@ the OP NO.

I don't even see the Wii passing the 360 in America this year. MS and Sony will both be droping the prices on their systems to 299 sometime before the launch of GTA4. This will put them in a very competitive position with the Wii. Sony has GT5P coming 2 weeks before GTA4 and MGS4 sometime in June. Microsoft has Too Human slated for the week after GTA4. These big hits all coming out around GTA4 are going to heavly sway the attintion of the general public in the way of the HD consoles.

Starting the third week of June Warner will be Blu-ray exclusive. This will re-spark the talk about Blu-ray and the format will be hinted at heavly during the summer blockbuster months as the place to see all your favorites on this winter. At this point MS will very likly be announcing thier support for Blu-ray. As hard as it may be for some to believe this will make a strong impact on the market.

The market for this gen is still not set in stone, and their are still a ton of factors that will come into play over the next year. From what I can see a lot of these factors are not good for the Wii. Like it or not Panasonic, Toshiba, Samsung, Sony, Microsoft, LG, Sanyo, Phillips, Pioneer, Vizio, Best Buy, Ciurcut City, Wal-Mart, Target, Costco, Government, etc... are all forcing people into HD weather they want to or not. This is going to put a damper on the Wii quicker than many think, which is a huge reason for many analysts feeling towards the succes of the PS3. That HD success will stop the Wii from ever reaching 360 in the USA.

Wow, seems like your predicting things based on your broad ranging assumptions and hopes, rather than historical, statistical, or even probable data.

You're assuming that people who buy a Wii would consider a PS3 as an alternative, just with HD.

While it's true, most hardcore gamers would see the Wii as an alternative to a PS3, the opposite is not true.  Casuals will not be buying many PS3's for gaming.

That said, the ongoing Blu-Ray war has nothing to do with the Wii outselling the 360 in the US. 

It's just so silly when I hear people say "Oh, people will change their mind when they adopt high def TV's, suddenly."

To be frank, this generation will probably be winding down, before Blu-Ray becomes an accepted format, and even then, your not gonna stop the momentum of the best selling console, it's too popular by then. Even if it did, people would still buy Wii's because, why wouldn't they? It's an entirely different experience than the PS3 or the 360.

I like you Sony fans better when your trying to explain why the Wii and PS3 aren't in direct competition, instead of when your trying to explain how the Wii's bubble will burst when people buy High-Def TV's.

Sweeping and monumental change hasn't started yet. I guarnee you we will see easily recognizable signs of that a year or two before it would have any kind of significant effect on the console sales leader this generation.

There is a LOT of ground to makeup, and that gap is moving in the wrong direction, if sony plans to overtake it in under 3 years. 

Darn, my prediction for October -08 will be shattered :/

no, as Nintendo isn't shipping 100% of their Wii production to NA

you working on a BINGO?

No, not until December

march 2008 ? No

I predicted by April 1st a good while back-

No, it's very simple math:

Nintendo makes about 1.8M consoles a month. The current difference between the systems is 1.7M units. So Nintendo would have to ship every Wii they make to the US to close the gap...

...but they don't. The shipments are generally 40/30/30 (US/Japan/Others), so that means the US gets about 720K units a month. So it would take about two and a half months to make up that difference...

...but the 360 will continue to sell consoles. At the current rate, it's about 320K per month. Assuming the Wii continues to sell out and the 360's sales rate remains the same, it would take a little over four months for Nintendo to close the gap.

As others have pointed out, certain game titles, possible price drops (which I do not foresee happening), and other factors may delay the crossover date. But unlike some, I do expect it to happen this year. The Wii will become the best selling console in the US before the end of 2008.