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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gran Turismo 6 Sales Prediction Thread

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How much will GT6 sell lifetime?

>15 million, best selling GT game 20 7.81%
 
12-15 million 19 7.42%
 
11-12 million 13 5.08%
 
10-11 million 40 15.63%
 
9-10 million 36 14.06%
 
8-9 million 28 10.94%
 
7-8 million 28 10.94%
 
6-7 million 35 13.67%
 
<6 million, It's going to bomb 33 12.89%
 
There's a Squirrel on the track!!! 4 1.56%
 
Total:256
Michael-5 on 23 June 2013
ethomaz said:
LemonSlice said:

I see about half of GT5 sales come from the "rest of the world". That is amazing, I don't think there's any other popular game like that. Is it because of excessive bundling in those territories or is there some other reason? I know the series is popular everywhere, but that is a lot.

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/7678/gran-turismo-5/

It's wrong... VGC data is wrong.

The most sales come from Europe... I don't know why ioi swapped the numbers... before VGC showed 4+ million for Europe... I mean in UK only GT5 sold over 1 million... and it receive a award for over 500k in Germany... just that put GT5 at what VGC shows for Europe.

Europe real breakdown:

I'm not 100% sure about this, but does VGC put half the countries in Europe in "Rest of World"? I think VGC's Europe is just UK, Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, and a couple others. Countries like Bosnia, Poland, Ukraine, Romaina and split countries like Russia, and Turkey are not included in Europe sales because statirsitcs are too hard to track in those regions.

I can understand Russia, since by land it's mostly part of asia, but a large portion of its population is still part of Europe.

Shows how silly VGC tracking is.



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Talal on 23 June 2013

Not more than 7.5m. I'd say 7m.



ethomaz on 23 June 2013

Michael-5 said:

I'm not 100% sure about this, but does VGC put half the countries in Europe in "Rest of World"? I think VGC's Europe is just UK, Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, and a couple others. Countries like Bosnia, Poland, Ukraine, Romaina and split countries like Russia, and Turkey are not included in Europe sales because statirsitcs are too hard to track in those regions.

I can understand Russia, since by land it's mostly part of asia, but a large portion of its population is still part of Europe.

Shows how silly VGC tracking is.

But UK + Gemany > 1.5 million... VGC shows 1.9 million... 400k for Spaon, Portugal, France, Germany, Italy, etc? No way.

And before they showed 4 million for Europe in VG... that's only a bug I guess.



Michael-5 on 23 June 2013
ethomaz said:

Michael-5 said:

Wow, you think GT6 will sell 70% of it's lifetime stock in 2 months? I have to say I disagree, GT6 will sell well because of strong legs, not because of people who are waiting in line for a mignight launch. Like a bunch of people are saying, GT5 is already on the PS3, so I don't think people will rush to get GT6 right away. However I do think most GT5 owners will pick up GT6 eventually.

It will be interesting to see if GT5 tops GT4, GT4 is still 1 million units ahead of the shipped figure for GT5, so GT5 is going to need to sell 10% more units post GT6 launch. Possible, so it will be interesting.

.....wanna make a bet on Forza 5 sales? You said when you bet you loose, and we're not betting on a franchise you care too much for. I'll bet you that Forza Motorsport 5 will sell over 3 million units by December 31st  2014, and while I can't bet you on this, I think FM5 will outsell FM4 (which is currently at 4 million, may go to 4.5 million) within its lifetime.

My favorite GT is 3. GT3 is kinda the racing game that got me into cars, before GT3 I didn't know much about cars, and I think GT1 and 2's car list largely reflected the Japanese sports car market, and not the global one. GT4 was good too, but it was more or less GT3 with everything upgraded. GT5 was awesome too, but after FM3, I was expecting more from GT5. GT6 might become my favorite now, PD doesn't have to put in as many fake Lambo's and Ferrari's anymore. Too bad about Porsche, damn you EA!!!

I meant GT6 will have some more weeks of sales than GT5 and the userbase is bigger... if GT5 did 5.2m in 2010 then I think GT6 will do over 6 million and close to 7 million in 2013.

I think Forza will sell over 3 million and less than 5 million... your 4.5 million fits so I can't bet againt on that.

But I can bet that DriveClub will outsell Forza 5 but I need to think a little because there are a free version of DriveClub... I almost forget that.

How do you know GT6 will release early November? According to wikipedia, a couple websites who started taking pre-orders originaly had a release date of November 28, 2013. If GT6 releases around the same time in the year as GT5 did, do you think GT6 will sell more then GT5 in the same timeframe (5 weeks)?

We can't really debate DriveClub because it's free when PS4 releases for PS Plus members. Wow PS Plus is really good compared to the free games XBLG members get.

Say DriveClub is free for PS+ members for 2013 for PS4, do you still think it could sell more retail copies then Forza 5?



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ethomaz on 23 June 2013

Michael-5 said:

How do you know GT6 will release early November? According to wikipedia, a couple websites who started taking pre-orders originaly had a release date of November 28, 2013. If GT6 releases around the same time in the year as GT5 did, do you think GT6 will sell more then GT5 in the same timeframe (5 weeks)?

We can't really debate DriveClub because it's free when PS4 releases for PS Plus members. Wow PS Plus is really good compared to the free games XBLG members get.

Say DriveClub is free for PS+ members for 2013 for PS4, do you still think it could sell more retail copies then Forza 5?

Kaz said in a interview that GT5 just launched at BF week due a late fix... they planned to release the game in early November... makes no sense release at BF.... one or two weeks before is the best time.

GT6 is on track... no delay expected.

Yeah... it will sell more even if released at the same week but less than 7 million... 6.2 or 6.3 million.

I don't know about this Plus stuf... the free version have few cars and tracks... everhing else is the full game version... wihtout out that I'm sure DriveClub could outsell Forza 5 at retail but now with a free version... I don't know.



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Michael-5 on 23 June 2013
ethomaz said:

Michael-5 said:

I'm not 100% sure about this, but does VGC put half the countries in Europe in "Rest of World"? I think VGC's Europe is just UK, Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, and a couple others. Countries like Bosnia, Poland, Ukraine, Romaina and split countries like Russia, and Turkey are not included in Europe sales because statirsitcs are too hard to track in those regions.

I can understand Russia, since by land it's mostly part of asia, but a large portion of its population is still part of Europe.

Shows how silly VGC tracking is.

But UK + Gemany > 1.5 million... VGC shows 1.9 million... 400k for Spaon, Portugal, France, Germany, Italy, etc? No way.

And before they showed 4 million for Europe in VG... that's only a bug I guess.

Oh, yea maybe then. Maybe they just rushed the adjustment



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DyspraxicGamer on 28 June 2013

at least 10m I would have thought, be surprised if it doesn't match or better Gran Turismo 5 sales on the bigger userbase!



ghettoglamour on 28 June 2013
ethomaz said:

First Week: 3.3 million
First Year: 7 million
Lifetime: > 10 million (but this time less than 11 million)

+ GT5 will be the second best selling GT ever created. 
+ DriveClub will sell 5+ milllion lifetime.


Lol, ethomaz you crazy!! Don't try to claim "undertrackedz" when you see how wrong you were

 

I predict 6-7 million LTD for GT6 and as for Drive Club, I don't know, 2-3 million if bundled? The 1st Motorstorm had a lot more hype back when the PS3 launched.



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Dr.Grass on 28 June 2013

Whatever ethomaz says.



playnext3 on 28 June 2013

I predicte 5 to 10 million max, could get to 15 or 20 million if its for the ps4