Jay520 said:
Mazty said:
1. Basic statistics. Don't skip a week because you think you know what is going to happen....
2. A market is a dynamic thing - lifetime sales are useful, but only part of a bigger picture. And no, you can't predict what the difference is going to be. Who would have guessed the PS3 would have sold almost the exact amount as the 360 at the end of their cycles? You act as if it's a universal law that consoles have to sell within 1-2 mill of each other - go look at the 6th gen.
3. If it is objective than explain....Also flawed logic - bigger exclusive =/= fans will buy console for that game. It may be part of the reason, it may be the soul reason, but you are jumping to a hell of a conclusion by saying "Whoever has the bigger exclusive title obviously has more fans willing to buy a console for that exclusive"
4. Very true, but you don't need to compare Halo to GT to see that either are currently popular franchises that will succeed with at least one sequel on the next gen consoles. You can compare Halo to other xbox games to see it's success. Pitting it against a PS3 franchise of a different genre seems like shit stirring.
5. With such a minute difference in sales? Unlikely. If we compare GT to Zelda, than you have a more valid point, but picking apart tiny differences, as I said, seems more like finding fuel for console flames.
|
1. I didn't say you should skip a weeks. I said it is pointless to talk about it. If you see the sales for a week, and realize it's nearly exactly the same as the ten weeks prior, would you say it's "pointless" to talk about it.
2. True, no one would have predicted the PS3 would have caught the 360 maybe back in 2007-8. But for the past several years, people have anticipated this event to come, so it really isn't surprising at all. Not only is it not surprising, but it also doesn't mean a thing. When the PS3 passes the 360 what's going to happen? Nothing. So considering the fact that it's (a) not surprising, and (b) has no considerable impact on the real world, would you say it's "pointless" to talk about it when it does happen.
3. Obviously we cannot predict with certainty how loyal a fanbase is, but sales can give us a guideline. All things equal, It is more likely that an exclusive with a bigger fanbase will result in more fans willing to buy a new console.
4. It's important to know their relative difference because now we know that if both the PS4 and Nextbox launch with their respective big exclusives, they will be on even ground. Is that not an interesting fact?
5. You could switch it around if you want. Like I said above, you can say that because GT and Halo sell similarly, their impact on hardware sales will be fairly similar.
|
1. Not quite right; even if sales don't budge, it's still indicitive of a trend and that trend will always be informative.
2. Some people have anticipated it, not everyone, and I'm not sure anyone would have expected them to meet almost perfectly on the same value, give or take a few hundred thousand units. So yes, it is highly surprising - don't downplay it. Also it means a hell of a lot - the PS3 was releases 12 months AFTER the 360 and yet they sold almost exactly the same amount. Why is this? What did the PS3 offer that managed to negate the 360's year lead? IMO better media support out of the box (wifi, bluray and USB support). I digress, but am showing you how those figures open up many interesting avenues of discussion.
3. Yes BUT why compare Halo Reach to Gran Turismo? The logic is flawed - should you not be comparing the best selling game of both consoles? Why Reach and not Halo 3? I'm going to backtrack here and admit I overlooked something though; as reach is the most recent in the Halo franchise, that is relevant compared to Gran Tursimo as you said it shows popularity and therefore potential console sales, although it still is a long stretch as you're comparing an FPS to a racing simulator which, as you may know, is comparing two vastly different audiences. Point being, expecting them to react in the same way in terms of buying a new console may be flawed as the players are really quite different. Hopefully that makes sense.
4. Possibly. Again it's a case of variables - what do the new consoles offer, what do the new games offer etc. We have to consider that Halo 3 sold more than Reach so that shows a decline in fanbase rather than an increase in it, ergo a release Halo may not do as well as Reach.
5. I'll admit again I was being hasty and short sighted to be honest; I was too quick to jump down your throat. Really I think it can be said that comparing the two head to head for no reason other than directly comparing sales is a fucking waste of time (as I suspect has gone on a few pages back although haven't checked) but using them as overall indictors to see how they may influence future consoles is a good idea as it may indicate how they may help to sell consoles. Cheers for making me see differently!
