People don't only buy a game if they have played its predecessor. Many Wii U gamers who didn't play Bayo 1 will embrace its successor nonetheless.

And Pikmin 3 isn't a good example to prove your point; its 350k so far are from just 1 week in NA, 3 in Europe, and 5 in Japan. It will most likely pass a million lifetime.

Ah didn't check the numbers, fair enough.

Well we'll see about that, come release (and the following months after). But to counter your argument, I'd say that a lot of buyers (or potential) would be more reluctant to buy a game if they haven't played the first one. Games that release on platforms which do not have the previously titles tend to do quite poorly in that sense. Yeah, there are exceptions but thats the way it usually goes. Anyway.. at least you're getting Bayonetta

I still tend to believe gamers will make exceptions when a game looks good enough to them. Resident Evil did well on Gamecube despite the first 3 being on PS1, for instance.

And hell yes I am getting it, wouldn't miss it! :D The first Bayonetta is one of my favourite games of the 7th gen.

To be perfectly fair, Conduit sold over half a million copies. It obviosuly made at least a moderate profit, considering that Sega greenlit a sequel. It wasn't a flop, it just wasn't a "Big Hit" either. And quite frankly, for an out of left field, brand new IP from a company known for licensed games, on a system not heavily known for FSP games, I'd say half a mil was pretty decent. Now Conduit 2, THAT was a flop, and for many reasons. For one thing, Sega seemed to abandon it before it even released, they promoted it exactly not at all. And then HVS themselves fucked the game up by completely changing the tone for no real good reason, hiring the dumbass who voices Duke Nukem instead of the first guy, replacing an at least somewhat interesting, series "X-Files" sort of vibe, for a silly, bad-jokes-by-the-dozen crap comedy plot. They changed the look of the hero from a guy in some kind of sleek tech suit that at the very least looked unique, to a shitty looking, generic "Space Marine" armor. You name it. They sold their own game out almost worse than Sega did, because they changed the things that actually WERE good about the first game, and didn't spend enough effort in improving the things that weren't all that great.

As for MadWorld, it was VERY niche, a black & white, uber-violent "Running Man" type game where the objective is to kill people in grusome ways. That was never destined to be a HUGE seller, and yet, it sold over 700k. I'd call that pretty good. And No More Heroes is still to this day the highest selling Suda 51 game. Even 2 on Wii sold considerably better (almost 400k) than the PS3 ports did.

And the thing is, Wonderful 101, while the gameplay style itself might be "niche", the graphical look and "Heros fighting robots" theme is much more mainstream and could appeal to a broader audience. I'm not saying it'll sell like hotcakes. But I don't think it'll bomb either. I stand by my 500k lifetime sales prediction.

Don't underestimate the Nintendo audience's willingness to buy M-rated games.

Resident Evil 4 sold 1.7m on Gamecube, 2.2m on Wii. COD World at War, Modern Warfare, and Black Ops cleared a million each on Wii, and COD3 passed 2m.

its not that Ninty systems dont sell M-rated games, they just dont do it as much as the other two.

True, but you don't have to be one of the "Ps xbox crowd" to buy an M rated game. Nintendo gamers will still buy them if they deem them to be desirable enough.