Cold-Flipper said:
- The Xbox brand is much stronger than people realize. According to google trends the XBox name was googled more than the Wii + Wii U & PS3 + PS4. Obviously, this doesn't guarantee anything but back in 2004 (farthest you can go back) PS2 was the winner based on google searches. Last gen? Wii was the most searched. DS also beat the PSP & 3DS easily wins over the Vita in terms of searches. Halo is also a very strong brand and is searched way more than any Nintendo or Sony series besides for...Pokemon. (Who would've thought?)
- Microsoft seems to have a concrete plan in place to make the XB1 succeed. They have been creating new series as well as buying exclusive 3rd party games. I expect this to continue and they will build up their 1st party games. They also may release a new gameplay peripheral such as Illumiroom which could spark interest in the system. Kinect should still sell systems as wel
- The most powerful system has never won a generation...ever. Why? Who knows. You can't say it's because of price though because the PS1 & PS2 dominated despite not being the lowest priced system.
- Ever since the PS1, the "normal" system has never won a generation. What I mean by "normal" is a system that doesn't do much different besides for being more powerful. I believe many factors helped the original PS's win but some of the bigger factors were the incorporation of a CD & DVD player. The PS3 never had that "special" thing due to bluray not taking off. PS4 also has nothing that sticks out. (For now)
- Sony isn't in the best position to get into a price war with Microsoft or Nintendo. This could hurt them in the longrun
- I believe that Nintendo actually can make something of the Gamepad. I think this will begin with Wii Party U. I also fully expect some type of Pokemon game that could be a huge hit if done right.
- Nintendo has the biggest series in the industry which they can rely heavily on.
- The price is cheaper than the PS4 which will help.
Anyone on this site actually agree?
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You make a few interesting and valid points.
Firstly, I do believe that the Xbox brand is a lot stronger in some respects than it is given credit for. However, that is really only the case in heavily westernized cultures. Outside of North America/UK -- The Xbox simply isn't that viable. When talking about 'Total Sales' any device that has limited scope will have a more difficult time in being the top in sales. Many of Xbox One's features are completely directed at North American customers and even the launch scope is narrowed down.
Secondly, while Microsoft appears to "finally" understand that they need to create new IPs and new games in order to actually compete in the console realm, I believe they're going to need to prove it to the general public and everybody should be skeptical. My biggest disgust with the Xbox brand has been the complete whoring out of a select few games (Halo, Gears, Forza) with nothing of substance outside of that. Keep in mind that the 360 (By a Metacritic standard) didn't release a full-fledged AAA exclusive title not named Halo,Gears or Forza since 2006.
Thirdly, I think the most powerful console never winning is a bit of a misnomer. The PS2 released earlier than most of it's competitors and was easily the best visual product on the market when it launched, later on better looking consoles were released but the graphical differences were somewhat minimal and the software disparity was huge, so the PS2 easily won the generation. This generation should prove interesting on two accounts. The PS4 should have better looking graphics and at a cheaper price. In my eyes, the PS4 will wipe the floor with the Xbox One in sales for these two reasons.
I don't really believe that 'normal' has anything to do with it. In my opinion - Sales usually pertains to (Desirable software, Console price, Additional features it can provide). The PS2 had a mountain of software and exclusive software that people wanted, had a reasonable price and also provided DVD playback. The Wii had a killer application that everyone wanted to play (Wii Sports), at a reasonable price, and by the nature of the machine provided an avenue for more casual gamers to enjoy). The reason the Wii's sales went belly up and the PS2 for example didn't -- in my opinion is the lack of compelling software. It's too early to speculate on what features the public will crave. PS2 is the most successful console ever and it built that on the back of essentially being a reasonably priced, more powerful PS1 with a killer software library. I think the PS4 is positioned (Especially if it releases before the Xbox One) to easily grab the early adopter, hardcore gamer crowd. This is the one area where the Xbox One could potentially win and win big, but I have serious doubts. If MS succeeds in having Xbox One as the ultimate multimedia device, they feasibly eventually could reach a point where they are providing a reasonable price, with desirable software and additional features that neither console has.
I simply don't see any viable arguments for saying the Wii U will outsell the PS4 at this point. The Wii was the exception not the rule as far as I'm concerned. The lack of third party support, the poor sales, the lack of any truly killer games at this point, the lack of really strong networked features that Sony and MS have built. I imagine the Wii U will sell around 30-35 million in total. Once the PS4 / Xbox One hit, I don't see Nintendo winning anywhere except in pricing.
The PS3 has been consistently outpacing the 360 since what 2009? And has almost always been tracking higher with aligned launches. The Wii truly was a sales fad that we can clearly see has died off. Sony simply has better worldwide support for their consoles than either of their competitors and has a wide range of studios that make games that reach every market across a wide variety of genres. I believe they lost North America in the past generation because of pricing (600$ will scare anyone away) and by the time they came in with a reasonable price -- Most people had already purchased a 360 with their friends. Sony won't have the domination in North America they had previously because of the PS3 mistakes, but they will be able to regain a large percentage by pricing and system power IMO.
