Are you revising your numbers?

There is no indication the Xbox One could fell below 35% WW. And much less 40% in NA.

You are puting to much faith in price and overstimating PS4 apeal.

If things remain as they are. I would expect the following in the next 6 months:

PS4 wins in North America & UK, completely dominates everywhere else.

Xbox One remains healthy in North America & UK, drops to Wii U levels in Europe and rest of world.

However I don't expect Microsoft to remain idle and let this happen. Expect a sub 400$ Xbox One SKU without Kinect, in 2014. If they are really aggressive, they could hit a 300-350 price point to justify the system's inferior hardware. Things could get really interesting then.

I saw a clusterfuck of obvious statements that any layman could provide. Sorry, Professor, but nothing impressive here.

I haven't touched anything on original estimates, and I don't see much of a reason to have any revision for now. But I will revisit in 1 year, and see what'll happen. So far, I hardly had any reason to revise any of my earlier estimates at all. I believe my judgement is pretty solid (and based sicentific data and good observation, without letting my bias cloud my judgement).

That is quite close to my estimates. Roughly speaking the global XB1 shares will be 1/4 to 1/3 of total PS4 + XB1 sales (2 or 3 PS4 sold for every XB1). In NA, I am expecting around 35-45% market share for XB1.

Those things are / were not that obvious because there are still MANY people out there who claim that Xbox brand is too strong to have a market share less than 50%. All those statistics are not just my opinions, they are calculated and proven statistical estimates. Not just yet another person's willy nilly ideas who happens to guess when things are obvious. I have had those estimates the moment those consoles were announced.

Way earlier than that, I actually predicted even the architecture of those consoles, claiming that both consoles would use APUs from AMD, coupled with many cores (though I was guessing quad core) and abundant RAM (at least 4 GB). Now those things may seem obvious to you, when I had those predictions, 99% of people just flat-out dismissed APUs to be too weak, suggested RAM amounts too low etc...

It is easy to have day by day, obvious estimates. The art is estimating mid to long term based estimates on easily trackable and provable scientific data, and being very consistent on this.

And yes, I am seriously a college professor.

Given the recent announcement:
http://news.xbox.com/2013/11/xbox-xbox-one-momentum-announcement
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=172902&page=1

XB1 sold 1 million in 24 hours

Out of those 1 million sales,
Let's assume that

US + Canada : 600 K - 700 K

Others : 300 K - 400 K

let's also assume that this sales figures extrapolate to the future exactly like that...

In North America, roughly speaking

PS4 : 1000 K

XB1 : 600-700 K

This is a 30-40% deficit on XB1's account, impliying a 37-41 % NA market share for XB1. Again perfectly aligned with my original expectations (35-45% in NA).

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/xbox-one-sells-150k-units-in-first-week-in-uk/0124857

Assuming most of UK Sales came within 24 hours, out of the 1 million worldwide sales, 150 K goes to UK. This leaves 850 K. As I originally stated 600-700 K is for NA, while 150-250 K for the remaining countries.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/ps4-has-sold-over-250k-ps4s-in-the-uk/0125169

PS4 seems to have sold around 250 K in 48 hours vs 150 K for XB1. For now, this implies a 38%-62% division between XB1 and PS4. My original estimates for NA and EU were...

EU
XB1 : 15-25 %
PS4 : 75-85%

NA
XB1 : 35-45%
PS4 : 55-65%

I didn't have any specific estimate for UK alone but it sure is expected to have market shares between NA and EU, closer to English speaking NA. So the current 48 hours split, 38%-62% tends to make sense, resembling the NA market, though a bit closer to EU. To be more specific, I am guessing the XB1 share in UK may either go up a bit (around 40%) or somewhat diminish, mimicking EU; but either way, the XB1 share will be consistently below NA and above EU average.

I am missing one of the comments I made after this very comment. There I said, the estimates above are based on "1 million sales of XB1", which is for 24 hours. But I added, the numbers for the first week will be higher, and depending on the improvement, say 20%, all those separate estimates for each region will also improve by the same amount. Therefore, if XB1 ends up selling 1.2 million, (as later suggested by VGChartz), I had estimated the following figures:

For the 1st entire week  (1.2 million, 20% increase from 24 hours)

NA : 720 K - 960 K ( 20% more than 600 K - 700 K)
Others : 240 K - 360 K (20% more than 200 K - 300 K)

I see that VGChartz originally estimated 900 K for 1st day in NA, which I estimated to be "too high". Then VGChartz updated their estimates to the following

NA : 797,882

Others : 326,208

Both estimates are exactly within the range of my original estimates for the 1st week totals...