If you assume that it would stay on the market exactly as long as the Wii, you would be right and its successor would launch in 2018, but if you assume as long as the 360, a new console's due out in 2020. In practice, both those figures are much too early for the market to bear. 

Sony will be keeping the PS4 out until 2023 (or at least they said that was their intent in their E3 press conference) and Microsoft is likely to keep the XB1 even longer. Launching hardware before 2020 is suicidally early. Things sort of depend on how the 3DS's successor does in the portable marketplace and if Nintendo can afford it, but it's better for Nintendo to eat a loss for a few years and develop a big launch library for their gen 9 console. The earliest launch I see as practical is two years before competition, or 2021.

And this assumes the home console industry isn't obsolete at this point. Eight years is a long time from now.

I can see it happening within the first year easily.

IIIIITHE1IIIII said: pezus said: Man, this thread will be fun to revisit at the end of the year and early next year . Doubt Sony handhelds all you want, but a Sony console at that price, with that power and game support, is going to break records. Meh, the most recognizable launch/launch window titles will be available on PS3 (and PC) as well. I'm pretty sure that people would rather get the PS3 versions while waiting for the ~$400 price tag to drop. And power will forever be irrelevant outside of fanboy wars thanks to the PC. This will be fun indeed. Bookmarked.

We have already seen in just the past month two high profile games in Japan and the US/Europe have little to no effect on PS3 sales.   High profile titles will do little in steming the rate of the PS3 sales decline while new games for the PS4, even if they are ports, will help sustain them.

Do you honestly hate Playstation consoles so much you have to make and believe false information all the time? Can't believe you called the ps2 a fluke when it outsold all the competition combinedx2. If anything is a fluke it was the wii with the casuals buying it the first 3 years. Plus looking like a wii upgrade LOL, man you sure know how to be an irrational Nintendo fan.

Why do you like whatever console you defend so much (whichever that might be.)? Why did the WCW and the WWF tear the wrestling world in half taking side on which promotion was better? Why do people like MMA over boxing? Its because where theres choice and style people who relate to the product back the product they invest in and deem to be more worth while. People take pride in the products they back because of the qualities therin. Why does the majority of the US hate the Miami Heat in Basketball? They keep winning. You cannot hold them down. Any team that faces them in the playoffs has the rest of the US on their side cheering them on. Its just how it goes. If you're the best and show domination you're hated by those who like their brands no matter their shortcomings. Pride is the reason why people fight and argue. Seldom is it truly about facts.

no clue. ps4 will have an incredible launch and will break some records but to be honest, i doubt that ps4 will sell so unbelievable good after the hardcore fans bought the console. we talk here about the real fans. even the ps3 for an unbelievable high price sold over 500k in europe alone at launch. playstation has a lot of die hard fans and that is the reason why it will sell so good at launch, not because the mass market will be so impressed by the console in the first year.

the free advertisement for sony with people uploading gameplay from their ps4 on facebook will surely help but not sure how much.

i say maybe 2015 but it could always happen that the mass market will jump on wii u or xbox one because of something we don't know about and that would mean that it could take even longer.

Eight years is a long time, especially for a Nintendo console. How is the Wii U expected to outlast every other Nintendo console when it is currently selling less than the Gamecube (which only lasted 4-5 years)?

They would be better off launching something mid-gen anyway. Maybe test the waters with a hybrid console, as 2017 - 2019 is also when they would be expected to replace the 3DS. Another "third pillar" strategy, that keeps support for the other consoles.

Next March

Holiday 2014

The Gamecube lasted five years from its launch to the Wii's launch. For comparison, the XBox lasted four and the PS2 lived six. Even a "failed" Nintendo console had an average lifespan for that generation's consoles. Average Sony's ten year plan and Microsoft's twelve years and you get eleven years. New Nintendo hardware due out 2023.

Even assuming the Wii U sales never pick up--which is questionable considering the titles in the pipe, the fuctionality, and price--Nintendo is likely to just stick it out. Sales don't determine how long a generation lasts so much as how much the company can make. Home consoles are just not lucritive enough a business anymore to justify the R&D for a console which Microsoft and Sony will make obsolete in three or four years.

And it's definitely not worth risking Nintendo's bread-winner portables on.