It's impossible. End of summer is most likely.

However, when it happens, nothing is going to change. The Wii is in worldwide dominance mode. The passing of the 360 in America is just adding insult to injury.

Using last weeks numbers as a baseline, Wii gains ~65k per week. The difference in sales is currently 1.7 million.

At a constant rate, it would take 26 weeks to pass X360.



Even with SSBB launching, I don't think Wii will surpass X360 before July.

Yeah I ran the numbers a bit more and I think July sounds right. But based on what happened last year with the Wii being predicted to pass the 360 WW in July and finally doing so in August I will go ahead and set my tentative prediction at early August.

The Wii is very strong in North America, but the 360 is no slouch either and I think MS might actually make a play to preserve their position as long as possible...not to mention the GTA IV release etc..there are a lot of factors that can easily draw this out a while and put simply I don't think serious estimates can be made yet.

i don't think there will be enough wii shipment until the next fiscal year

I dont think it is possible at all. Selling 1.7 Wii's from now till march 9th in just America would be pretty impressive. Now add on the number of systems the 360 will sell in America in a month and i think it would be near impossible. If there was an infinite amount of supply for this month, then i think it would be possible

I have always maintained that Wii NA will be > 360 NA in August 2008. However, if SSBB and MKWii and Wii Fit push a lot more consoles than I was betting on, I could definitely happen earlier.

it could but only of production meets demand which it isn't atm, so i would say no

Not enough demand. So no. I would be happy if Ninty decided to ship 500,000 Wiis over here along with 2 mil copies of Brawl. I think most of that would sell within the week too.

In the big Dtewi bet, I bet that the Wii would catch up to the 360 by late March or early April 2008. It's looking more and more like I'll be right on target.

Brawl will be absolutely brilliant for Wii gaming fans but it will not be much of a system seller.
Wii Fit will be a massive system seller because it reaches a whole new demographic.

Wii will not overtake 360 by March 9th because of the maths. They aren't going to make up a near 2 million unit deficit in one month.

Then there is GTA IV on April 29th which will be a massive system seller for 360 with their exclusive content.

So will Wii Fit sell 2 million more consoles than GTA IV does?
This will be the big battle through Q3 and Q4.

Of course many homes will buy both, which is what I would recommend.