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Forums - Sales Discussion - COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

tbone51 on 29 July 2016
Kerotan said:
Butcher2709 said:

Oh yeah I meant on COMG, for all we know any game could be misrepresented on the COMG list. See Falcom games.

FF15 definitely under performing but there are factors which may make comg show it to be worse than it is.  

 

1: closed stores,  so naturally less pre orders 

2: higher digital sales.  So more people pre order on psn instead 

3: big SE promotions with limited editions sold from their own website 

4: the general better ratio ps4 games get now.

 

With these factors for example,  instead of an expect 400k opening it could end up with 600/700k+ including digital.  

 

Not guaranteed but it's possible. 

Points 1-4 wasnt used for YW but allowed for FFXV? (Or all ps4 games)

 

As for your example 400k would be a huge flop fw with digital and why expect digital ratio being so high? Digital is usually high when the games are sold out in retailers and im sure ff will have at least a million shipped.

 

That said it should still be closer to 1mil fw, not 400k (or 600/700k)



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tak13 on 29 July 2016
Kerotan said:
Butcher2709 said:

Oh yeah I meant on COMG, for all we know any game could be misrepresented on the COMG list. See Falcom games.

FF15 definitely under performing but there are factors which may make comg show it to be worse than it is.  

 

1: closed stores,  so naturally less pre orders 

2: higher digital sales.  So more people pre order on psn instead 

3: big SE promotions with limited editions sold from their own website 

4: the general better ratio ps4 games get now.

 

With these factors for example,  instead of an expect 400k opening it could end up with 600/700k+ including digital.  

 

Not guaranteed but it's possible. 

i would have partially agreed with these points if we hadn't had  YW3 paradigm... ;)



tbone51 on 29 July 2016
Jranation said:

 

Are they even advertising this game? 

The chart is a week old? Ff is at 193p now. What is the other 2 at? 



Kerotan on 29 July 2016

@Butcher just for clarification

I'm talking if it ended with 400 points as a random example you might expect a 400k opening but with the points above would end up 600k+.

So if 600pt and an expected 600k opening it would probably open around 800k.

Some people will inevitably take my comment literally instead of the point behind it.



tbone51 on 29 July 2016
Kerotan said:
@Butcher just for clarification

I'm talking if it ended with 400 points as a random example you might expect a 400k opening but with the points above would end up 600k+.

So if 600pt and an expected 600k opening it would probably open around 800k.

Some people will inevitably take my comment literally instead of the point behind it.

Tbf you never said anything about comg ratio (1p to 1k sales). That said my bad. I do think itll pick up soon. Ending with 400p for example here i can see it doing retail 700k. Which is high for a ratio here. It has 2 months left so there is still time. Hopefully it gets around 600p or higher. But im rooting for p5 more. Though im still getting ff come sept



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Ryng on 29 July 2016
Kerotan said:
@Butcher just for clarification

I'm talking if it ended with 400 points as a random example you might expect a 400k opening but with the points above would end up 600k+.

So if 600pt and an expected 600k opening it would probably open around 800k.

Some people will inevitably take my comment literally instead of the point behind it.

You are seriusly expect a 1500:1 ratio for a game like Final Fantasy? No way.... Not even Yokai Watch 3 did that much, and Yokai watch always has a better ratio.

Final Fantasy XV should have a 1000:1 ratio or so. If it end with 400 points, then you can be sure it will be lucky with 500k first week.



Super_Boom on 29 July 2016
tbone51 said:

Where is the FF report? Surprised your not talking about that. Lol
tak13 said:

By the way, have you ever said anything about the FF15 trouble here? I remember you, posting many sorrowful comments about YW trouble... Don't you care or worry?
Jranation said:

Its flopping too much or this frog to handle. Well glad he was more interested on Yokai Watch than Final Fantasy. 

Okay guys, stop the personal shots. 

This goes for everyone, not just the three I'm replying to. I don't follow this thread, and honestly don't know the full history here, but it seems to me the point-based nature of this thread really brings about a console war atmosphere by default. I don't really care if it's in good fun, heck, that's a big reason this forum exists. But if you're going to make mean-spirited remarks about one game, you can be sure the same will be done to your game of choice. 

Basically...if you want to keep this thread fun, stop taking things so personally. Root for your games, but if you're going to act like a console warrior, expect to be treated like one.

Kerotan, I'll PM you shortly. Don't respond to this exchange here.



NNID: Zephyr25 / PSN: Zephyr--25 / Switch: SW-4450-3680-7334

Teeqoz on 29 July 2016

....Anywho, I decided it would ge fun to see what VGCharterz said about their expectations to YW3 and FFXV now that we have a clearer picture of how FFXV will perform/know how YW3 performed.

claudius_I said:
Prediction

Final Fantasy XV 920pt

Just a *liiiiittle bit* optimistic

Kerotan said:
claudius_I said:
Prediction

Final Fantasy XV 920pt

I'll predict 1,100

The difference between these two predictions are about equal to how many poibts FFXV currently has. Think about that.

Meret said:
Soon Yokai Watch 3 will destroy FFXV on COMG chart.

Meret was correct (given they had different launch dates, we never saw them compete). He just forgot to say that it would also destroy retailer's profits because it was so massively overshipped and sold so far below expectations.

tbone51 said:
think-man said:

Well I don't think Yokai Watch 3 will destroy FFXV anyway lol it might beat it but 'destroy' is a bit of wishful thinking on Merets part.

 

Destroy? Nah but it will beat it very comfortably imo in japan. FFXV up in the air. It could do as little as 1.2mil lifetime, the average guess 1.4mil-1.9mil lifetime, or as high as 2mil-2.5mil lifetime. YW3 should do minimum 3mil. So it'll "Destroy" it, if FFXV bombs with under 1.4mil. That said i dont think the comparison makes sense anymore. FFXV should only be worried about splatoon now for #1 Console game of the generation lol

Tbone's range for FFXV was 1.2-2.5 million lifitime. Bomb limit was less than 1.4 million.

Meanwhile, YW3 would sell a minimum of 3 million.

Boutros said:

Yo-Kai Watch is the most popular franchise in Japan right now. It will beat everything this year. I don't know why FFXV is singled out.

Get rekt, Pokémon. YW domination.

horuhe said:

I know it's not a Yo-Kai Watch thread, but I do think this third release will have a better opening than the second but worse legs. Not too much worse though, mostly because the update gonna give the game a little bit of lifespan but the Yo-Kai Watch franchise has diminished a little bit in last months.

Speaks for itself. YW3 to do a bit more than 1.2 million FW, maybe like 2.5 million lifetime?

VXIII said:
think-man said:
Can FFXV get 2500 points?

Highly unlikely. I don't expect it surpass XIII. I predict that XV will end up between 1500 and 1700 points. The market is different than it used to be in 2009.

Just a *liiiiiittle bit* more optimistic.

Jranation said:
BraLoD said:

I wonder if YW3 will have those 100pts days close to launch.

 

Most likely. It got 1/5 of that on its 2nd at Comg! With 80 more days to go! 

I'm fairly sure YW3 didn't get any of those 100pts days. Maybe I missed them.

 

Not to call anyone out, I'm just doing this in good fun guys



Jranation on 29 July 2016
tbone51 said:
Jranation said:

 

Are they even advertising this game? 

The chart is a week old? Ff is at 193p now. What is the other 2 at? 

Oh wow! Im amazed of how much it moved! XD 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Jranation on 29 July 2016
Teeqoz said:

....Anywho, I decided it would ge fun to see what VGCharterz said about their expectations to YW3 and FFXV now that we have a clearer picture of how FFXV will perform/know how YW3 performed.

claudius_I said:
Prediction

Final Fantasy XV 920pt

Just a *liiiiittle bit* optimistic

Kerotan said:

I'll predict 1,100

The difference between these two predictions are about equal to how many poibts FFXV currently has. Think about that.

Meret said:
Soon Yokai Watch 3 will destroy FFXV on COMG chart.

Meret was correct (given they had different launch dates, we never saw them compete). He just forgot to say that it would also destroy retailer's profits because it was so massively overshipped and sold so far below expectations.

tbone51 said:

 

Destroy? Nah but it will beat it very comfortably imo in japan. FFXV up in the air. It could do as little as 1.2mil lifetime, the average guess 1.4mil-1.9mil lifetime, or as high as 2mil-2.5mil lifetime. YW3 should do minimum 3mil. So it'll "Destroy" it, if FFXV bombs with under 1.4mil. That said i dont think the comparison makes sense anymore. FFXV should only be worried about splatoon now for #1 Console game of the generation lol

Tbone's range for FFXV was 1.2-2.5 million lifitime. Bomb limit was less than 1.4 million.

Meanwhile, YW3 would sell a minimum of 3 million.

Boutros said:

Yo-Kai Watch is the most popular franchise in Japan right now. It will beat everything this year. I don't know why FFXV is singled out.

Get rekt, Pokémon. YW domination.

horuhe said:

I know it's not a Yo-Kai Watch thread, but I do think this third release will have a better opening than the second but worse legs. Not too much worse though, mostly because the update gonna give the game a little bit of lifespan but the Yo-Kai Watch franchise has diminished a little bit in last months.

Speaks for itself. YW3 to do a bit more than 1.2 million FW, maybe like 2.5 million lifetime?

VXIII said:

Highly unlikely. I don't expect it surpass XIII. I predict that XV will end up between 1500 and 1700 points. The market is different than it used to be in 2009.

Just a *liiiiiittle bit* more optimistic.

Jranation said:

 

Most likely. It got 1/5 of that on its 2nd at Comg! With 80 more days to go! 

I'm fairly sure YW3 didn't get any of those 100pts days. Maybe I missed them.

 

Not to call anyone out, I'm just doing this in good fun guys

 

The year of flops! Hopefully Pokemon can save us all!!! 



Pocky Lover Boy!