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Forums - Nintendo - W101 is going to be a gargantuan flop

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Mythmaker1 on 25 August 2013

Maybe...but maybe not.

If the game fails, its because they spent too much money on it, not because it didn't sell enough. A game with sales of $2 million on a $1 million budget succeeds, while a game with sales of $10 million on a $20 million budget fails.

The fact it's Nintendo-published also helps, since they waive the platform holder's cut. The fact they have a history of relatively low sales for their games is another encouraging point. In the end, though, it really does depend on how much it cost to make.



I believe in honesty, civility, generosity, practicality, and impartiality.

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curl-6 on 25 August 2013
spurgeonryan said:
Good news. Gamestop employees seemed 2 know a lot about it and said many have been asking about it. 100 thousand first week world wide will not be that bad. Imo. Especially for the ssystem it is on, being a niche title and a new ip.

Agreed?

100k first week globally would be pretty damn good under the circumstances. 

I will be more than happy to eat crow on this one.



Frogger on 25 August 2013

I don't think it will sell a lot lifetime, but do I think it will be profitable? Absolutely. But Nintendo doesn't need profitable right now. They need system sellers. They need momentum. Although they started that now with Pikmin 3, the Wonderful 101 will be a big damper on their momentum if they don't start advertising. And real advertising. Not stupid Nintendo Directs that only expose the game to the people who already have the thing pre-ordered.



gergroy on 25 August 2013
curl-6 said:
gergroy said:
curl-6 said:

There are only a few franchises on the planet that can take the fight to GTA. Mario Kart is one of them. ;)


Except they arent fighting with each other, that was my point.  The target audience for mario kart wii is completely different than gta.  Just like the target audience for w101 (if there even is one) is different from gta.  Honestly, I cant even think of a scenario of somebody walking into a game store and having to choose between the two games.  

Most gamers don't subscribe to only one genre or style of game. I don't find it at all hard to believe that a gamer could be interested in both. GTA5's appeal is so vast that it's almost inevitable it would overlap with a fair bit of Wii U's userbase.

But gta 5 isnt on the wii u.  Its isnt competing with other wii u games!  

Now, you may think that a lot of wii u are multi console owners.  Ok lets say 80% own some sort of console or consoles from the last gen.  Now, of that 80% i would imagine at least 60% probably only owned a wii, and the other 40% owned either 360, ps3, or some sort of combination.  Now, since we are talking about nintendo, these are probably family focused systems, so lets say gta probably has a crossover appeal of about 20% .  Now, these are just percentages im pulling out of my behind, but I think they are probably more generous than reality.The end result is this would only be an issue of choice for bout 200k wii u owners.  Nintendo doesnt have a large audience for mature games, as you can see with the sales figure of any mature title on their systems.



think-man on 25 August 2013
POE said:
It will sell well. You should buy it too

Flopped. :/

Tsutaya Software Sales Rankings: Week 34, 2013 (Aug 19 - Aug 25) 01./NEW [PS3] Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Masou Kishin III - Pride of Justice
 02./NEW [PSV] Conception II: Shichisei no Michibiki to Mazuru no Akumu
 03./01. [3DS] Disney Magic Castle: My Happy Life
 04./NEW [PSV] Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Masou Kishin III - Pride of Justice
 05./02. [3DS] Mario & Luigi: Dream Team
 06./03. [3DS] Youkai Watch
 07./06. [3DS] Friend Collection: New Life
 08./NEW [PS3] Dungeons & Dragons Collection: Mystara Eiyuu Senki
 09./04. [3DS] Ace Attorney 5
 10./12. [PS3] Earth Defense Force 2025
 11./NEW [3DS] Conception II: Shichisei no Michibiki to Mazuru no Akumu
 12./05. [PS3] Dragon's Crown
 13./10. [3DS] Fantasy Life: Link!
 14./09. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf 15./08. [WIU] Pikmin 3
 16./NEW [WIU] The Wonderful 101
 17./07. [3DS] One Piece: Romance Dawn - Bouken no Yoake
 18./18. [PSP] Dangan-Ronpa (PSP the Best)
 19./13. [PSP] Toukiden
 20./21. [PS3] The Last of Us



 

How to Make friends In Dark Souls 3

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curl-6 on 25 August 2013
gergroy said:
curl-6 said:

Most gamers don't subscribe to only one genre or style of game. I don't find it at all hard to believe that a gamer could be interested in both. GTA5's appeal is so vast that it's almost inevitable it would overlap with a fair bit of Wii U's userbase.

But gta 5 isnt on the wii u.  Its isnt competing with other wii u games!  

Now, you may think that a lot of wii u are multi console owners.  Ok lets say 80% own some sort of console or consoles from the last gen.  Now, of that 80% i would imagine at least 60% probably only owned a wii, and the other 40% owned either 360, ps3, or some sort of combination.  Now, since we are talking about nintendo, these are probably family focused systems, so lets say gta probably has a crossover appeal of about 20% .  Now, these are just percentages im pulling out of my behind, but I think they are probably more generous than reality.The end result is this would only be an issue of choice for bout 200k wii u owners.  Nintendo doesnt have a large audience for mature games, as you can see with the sales figure of any mature title on their systems.

I think you're seriously underestimating the number of Wii U owners who have a PS3 or 360.



think-man on 25 August 2013
Zero999 said:
think-man said:
Zero999 said:

a sourceless rumour saying only 30k copies were shipped to japan doesn't qualify as true.

europe coment is an exaggeration.

the game is wii u only, being released first on europe and japan won't affect US sales. GTA5 release date is unrelated.


Do you think it will sell more than 30k first week? 

 

Im thinking 100-120k LTD in Japan

I certainly don't believe the shipments were only 30k, it makes no sense and there's no source.

Tsutaya Software Sales Rankings: Week 34, 2013 (Aug 19 - Aug 25) 

 

1. NEW [PS3] Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Masou Kishin III - Pride of Justice
2. NEW [PSV] Conception II: Shichisei no Michibiki to Mazuru no Akumu
3. [3DS] Disney Magic Castle: My Happy Life
4. NEW [PSV] Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Masou Kishin III - Pride of Justice
5. [3DS] Mario & Luigi: Dream Team
6. [3DS] Youkai Watch
7. [3DS] Friend Collection: New Life
8. NEW [PS3] Dungeons & Dragons Collection: Mystara Eiyuu Senki
9. [3DS] Ace Attorney 5
10. [PS3] Earth Defense Force 2025
11. NEW [3DS] Conception II: Shichisei no Michibiki to Mazuru no Akumu
12. [PS3] Dragon's Crown
13. [3DS] Fantasy Life: Link!
14.  [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf 15./08.
15. [WIU] Pikmin 3
16. NEW [WIU] The Wonderful 101
17.  [3DS] One Piece: Romance Dawn - Bouken no Yoake
18. [PSP] Dangan-Ronpa (PSP the Best)
19.  [PSP] Toukiden
20. [PS3] The Last of Us

If they shipped more than 30k I feel sorry for them, cause it stands its looking like it sold around 10k.



 

How to Make friends In Dark Souls 3

gergroy on 25 August 2013
curl-6 said:
gergroy said:
curl-6 said:

Most gamers don't subscribe to only one genre or style of game. I don't find it at all hard to believe that a gamer could be interested in both. GTA5's appeal is so vast that it's almost inevitable it would overlap with a fair bit of Wii U's userbase.

But gta 5 isnt on the wii u.  Its isnt competing with other wii u games!  

Now, you may think that a lot of wii u are multi console owners.  Ok lets say 80% own some sort of console or consoles from the last gen.  Now, of that 80% i would imagine at least 60% probably only owned a wii, and the other 40% owned either 360, ps3, or some sort of combination.  Now, since we are talking about nintendo, these are probably family focused systems, so lets say gta probably has a crossover appeal of about 20% .  Now, these are just percentages im pulling out of my behind, but I think they are probably more generous than reality.The end result is this would only be an issue of choice for bout 200k wii u owners.  Nintendo doesnt have a large audience for mature games, as you can see with the sales figure of any mature title on their systems.

I think you're seriously underestimating the number of Wii U owners who have a PS3 or 360.


Or you are overestimating.  Early adopters are generally fans of the company, pegging 360 and ps3 ownership at roughly a third of the userbase is pretty generous I would think.  



Panama on 25 August 2013

How does Kamiya feel about all this?



curl-6 on 25 August 2013
gergroy said:
curl-6 said:

I think you're seriously underestimating the number of Wii U owners who have a PS3 or 360.


Or you are overestimating.  Early adopters are generally fans of the company, pegging 360 and ps3 ownership at roughly a third of the userbase is pretty generous I would think.  

A lot of Wii owners had a PS3/360 already, including those who may have the upgraded to Wii U. One can be a Nintendo fan and still own another brand of console. I have a 360 and I've been a Nintendo fan since I was 4.