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Forums - Sales Discussion - Poll : which is the next system to die and why?

Ps2 of course ... and then the handhelds ... probably software support will die out faster for the PSP , but it will hold the market just as much as the DS ... than either the 360 or Wii . 360 if MS wants another early start , and Wii if Nintendo wants to make a HD Wii . PS3 will last long , because they will want to make as much profit from the console as possible ...



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re: 10 year plan

that is marketing talk to get people to feel safe in buying an expensive console...with maybe a little bit of hope mixed in as well

just because they say it'll be around for 10 years doesn't mean it will...and if it is, it doesn't mean that they don't release ps4 after 5 years



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
Badonkadonkhr said:
sony isn't in any rush to make a ps4 , they are known for having their systems out for a long time . The ps2 is going for 8 years now and will probably still be selling next year. The ps3 will be no different. I don't think the wii will last 8 years . Any way here is my order.

360 - PSP - PS2 - DS - WII - PS3

The highest selling console always has a span that goes into the next gen you're not giving anything to support you case. Sales = support = more sales = longer life If a system doesn't sell it's computing power has NO redemption. Wanna talk history? Let's talk about the weakest system almost always winning, let's talk about no market leader taking more than 2 generations in a row. Let's talk about Sony becoming cocky about the game market like Nintendo had with the SNES. Yes my friend let's talk about history but let's not be selective. If PS3 isn't the market leader or at least 2nd towards the end, PS4 will come out sooner rather than later and don't kid yourself Sony will drop it like a bad habbit if it's not worth keeping. Edit: I've said it before I'll say it again. As much as we hate to admit it casuals decide 90% of our market. In most generations casuals tend to come in at year 2 and beyond up till year 8(as we saw with the PS2 and even the Game boy etc) Generally when the technology comes under 200$ the casuals jump on and when it starts in the boarders of 100$ more come on. By the start of a new gen whoever had the most games in the previous gen will be the perceived best value for the highly casual people and their children who want a lot of cheap games not a less still fairly pricey ones. These are the people that buy Mario Party in majority, they're the guys that buy those games you who might consider yourself core look at and go "Why would anybody buy this" because your taste isn't law. This generation is odd in that Wii had mass market appeal that superseded the fact that it is not sub 200$ just yet. Bet your bottom dollar there are still casuals waiting for sub 200 and even sub 150.

i say 360. it has nothing really inovative. and was out of date once the PS3 & Wii was released.



PSN: B_U_L_L_D_O_G_G

XBL: BiggBully

Wii: 6629 9857 7201 4139

Not throwing handhelds in there.. but i think it will go

PS2 -> Wii -> X360 -> PS3

PS2 8 years old.. still going fairly strong.. 2 years left at best.
Wii Dated internals, no HDTV, no hard drive
X360 Xbox3 Will come out, Following on from Wii2
PS3 Sony needs to make their money back, and it'll move into more of a media unit than a games console.



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PS2-PSP-360/PS3-Wii-DS

PS2 will die soon, expect it to have near dead sales somewhere inn 2009. PSP is to follow, because of the bad software sales. PSP2 will launch soon after PSP hardware perishes as well, and it will outsell DS Lite, forcing Nintendo to launch a new version of the DS, which will outsell the PSP2 for most of the time. This will happen somewhere between 2009-2011.
Then 360 and PS3 will fall next. Sony and Microsoft will happily continue the console war. PS4 and X720 will release almost at the same moment, somewhere in 2011. This will kill their old systems, because neither of them are market leaders, and third party support will die with first party support.
Wii will stop selling after those two. Around 6 months after the PS4 and 720 launch, Nintendo will launch N6. Wii-owners will be offered a price reduction when they trade their old Wii's for N6's, and Wii will still get a lot of casual games, leaving the N6 open for early adopters, the 'hardcore gamers'. Wii won't completely die until end 2013/ begin 2014.
DS will be last in line. After defeating PSP, and defeating PSP2 with another new model, sales of the third model will begin to drop somewhere in 2011/2012. Nintendo will release a new model, which will still outsell PSP2, but only barely. Finally, in 2013/2014, when PSP2 starts outselling DS very regularly, a new DS will come out and officially follow the DS. But DS will still live on, finally dying somewhere between 2015-2017.

Of course, things can still change when Nintendo decides to follow up GBA with a GC-specced handheld, or when Microsoft comes out with a handheld, or when either Sony or Microsoft goes casual.



If there is no more PS2 revisions, PS2 will die first.

PSP may live longer than we think, don't count it out too soon. The only game that will fully utilize its CPU hasn't even come out yet (GOW). Sony may revise (upgrade) the PSP 1-2 more times to make it smaller, consume less energy, and accommodate more functions . The older versions of PSP still play games, but gamers will have to buy new machine to enjoy extra functions.

I really don't see the point of making PSP more powerful. It's a freaking portable PS2. So why would Sony kill the current PSP? Unless Sony want to give up UMD.... I hope not.



It (PS3's market share) might hit 30%, but definently not more. ~ Neo

Flaming (Calling another user (any user) a fanboy is flaming.) ~ Machina-AX

out of all of themv excluding the handhelds, i think the ps2 will die before any other simply because it has been out for 8 years already. most of those ps2 gamers will turn to ps3 anyways. vthe only ps2 games i see people buying these days are sports games, or racing.


current gen: i see the xbox 360 becoming the original xbox, because it has simply used up all its juice (games) like halo. the only game i see 360 owners being interested in 2008 is halo wars (which wont work on a console due to it being a rts),v and gears of war 2, if thats evenv going to be made. developers will soon start porting more games from ps3 to 360, which are going to look like crap, and the 360, will become the new dreamcast. i personally, cant see 360 lasting the next 2 years. microsoft will againv make a new console, and waste more money, while sony keeps its ps3 through 2016.

teh wii is next. as youv e all heard, the wii is failing in terms of games, due its lack of 3rd party (i think its 3rd party) games. nintendo,v as alwayds, will continue to make boaring sequels and versions like zelda, link, mario, wario what ever.



CaptainPrefrences said:
teh wii is next. as youv e all heard, the wii is failing in terms of games, due its lack of 3rd party (i think its 3rd party) games. nintendo,v as alwayds, will continue to make boaring sequels and versions like zelda, link, mario, wario what ever.

 Is third party game quality as important as all that?  It hasn't hurt Wii sales or even Wii software sales, as Wii software has passed PSP software totals in NA and Japan already



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

thekitchensink said:
Definitely either the 360 or PS3, if either of them will 'die' like you say.

Thats not a good answer.

 

Thats like telling the bomb squad to either cut the red or the green wire. Theres a 50/50 chance they will be blown up.