The next Direct cannot come any sooner. The sanity levels are at an all-time low.

In Joe's alternate universe, Reggie is the CEO of Nintendo.

impertincence said:

I'll quote the full response this time for reference since it's been a while, I strive to keep things short and to the point so I'll just give a few observations and comments here.

Alright, I’ll try to do the same!

On the gamepad as the primary controller: 

The gamepad is marketed as the 'it' thing both on the box and on the Nintendo website, it is less prominent in their new styled ads, but yes: When I purchased the Wii U (which I more or less did to reward Nintendo for what the Wii did for me as a gamer personally) I expected the Game Pad to be the main controller as well. It is in a way, since it's very convenient to slide from the UI to a game and back using the GamePad, but this is only the case when messing around in single player mode. For all family styled games, the Game Pad is just an accessory that you sort of pass around to the players who's turn it is. The Wii U without a full set off Wii motes is unthinkable to me. I think Nintendo very much intended for the Wii U to be an upgrade path for people who already have invested a lot of money in Wii accessories.

This, once more, implies that Nintendo suddenly changed their focus though. Going from the style where the Gamepad dominated ads and to a more all-round approach; not only have they chosen a converging design with less than clear aim, they have already also changed direction somewhat with the advertisement of the product itself in the relatively short life of the console. It’s kind of a seesaw image they have going, no wonder consumers get confused. Your bit in parenthesis is telling though, and in line with what I’m thinking; the Wii U will be popular with people like you and me but be somewhat difficult to approach for others.
The last bit also suggest another thing I’ve been assuming; the Wii U strategy relies heavily upon living off of the Wii’s original customer base, which, it seems will be terribly hard at best.

On Nintendo not planning the Wii U launch and message very well:

No joke! The messaging and promotion of the Wii U has been and continuous to be disastrous and in my opinion the main factor in how the market has rejected the Wii U. The bad news is 5.2 million, the good news is it's fixable and not something related to failed hardware like many are assuming. When the Wii U came on the market it was shown in stores with only a playable demo of Rayman Legends, a game that would be delayed by more than half a year, and only uses the gamepad for some touch control gaming elements. Where was Mario Chase or Luigi's Mansion minigame from Nintendo land? Or the cool Donkey Kong themes mini game? Those would have been much better for showing off the possibilities of the system.

This is an area where we seem to be quite in agreement, although I still maintain that the Wii U’s somewhat bipolar design and lack of proper aim will be a massive problem and that this is one that cannot be fixed. A lot of folks are saying they should remove the Gamepad but that would make the whole thing damn near completely worthless and it is also practically impossible due to features and implementation relying on it to a significant extent. Ubisoft screwing Nintendo on Rayman shows that they need to be weary of them; if they can’t replicate the Just Dance phenomenon on the Wii U, there’s a chance they will abandon the platform almost entirely.

On the perceived value:

This is where we differ the most I guess. The Wii U as a system is not the problem, it's a system that people love once they try it.

That is a huge problem regardless though, right? And, like I said; I’m still convinced that the system itself is the problem; the Gamepad more specifically.

The problem is that they are not seeing the value before they have the system in their hands. So the perceived value is low because of failed messaging, not because people don't want the product.

If the message remains absent, they don’t want the product in the first place though. They don’t seem to be trying to get this message across more efficiently either; they appear to simply have adjusted it towards another group and more defined group(kids and families if the commercials are anything to go by).

I also put much less emphasis on the competition from the mobile and tablet market. It's simply just two different experiences and your fitness app example is a good illustration of this. People who buy Wii fit U will do it for the added value that version has over the fitness apps, it could be the direct feedback from the balance board needed to correct a pose in Yoga, or something as trivial as the fun of virtually climbing Mount Everest based on your changes in elevation during the day.

Is this really something desirable in today’s convenience driven market though, and at that price? I don’t think it is and I believe those apps have huge advantages over Wii Fit U, most of all in integration and sheer availability, really cashing in on the convenience factor. There’s probably a reason why the aerobics videos of the 80’s and 90’s all but disappeared; times and market demands change.

I'm not saying that there will be no loss to the mobile market at all, but I think it's much more limited than many think. Nintendo is very conscious of creating experiences that are different from the mobile experience. If people will buy into these efforts or not is an open question.

Different from; perhaps. I don’t think it will be better though, and certainly not more convenient. The problem is competing with mobile/tablet providers within the more strict confines of the home console format. Being different isn’t automatically a good thing. And, meanwhile, most other features will be presented in likely superior versions on competing consoles.

As far as the $199 price point. It is important because it's obviously one of the psychological price points and it's also the last of these price points that people associate with toys and play things.

I’m not sure of 199$ is a price tag often associated with toys, those would be things like advanced RC cares and similar things then.

Above this price point it's difficult to get a lot of people to buy something that is considered a toy. Despite what people on a board like this wants to pretend, most people still consider videogaming a play activity and a console as an expensive toy.

Then that’s another divide and hurdle for the Wii U; if it is perceived as a toy, how will it hope to compete with mobiles/tablets that have a better and more mature image and a much higher perceived value in the population that would be the best target for fitness games? I think Wii Fit U will be a dud when all is said and done and that it won’t help the Wii U gain any traction at all.

Game enthusiasts will buy the console they want when the price is right for them, and that can be as high as $699 as we've seen, but the mass market won't. Wii U is the first console of this gen that will hit the $199 price point, and assuming that it has a half way decent library by then that will  be the trigger for many people. It's still a ways off, but the way things are going that price might not be out of the question as early as next year. And just to state the obvious: smart phones are not perceived as toys in the market, they are also by and large brought to market at $199 and lower ( or $299 for the newest models).

This is my claim though; I don’t think the 199$ price point will do anything for a product that fails to cause enthusiasm in the mass market in the first place. Not to mention the losses Nintendo would be forced to continually take on the Wii U when chasing this price. The library it will have by the time the 199$ tag is fixed to it won’t be the kind to draw in those consumers, they will be mostly for you and me, and the Gamepad and overall poor image of the thing will remain a great hindrance.

Smartphones are not considered toys, that’s true, but that is also a huge issue for Nintendo and ties very well into perceived value. I strongly disagree that smartphones are brought to the market at 199$-299$ or lower though; most modern phones are really expensive, especially if you buy them stand-alone without any subsidy through subscriptions. Here in Scandinavia, the newest models typically run between 4500-6000 Kroner stand-alone (a lot “cheaper” with subscriptions though, but those set you back a lot over time instead), that’s about 750-1000$, yet they fly off the shelves and end up as mass market devices.

Where does this leave the Wii U?

Impossible to tell. I can see a 'slow viral' growth for the Wii U if the software is compelling enough. Meaning as more and more people get the system (despite what wisecracks are saying there are actually new people buying the system every week) word of mouth will spread. The way the Wii U is brought to the market right now, it can only reach penetration based on word of mouth. The value is not communicated a priori so people need to see and feel it before they see the value. This is of course an incredibly weak position for Nintendo, and far from guaranteed to even happen. They need to fix their messaging starting yesterday, but is the concept of the Wii U even possible to communicate effectively through advertising? I am not a marketing guy, but even I can think of things to do to improve the understanding of the product. Who knows what Nintendo will do though.

I’m not one for stating my opinion and outlook as facts either, but I do think that there isn’t much to be done for the Wii U and it won’t ever reach any kind of impressive level of sales. The word of mouth will never be widespread for a product that fails to enthuse from the very beginning and the consumers who will likely end up buying the Wii U (like you and me, I’m waiting for the price to drop first) are the ones who typically rely the least on word of mouth and the most on actual insight, research and product awareness. The Wii strategy simply won’t work on a non-Wii product with such chaotic aim.

I don't typically predict numbers or even trends, but I have said I think we'll see a general contraction in the Video game market.

For me, that is beyond any doubt at this point.

This is because I don't think Nintendo will be able to ignite the market like they need to (this is based purely on percentages as not igniting a mass phenomenon is a lot easier than igniting one) and because I think the number of video game customers will shrink. You (and many others) blame this on tablets and phones.

I don’t think Sony and Microsoft will be as greatly affected by this; at least the PS4 isn’t trying to be an alternative to these devices. Just like the 3DS was less similar than the Vita to the mobile/tablet segment. I think Nintendo, who are hoping for the Wii customers to come rushing back, will get quite a bit of trouble over this though. Kinect is a silly thing to integrate in the One, in my opinion, but it’s not an overly obvious attempt at appealing to the mobile/tablet consumers, so it won’t be as detrimental to the overall situation of the Xbox brand.

I think that factor is minimal, but I do think that the 'sameness' you've talked about is a double edged sword for MS and Sony. More PC like architectures and games will make the PC itself a more direct competitor and I think as this generation goes on more and more people will do what I would have done today if I was interested in a PS4: Spend the money on upgrading my HTPC instead and get the games through Steam and or piracy.

That’s not entirely unlikely, games like Titanfall being shared on PC shows that there is still incentive and interest in developing for the PC. I think the 8^th gen will be similar to the 6^th gen in hardware sales overall, with a more evenly distributed market share. I think this sameness will lead to less and less platform exclusives and that Kinect will detract from the One’s image as the superior “hardcore” console and it won’t lure in the “casuals” either, being on a Xbox machine with its usual software environment and image, Kinect is also an attempt at market convergence, and will be a failed one at that (in my opinion).

I apologize, again my writings are scattered and too long. The debate is multi faceted at this point. It is difficult to be succinct.

We’re all writing too much in here, it’s like a disease! :P Honestly though; I enjoy your input and posts and appreciate your somewhat mediating role in the debate, both for subject and tone. You and Incubi are the only ones disagreeing with me in a meaningful way and I respect your opinions, even the ones we don’t have in common.

Weekly Hardware Chart 04th January 2014

Platform	N. America	Europe	Japan	Global
	86,555	116,940	184,135	410,851
	98,590	119,852	N/A	264,916
	52,166	90,253	40,673	247,014
	116,744	45,028	N/A	171,885
	11,613	29,844	80,736	140,761
	70,149	37,177	782	116,309
	27,700	21,758	55,723	111,325
	2,687	41,422	12,886	84,480
	12,008	25,113	1,479	44,086

This weeks numbers are in. WiiU dropping fast already, nearly sub 100k already!

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=175861&page=1

Wow, this thread is really damning for Nintendo. Shows they launched too early.

UNITY is a cool name it should have been the name for the Nitendomination thread.

XBONE was kinda close to being outsold by Vita. Wii U was outsold by Vita.

Is vita making a comeback? JL made the thread about the wrong system!

It also disproves Lucas' ridiculous idea of politics being the main reason 3rd parties don't support Nintendo. The WiiU is too close to current gen consoles to get ports from the next gen machines, the sales figures aren't worth developing exclusive titles, and the developer even felt ignored by Nintendo. They dug their own grave when it comes to 3rd party support. Hopefully Lucas will stop blaming everyone else for the WiiU's difficulties and realize that it was Nintendo's own fault. 

That will never happen and you know it. I agree that the 3rd party troubles are mostly Nintendo's own fault and I believe I've said as much several times, but I know for a fact that JL will never in a million years admit that.

He feels that Nintendo have done "everything" to please developers, this is clearly not the case at all, I've already mentioned several reasons why this is so.

I agree that John Lucas was too extreme with the things he said. But...

It's also true that the PS3 had almost the same issue. The PS3 didn't catter to third parties. It was harder to develop for and lost a lot of time exclusives to the Xbox 360 in the 7th generation. But... even with that difficulty third parties didn't hesitate to develop for it. Sure, ports of PS3 multiplaform games where crappy but that didn't stop them from releasing them.

In the Wii U's case I doubt it's as hard as the PS3 was to develop for. There is no excuse not to release ports for the Wii U. The PS3 wasn't doing as bad as the Wii U but it wasn't doing too hot either and it still got third prty games.

I do agree that it was dumb to release the console so hastily. But maybe this article can help understand why they did it: http://www.dromble.com/2014/01/07/dolphin-tale-story-of-gamecube/

Yeah I know it's absurdly long. But in one of the paragraphs it talks about how Nintendo wanted to release the N64 and GC before the Playstation 1 and 2 and failed to do so both times. Maybe they wanted to have the headstart this time. Either way it seems that the strategy of releasing the Wii U first didn't pay off.