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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu early numbers in for 2/3/08

Avinash_Tyagi on 06 February 2008
greenmedic88 said:
Nintendo will never over-ship. I would put stock on that. The only possible scenario in which I could see a glut in inventory is if the Wii does not sell significantly better than last year during the holiday season. That would be a strange sight and I don't think anyone sees that happening. Or... Nintendo ups production by an unrealistic number. But I think they have a pretty good grasp on how many hardware units they can consistently move.

So at least 75k off the top of a 415-420k production to begin stockpiling for the holidays? That's too static. I would imagine Nintendo would be moving as many hardware units as possible during key software releases like Brawl. As unpopular as the viewpoint may be, maybe 100k (or whatever the final JPN number is) does represent current weekly demand. Not supply constrained.

There will be plenty of weeks to stockpile more units during which there are no key softs to assist in moving hardware. So far, it's been more than 75k, but it is still very early in the year. I think there will be a better picture in late February.

 Why would they need to move more hardware for a brawl launch?  You aren't going to not buy a Wii if you want to play brawl even if you have to wait a week, I don't know the reason why its only 100K, but to say that Nintendo would move stock, and that it must be low demand is speculation based on flawed reasoning



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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brute on 06 February 2008
MANUELF said:
The numbers are very low, I wish the real numbers are more big than it.

 

yeah me too i mean with the big releases you'd think they would be higher

tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

greenmedic88 on 06 February 2008

Not software, hardware. Have enough hardware units available to be moved with a key soft release. Standard practice. Good games sell hardware/conventional wisdom.

I hope you're not trying to argue that there is reason for not moving as many units of Brawl as possible upon launch, or using sales that are below expectation to assume supply constraints.

The other explanation is that Brawl is not moving hundreds of thousands of consoles because software has not been moving as many hardware units as is typical for consoles. Hardware has been moving itself.

If they could move more hardware in tandem with a Brawl launch, they would. I fail to see the flaw in that.



Avinash_Tyagi on 06 February 2008
greenmedic88 said:
Not software, hardware. Have enough hardware units available to be moved with a key soft release. Standard practice. Good games sell hardware/conventional wisdom.

I hope you're not trying to argue that there is reason for not moving as many units of Brawl as possible upon launch, or using sales that are below expectation to assume supply constraints.

The other explanation is that Brawl is not moving hundreds of thousands of consoles because software has not been moving as many hardware units as is typical for consoles. Hardware has been moving itself.

If they could move more hardware in tandem with a Brawl launch, they would. I fail to see the flaw in that.

 I meant hardware, and like I said it doesn't matter, Nintendo could release 10K every week, and people would still wait to buy it, if they wanted to play Brawl.  You don't have any proof that this is due to low demand or that Nintendo isn't stockpiling, all you have is speculation based on a premise that doesn't have any support, you assume that Nintendo will ship their hardware as you think they will.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

DMeisterJ on 06 February 2008

Okay, I'm sorry for my above post, but could someone just please explain to me where the 1.8 million Wiis are? I just need to know.



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Devilstation on 06 February 2008

Very dissapointing Hardware sales all round. SSBB and DMC4 much higher than i expected.



 

Avinash_Tyagi on 06 February 2008
DMeisterJ said:
Okay, I'm sorry for my above post, but could someone just please explain to me where the 1.8 million Wiis are? I just need to know.

 Who knows?  Maybe there aren't 1.8 million Wii's, maybe there are and they are holding them, maybe they are in transit, you'd have to ask Iwata



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Kasz216 on 06 February 2008
DMeisterJ said:
Okay, I'm sorry for my above post, but could someone just please explain to me where the 1.8 million Wiis are? I just need to know.

For January? It should be less then 1.8. Due to air freighting shipments that arrived in late december that should of went out by boat and arrived early January.

Considering that stores still got some Wii's when those now non existant boat shipments were supposed to arrive I can only imagine that they air freighted a portion of their consoles that were supposed to go out on ship. Though a smaller amount.

So how many Wii's were sold in January, then your answer likely is... those of the 1.8 not already sold are mostly going to have already been sold in december.



bigjon on 06 February 2008

All I know is that there is no way that there is any Wiis just laying around Japan... Nintendo knows what they are doing, I think they have a stockpile and they are releasing it slowly as they make shipments of WiiFit and SSBB... That is what I believe, disagree if you must.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Usdel- on 06 February 2008

I'm very very surprised about the hardware !!!

It must be a problem :

When Dynasty Warriors was released ( 170 k ) = + 235 % !!!

When Devil May Cry 4 with a very cheap bundle (210 k ) + Disgaea 3 (55k) + Assassin's Creed (40 k ) are released = just + 8 %


LOL ! Very very strange ...