XBox One and PS4 hit, it'll only get worse for the Wii U.

The only reason the Wii sold well because it was a gimmick that caught on with the casuals.  The huge decline in sales and lack of longativity in comparison to the PS3 and 360 is a testament to the fact that it was a fad.  The system never really resonated with gamers, it was essentially a console that was either bought for kids or bought for casuals for Wii Fit and Wii sports. Which is why no-one is interested in the Wii U because the Wii's main market has moved on to tablet and mobile phone gaming.

Anyone who actually thinks that the Wii U will just magically start selling en masse is kidding themselves, there will be a few short spikes here and there, but just like what happened with the Gamecube it'll always only be a niche console that will essentially only have a market with the Nintendo diehards but few else.

The PS4 and XBox One will be miles ahead by the end of 2014.


Yes, you are right. Wii U won't start selling magically. It will start selling because of The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker and Super Mario 3D World.