If MS is looking for outside exclusive content, then I am sure they will either purchase the IP for themselves or use their existing catalog and hire a developer to do it. I do agree that this would be something MS has done a while ago at least a year + out. In order to fill up the launch window trying to do something this year would not reap results until 18 months or more

As for MS doing business with UB. I think you people feel like business are friends. This is not the case. UB is free to make as many deals as they want with as many console makers willing to bring the cash. Just because UB is taking Sony money does not mean they will not take MS. They would just do something different.

No 3rd party developer is stupid enough to have a game exclusive to 1 platform. This goes especially for already established franchises. Have you see how Bioshock and Mass Effect sell? The sales don't match the hype and reviews.

A new Ip and and Gears.

Let's use Black Ops 2 as an example. The game sold 10million+ on PS3. For Microsoft to make that exclusive they would have to pony up $600million dollars. Of course this doesn't take into account the cut that retail gets so in reality Activision wouldn't get the whole $600m. But still, its a high price to pay and that doesn't even include DLC sales. Then you have to factor in the damage this would do to the brand on that platform and the fact that not everyone will buy an Xbox to play COD. It's also worth considering that those $10m Black Ops 2 sales on PS3 wouldn't have tansferred to the 360 version.

So in order for this to be worth it for Activision, Microsoft would need to pay per game. So $600m * 5 games over 5 years = $3Billion

So no, Microsoft can't really buy EVERYTHING. Not everything is up for sale.

Gears of War
Left 4 Dead
Mass Effect
Alan Wake
BattleBlock Theater
Trials Evolution
Minecraft

Etc, etc. 

Microsoft pays thme money to make it worth it.

All those games would have been much more popular/profitable if made multi-platform. Minecraft for example would sell very well on Nintendo consoles. 

Given how divided the market is right now geographically I think any major publisher would be crazy to fully back any of the big three. I just do not see anyone would do such a bold move.

Not necessarily.   Microsoft does two things when it comes to buying exclusives.  They pay them a ton of money and they advertise those games, and when it comes to advertising I don't believe there is another publisher as good as them in the gaming business.

Minecraft didnt really need advertising though seeing as how youtube covered that for free

All I'm saying is yes there can be success and Im sure they still get money since MSFT is likely paying a lot, so i wouldn't call it dumb.

Without knowing how much those games would cost to develop, market, and release on PS3, plus how many copies they'd sell, plus how much incentives exchanged hands for MS to make it worth their while, there's no way you can say that factually.

Your CoD reference for example. Yeah, now, 6-7 years after the PS3 released, the franchise sells 10 million a pop on the console. But what about at launch? CoD2 didn't break 2 million on the 360. Activision is not going to expect those type of numbers for years after the new consoles are out. The perfect time for either Sony or MS to swoop in and offer some incentive to keep a game on one platform.

They will buy some Japanese games im pretty sure Microsoft still wants that market to be at least important... 4m sales on Japan would be good.